Jane Corwin is, of course, the Republican/Conservative running in this race – which is getting people nervous because of the latest Siena poll*. To which I say: then make sure that you go out and vote.
And if you don’t want Democrats to win elections, then do something about it. I mention this last bit because there are roughly sixteen million Left-pundits out there who are slavering at the mouth at the opportunity to turn this particular election into an informal referendum on the Right; they were denied this with the Prosser/Kloppenburg election, so they’re even more anxious than usual. If Corwin loses tonight, expect relieved howling from the Democrats. Which will be annoying, but that’s what happens when you lose races.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*As for the PPP poll… well. As God is my witness, I’d still be shrugging if the numbers went the other way: PPP had a pretty good record last cycle… except for special elections, particularly in New York, and particularly for three-way races. I think that Tom Jensen may be not mentioning that as loudly as he might, but can you blame him?
Jeff Emanuel
Dems are claiming this is proof of how unpopular the Ryan plan
earlgrey (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 9:47AM EDT (link)and its perceived impact on Medicare. People that have been leaving Davis camp have moved into the D column rather than the R column.
From comments I have been reading on other blogs, some Rs in the area are claiming to be upset with the NY GOP and see Corwin as an establishment candidate. One claimed that she bought herself the primary over a NY assemblyman, and that she is not likable. I have also heard that she doesn’t seem to have a lot of advertising or visible presence in the campaing.
At the same time, I am starting to get nervous for all our freshmen GOP that voted for the Ryan plan. If in fact this is driving people into the D column than we have some work to do.
Medicare, The Budget, and The Innumerate Electorate
Ausonius (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 10:54AM EDT (link)Assorted polls say the same thing: America wants smaller, less expensive government, but does not want to cut Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. which account for over 2/3 of the budget.
If they want to keep national defense spending intact, then they refuse to touch 85% of the budget.
No politician has yet had the courage to teach basic budgetary arithmetic to the electorate, or to explain e.g. that “foreign aid” is not half of the budget.
By lacking the courage to explain this, Republicans therefore will lose the debate, and may have already lost it. Perhaps only a total collapse of the system will awaken America to its ill logic of wanting ever more hand-outs without paying for them.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
AND…Know Your Czars…Before They Hit BIG BRObama’s Unemployment Line in November: http://www.czarcards.us/
I know I will get attacked...
neoavatara (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 10:04AM EDT (link)But this is why conservatives need to unite.
I consider myself a Tea Party member, but dividing our caucus gets idiots like Liberal Kathy Hochul elected. This is not about Medicare, or any issue. Do you really think that Corwin would be losing if the 13% going to the Tea Party weere going to her? We would be RUNNING AWAY with this election.
It is time to unite, behind a common conservative banner. Otherwise, we deserve to lose to the liberals.
www.neoavatara.com/blog
I don't find it implausible
junkbondtrader41 Tuesday, May 24th at 10:09AM EDT (link)that there’s an element of Mediscare backlash in here. After all, if bringing Medicare into line with reality were popular, it would’ve never gotten OUT of line in the first place.
At the same time, this is getting extremely frustrating. Just when we think the American people are finally educated that there’s no bottomless pot of money out there that the world will continue to shovel our way – because, by golly, we’re the U.S.A.! – we find ourselves right back here.
“No, no! Cut spending on the ‘waste, fraud, and abuse!’ I didnt’ mean for you to cut MY goodies!”
If the American experiment does end with a whimper, with Greece like crowds in the streets demanding non-existent money, it will be a sorry sight indeed!
We're doomed because the Stupid Party is timid and inarticulate.
dirkbelig Tuesday, May 24th at 10:22AM EDT (link)The main reason the Dems have been able to get away not passing a budget in over TWO YEARS, choosing to demagogue whatever the GOP does to save the nation from their fiscal treason, is because the timid, inarticulate Stupid Party is terrified of the JournoList media. (This story is kid gloves compared to what will come to protect their beloved Obama next year.)
It doesn’t help that Newt Gingrich set the media meme perfectly for the Left with his suicide bombing of Paul Ryan. With that one act, he joins John “I can’t oppose my dear friends from across the aisle” McCain in the Vichy RINO Hall of Shame.
