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The DSCC Limited Resources Map.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  June 29th, 2011 at 12:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Consider this map (via Politico) showing what the DSCC calls a “Limited Resource Plan” for the 2012 elections:

 

…which is, of course, being waved around by the DSCC for the purpose of convincing wary Democratic donors that donating money in 2012 to the group that lost seven* Senate seats and struck out on four prime pickups** in 2010 is a good idea. This did not sit well with the Ben Nelson campaign in Nebraska, which (nervously) pointed out that taking this map seriously suggests that DOOM was coming not only to Nebraska, but Virginia and New Mexico as well.

Well, yes.

In point of fact, the DSCC had two maps, but the first one is easily dismissed as merely being a visual representation of the promise that, if fully funded, the Democratic party has every intention of running a candidate in every Senate race in 2012. This is a revelation roughly on par with the one about water being wet; besides, they needed it mostly to contrast with the aforementioned Limited Resource Plan. Which represents a very interesting set of assumptions, if you look at each of the eleven (not ten) races listed in it. Going down the list (race rankings from here):

  • Connecticut. Open seat: Joe Lieberman (D***) is retiring. Likely Democratic. The Democrats are expected to win this, but it’s competitive.
  • Delaware. Incumbent Democrat: Tom Carper (D). Solid Democratic. There was widespread speculation in 2010 that AG Beau Biden (son of VP Joe Biden) would be seeking a Senate seat in 2012; while Carper is showing no signs of retiring, neither is he notably active. But Biden doing a primary upset would make this seat competitive; 2012 is not 2010, and the Biden brand has taken a hit lately.
  • Florida. Incumbent Democrat: Bill Nelson (D). Lean Democratic. Competitive race, and the Republicans are going to be going after this one hammer and tongs.
  • Maryland. Incumbent Democrat: Ben Cardin (D). Solid Democratic. Cardin’s a freshman Senator… and an undistinguished one, at that. This is one race where I disagree with Cook; Cardin has vulnerabilities, and lacks the force of personality that would protect him from the consequences of them.
  • Massachusetts. Incumbent Republican: Scott Brown (R). Toss-up. This is one of the two races where the Democrats have a realistic shot at flipping a seat. More to the point; there is not a scenario in existence where the Democrats are not going to try to get what they consider Ted Kennedy’s seat back.
  • Missouri. Incumbent Democrat: Claire McCaskill (D). Toss-up. She’s probably doomed, but the Democrats are running out of Midwest and she’s less doomed than Ben Nelson is.
  • Montana. Incumbent Democrat: Jon Tester (D). Toss-up. Tester is a freshman who has made enough dumb votes to put him on the cusp of DOOM.
  • Nevada. Open seat, kind of: Dean Heller (R) was appointed to it after Ensign resigned more or less in disgrace. Toss-up. The other only real Democratic potential pickup this cycle.
  • New Jersey. Incumbent Democrat: Robert Menendez (D). Solid Democratic. This is the other race where I contest Cook; Menendez is a freshman, and rumors of corruption surround him. It’s also going to be his first election since they went out and arrested Hudson County’s Democratic party leadership in 2009.
  • Ohio. Incumbent Democrat: Sherrod Brown (D). Lean Democratic. Ohio is a battleground state; Brown is a freshman with a voting record that pleases progressives than it does Ohioans, if the 2010 elections are any kind of benchmark.
  • West Virginia. Incumbent Democrat: Joe Manchin (D). Toss-up. I actually contest Cook’s rating on this one the other way: while technically a freshman, Manchin is probably more secure in retaining the seat than he’s given credit for. Still, a competitive race.

I went through all of those to show that the Limited Resources Map, contra Ben Nelson, can be legitimately seen as being the Democratic firewall. It is merely Nelson’s bad luck that he’s on the other side of it; and it’s not surprising that his supposed counter-examples New Mexico and Virginia (both open seats in states that trended Red in the last election cycle) are likewise on the other side (I’d add the open seat in Wisconsin, too). Or that, when push comes to shove, that the Democrats are conceding not just North Dakota, but eight out of ten GOP-held seats.

Or, put another way: the only way that the Democrats ‘messed up’ here was in actually admitting that Nebraska has been written off, a year and a half in.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*Massachusetts counts.

**Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, & Ohio.

***I like Joe Lieberman all right and everything, but his ‘Independent’ status is a polite fiction.

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COMMENTS

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  • chipbennett

    I don’t get why Missourii is being rated as a toss-up.