As the Stupid Partiers forget why they were elected and who sent them there and turn into the weaselly RINOs they are genetically predisposed to be, our slide into financial ruin is assured. We. Are. Screwed.
“This would be a great job if it weren’t for the ****ing customers.” – Randal Graves, “Clerks”
You know what would have made that comment great, dirkbelig?
Moe Lane (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 10:37AM EDT (link)Ending it with “And that’s why I started doing [X],” with X being defined as “Engaged myself in the political process on a local level, and in a fashion besides complaining about the problem on a national weblog.”
Because, honestly, nobody bothers to care if people are just ticked off. They only start caring if people are ticked off and do something about it.
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
And after we sacrifice time and treasure...
dirkbelig Tuesday, May 24th at 11:42AM EDT (link)…we’ll have more timid, frightened, inarticulate Stupid Partiers scared of their shadows and bleating to the JournoList media, “We’re not with those crazy teabaggers! We’re not extreme right-wing social engineers! We’ll play nice! Just don’t hit us!”
The way the GOP has moved decisively to collaborate with the Dems in the lame duck; collapsed on every issue to the point where Cryin’ John Fakenbake’s grand CR deal actually increased spending in FY2011; state party hacks are redrawing districts to leave freshman Tea Party folks unlikely to be re-elected; over and over, the Establishment is begging for the conservatives votes and immediately giving us the back of their hands, at best.
As Erick wrote within the past hour, “At a time when Senate Republicans refuse to lead and Mitch McConnell is doing his best to marginalize the solid conservatives…” This is the party we’re supposed to subsume our values and place our faith and expend our limited resources to elevate to positions of power where they can better betray us? Pass. I’d be better off sending drinks to hot babes at the bar because perhaps, if lucky, I’ll get screwed in a more agreeable manner.
I know that a 3rd party isn’t a viable option and will only guarantee Democratic rule over the Republic’s final days before going the way of Rome, but there is so little to be enthusiastic about from the Stupid Party. Yeah, Rubio and Christie and Jindall and Ryan are awesome, but they aren’t in positions (or interested in moving into positions) that can save us. Instead we have McConnell and Cryin’ John and Newt reminding the little people that they’re our masters, not the other way around. Taking down Bob Bennett for Mike Lee did what exactly to turn the ship away from the falls exactly?
The disease that has crippled the GOP is terminal. When Newt Gingrich, the man who retook Congress and forced Bill Clinton into welfare reform and balanced budgets, is indistinguishable from an MSNBC drone, sitting on the couch with Pelosi, pandering to ethanol moochers, and providing the sound bite upon which at least 240 House campaign ads next year will be framed on, then what’s the freaking point?
I realized some time ago that I’d never voted FOR a Republican in my life. They’ve always just been the default “Not The Democrat” option and sometimes – Perot in ’92 (I understand Obama’s appeal to politically ignorant voters from my vote for him) and Libertarian in ’04 – they weren’t good enough for that. If it wasn’t for Palin’s presence on the ticket and the knowledge that Obama would be a nation-killing disaster, I wouldn’t have voted for McCain either. I look at the field for 2012 and think anyone who thinks this is the best we’ve got is delusional.
“This would be a great job if it weren’t for the ****ing customers.” – Randal Graves, “Clerks”
Whoosh. [nt]
Moe Lane (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 12:11PM EDT (link)nt
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
Didn't get the message, did you?
Bill S (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 12:13PM EDT (link)If you don’t see progress from 2010, I don’t know what to do for you.
And if you’ve never voted for a Republican, I’d say you’re on the wrong web site.
“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins
What?
Goldwater_Conservative (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 12:26PM EDT (link)“Yeah, Rubio and Christie and Jindall and Ryan are awesome, but they aren’t in positions (or interested in moving into positions) that can save us.”
Rubio just got there, Christie and Jindal are govennors (thats kinda important) and Ryan chairs the most important committee in the house right now. Reading your reasoning it is no suprise to me that it took getting Palin on the ticket to vote against Obama in 08.
I'm surprised that there are any (R) voters
steve010 (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 10:39AM EDT (link)left in west/central NY. NY in 1980 had 39 reps to the house. In 2012, they’ll have 27. In 1980, NY had 41 electoral votes, now 29. Most places in NY are dominated by govt workers and others dependent on govt. All the producers have left or are on their way out.