    Claire McCaskill is in big trouble in 2012, and she knows it. She won in 2006 by pretending to be a fiscally conservative democrat, but has since then abandoned all such pretense.

    Add to McCaskill’s inherent vulnerability a solid slate of good, conservative candidates*, and I would consider Missouri to be at least leans Republican.

    * Todd Akin for Senate

  • swami7774

    Brown is more popular in the state than he is with conservative voters nationally. He’s amassed a pretty good war chest. His potential opponents look like munchkins right now. The one to emerge will probably be Newton Mayor Setti Warren, who could tap into the state’s recent affinity for voting for black Democrats(Obama, Deval Patrick twice). And Patrick will always have the compliant Globe behind him.
    But Brown remains the most popular politician in the state. I’d say right now he wins something like 54-46.

  • freemanja1991

    In CT, would Governor Rell or Foley be good candidates, or LT Gov Feedle(is that how its spelled)? I’d Love to See McMahon win personally she seemed to be a solid pro growth candidate.

    In Maryland what about the guy who challanged Steny Hoyer, Charles, Lo…. something.

    I think Newt’s idea of getting 60 seats could be a solid possilbilty. Very few Dems seats are completely safe.

  • rightwingmom52

    The story is out that unnamed UT (that’s Big Orange, Volunteers country in TN for you non-football fans) officials have approached Shuler to become the new AD. While I would love to see another (R) in the house, we don’t need a lib at UT. But I’ll put country over football – this time. Here’s the story:

    http://bleacherreport.com/tb/ba36L

    Moe, I was looking for a place to post this, and here seemed the best fit I could find at the moment.

  • powertothepeople

    is not that bad all things considered. We could def do much worse and he would not be a bad republican if he were to switch parties like he considered a few years ago.

    I do not like his energy policies but he has been a good ally to the unborn including voting against embryonic stem cell research. He has also been quite strong with 2nd amendment rights as well. His economic policy needs much improving, but again, for a dem he is not that bad and I would hate to see who takes his place unless it is a republican with some backbone.

  • rightwingmom52

    Shuler is not as liberal as many others, but I’m at the point where I fail to see how anyone with a conscience, particularly those who claim to be pro life, can align themselves with the Democratic Party and its anti-life platform. If he moves on or is defeated, I agree that we need a conservative with spine in his place.

  • http://www.redstate.com/jcrestonm jcrestonm

    Thanks bunches for posting this. I have been longing for more talk about Congressional Races instead of the GOP Primaries.

    I noticed that you did not include Indiana in your list of eleven Senate races. I think that may be a competitive race after we trounce Lugar in the primaries.

  • unclefred

    Brown is a serious underdog in Mass.

    First a large number of the people that voted for him in 2009 had very unrealistic expectations of who they elected. Brown is a moderate republican. I hesitate to label him a RINO because he is about as Republican as you are going to find in Mass. Something to keep in mind about Romney. Anyway, a lot of people busted their humps to elect him expecting him to be a conservative. He isn’t and they are very disappointed. When he was running in late 2008 and the beginning of 2009 he had talk radio behind him and a ground swell of support. Talk radio for the most part doesn’t mention his name, and some of the people who supported him are talking about running someone against him on the right in the primary.

    Second, the democrat machine was largely unprepared for Scott in 2009, by 2010 they were ready and there were no Republican upsets. Not one upset in a year when the Republicans picked up 66 seats nationally. The machine has been laying the ground work to crush Brown since the day after the 2010 election.

    At this point, best case, I put him behind any democrat 52-48. Maybe he can win, but realistically we better not need that seat, because we are almost certain to lose it. Nor should the national committee invest one thin dime in Brown’s effort. He has a large war chest let him use it. Every dime at the national level is better spent elsewhere.

    Don’t get me wrong I hope he wins. I would love for a Repub to sit in that seat for six more years. But his odds are long and he is in the crosshairs.

  • powertothepeople

    the democratic party is the main factor in over 51 million abortions or rather the cause of over 51 murders of our young.

    As to Shuler, in many of your areas he would be considered a good republican choice, but around here he is too moderate in some things and too liberal in his energy and spending policies to be considered a republican. But because he is quite right of most democrats, the area keeps electing him. Should he leave, I am afraid the folks in that area will continue with traditional voting and give us a much more liberal democrat.

  • powertothepeople

    should not have been “your areas” and since my brain is fired tonight, I will have to correct here. Should have been “in many areas of the country” ………..

  • rightwingmom52

    .

  • freemanja1991

    and leaves before his term is over, and we can get it in a special.