If Jane loses, it's because of 'R' stupidity
SKully (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 11:15AM EDT (link)Within hours of the Chris Lee debacle, media were reporting that Republican leaders had selected Jane Corwin. Local tea party leaders were publicly and privately begging leadership to slow down, and let all candidates come forth and be heard. We were ignored, and THAT made big news.
It is no secret that the local top R’s have no love or respect for the tea party. That’s why Jack is in it, and that’s why David Bellavia (an otherwise pretty sound conservative) has endorsed Jack. Jane was gifted this seat because it was ‘her time’.
Don’t take that to mean she does not have the support of ‘real’ tea party people. There are just way too many here in WNY that don’t like the process, and I suspect that’s why Davis is playing right into the Dem’s hands.
On the other hand – Kathy Hochul has a lot of support in Erie County, because she has admittedly done a great job as county clerk. There are very noticeable improvements at the DMV and other offices. Jane has zero accomplishments as a member of the NYS Assembly due to being in a very small minority.
The national media can make this all about Medicare if they want, but those of us in the local trenches know the real reasons. This exact scenario was called quite accurately back in early Feb by a prominent local tea party spokesperson, when the Republicans refused (again) to respect the people.
“Do not separate text from historical background. If you do, you will have perverted and subverted the Constitution, which can only end in a distorted, bastardized form of illegitimate government.” James Madison
So I take it you ar e in or near the area or
earlgrey (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 11:49AM EDT (link)know someone that is. I have read similar thinking on other blogs about this race. Although, I hadn’t heard the praise for Hochul. Somehow the NY GOP manages to lose about every special eleciton that comes along. There needs to be a shake up there. Anything going on in that area. New active party members?
So much to do, so little time, so few people
SKully (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 12:12PM EDT (link)I’m iin the next district from NY26. However, advertising has been all over the place for all 3 candidates. I’m not making phone calls anymore because it is turning people off to get 3-4 calls a day.
Repub’s messed up this campaign so bad so many ways. The turning point came a couple weeks ago in a very stupid maneuver by Jane’s chief of staff, compounded by the County Chairman. At that point, both Undecided and Davis votes started going over to Hochul.
We may still be able to pull this one out, but it doesn’t change how broke the local and NY Republican party is.
I am a Erie County committeeman, but I very rarely get consulted on ANY votes. The ones I am notified about are already done-deals. I have recruited others to join, but we need more numbers at the local level.
I seriously believe there has been significant ‘D’ infiltration into ‘R’ party leadership, especially in certain towns. We are badly outnumbered and need more to change the tide.
“Do not separate text from historical background. If you do, you will have perverted and subverted the Constitution, which can only end in a distorted, bastardized form of illegitimate government.” James Madison
Is 42% the new Dem mandate?
Kyle-MI (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 3:18PM EDT (link)This is what the polls say the support for the Dem candidate is. How can anyone claim that the Ryan plan for Medicare is repudiated when a combined majority of the GOP and the Tea Party candidates is over 50%? Is the disingenuous Tea Party candidate running against the proposed Medicare changes?
I will take another look if the Dem gets past 50% in the election, but otherwise it looks like pretty weak spin to me.
Turnout is Heavy
proudgop (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 4:46PM EDT (link)Many NY papers are reporting turnout is heavy today in the district. The district only has 26,000 more registered Republicans then Dems
Keep an eye on Monroe and Erie country; Monroe needs to get a big turnout for Corwin while Dem is expected to win Erie by big margin but if not then it bodes well for Corwin
do you know when the polls close?
gekster (Diary) Tuesday, May 24th at 5:13PM EDT (link)When can we expect results?
They say Republicans are for the rich, Democrats are for the poor.
If they need more voters,
then they have to make more of who they are for.
We are there in the various Tea Party groups, leaderless, but not rudderless.
We steer always toward the Constitutional principles this nation was founded upon.
Erick Brockway
I’ve gone from
“Hope and Change” to
“Hopeless and Changeless”
Hi, Moe!
David Kilmer Tuesday, May 24th at 7:16PM EDT (link)I’m an NY-26 resident, and I did my part this morning.
Also, I consider myself a “producer” (as I produce things for a living), so there are at least some of those left up here. I’m “dependent on government”, but hey, aren’t we all?