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First North Carolina redistricting map!

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  July 1st, 2011 at 04:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

And it firmly embraces the old folk saying: What goes around, comes around.

This is the first of three new maps (all of which will be coming out of the newly Republican-controlled state legislature):

To give you an idea of the shift (which is already forecasting DOOM for at least three North Carolina Democrats), here’s the old map:

The background on this is that when North Carolina gained a seat after the 2000 Census, a combination of the racial gerrymandering mandated by the Civil Rights Act, and an unusually large amount of partisan greed on the part of the then-Democratic controlled legislature, resulted in the embarrassingly unsubtle second map found above. Unfortunately for the Democrats, they had not particularly taken into account the possibility that in 2011 the Republicans would be in control of the legislature and have blood in their eye; they also did not consider that the Governor may not veto the redistricting results. As for legal challenges… if you look at the maps you’ll see that the 1st and 12th districts (both majority-minority districts) are largely unscathed. Personally, I find majority-minority districts to be racist as all get-out – the implication that African-American candidates need to be coddled is deeply offensive to me* – but I’m in the, as they say, minority on this one.

Bottom line: if the new map or one like it passes – and it’s hard to argue that this is not an improvement over the cynical monstrosity that preceded it – then four Democrats (Mike McIntyre, Brad Miller, Larry Kissell, Heath Shuler) are in varying-but-at-least-severe trouble. Which is, of course, an absolute tragedy.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*A shame that it’s not offensive to liberal Democrats.

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COMMENTS

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  • electionwatch

    We should be able to lock onto three seats from this map (Shuler, Miller, Kissell) without much trouble. McIntyre’s seat may be a little tougher to pick up, but, still should be a good battle next year. It looks like Republicans will be able to pick up four seats here next year. Pretty good! All of these new districts went for McCain with at least 55%. The old districts had some going with lest than 48% for McCain in 2008. They also made Renee Ellmers district much safer for her, meaning the seat we picked up last year from Bob “The Yeller” Etheridge should be kept safe for the Republicans.

    Another thing: Although G.K. Butterfield’s district is a Majority-Minority district already, and will be again under this new map, it re-elected him with only 59% of the vote last year, giving the Republican candidate 41% of the vote. Do you people think we should have left this district alone (which they largely did), made it more Democratic (which they did just a bit under the new plan), or made it a little more Republican, keeping it a Majority-Minority district, to try to pick it up?

    And, why would they try to make David Price’s district (district 4 currently) safer? It’s a D+5 district currently, and they make it more Democratic under the new map. I think we could try to pick up his seat too if the new map tried to sucessfully, while picking up the other four seats. This would make 9 Republican-safe seats, 2 tossup seats (with Price’s included if they made it safer), and two safe Democratic seats. BTW, look how gerrymandered District 12 (Mel Watt) is under the previous redistricting.

  • snopercod

    Wow! It sure looks like the People’s State of Asheville (AKA Haight-Ashbury East) is out of Dist. 11 and into Dist. 10. Good deal!

  • JoeG

    Oregon CD5 is closer to being in play now. Two huge dem bastions are out of the district (SW downtown Portland including PSU, and Corvallis including OSU).

  • roryfreedom

    A three-seat net gain in NC will help offset the potential Democrat gain of five seats in Illinois (plus the obvious loss a GOP seat in Louisiana). I agree that David Price’s district should rightly be left alone or made more strongly Democrat to avoid diluting Republican strength elsewhere.

  • palmyra

    Yes, the morning of November 7, 2012 is going to be so sweet . . . . . new President elected, new Congressman elected (Mike doesn’t work for me) . . . . . Congressman Ilario Pantano has a nice ring to it. Oh, and, let’s not forget to mention our new governor elected, Pat McCrory. Bye-bye Bev. Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!

  • Rusty_S

    Hopefully he will go ahead and pursue the promotion to Athletic Director at the University of Tennessee.

  • freemanja1991

    Can you give us a link to see said OR maps?

  • freemanja1991

    Resign inorder to take that seat? Or wait til 2012.

  • freemanja1991

    Was Kissle and McIntyre put into the same district? So which would be open if so?

  • gekster

    I hope this works.

    <a href="http://www.leg.state.or.us/redistricting//etc".OR district map

    if the above doesn’t work:
    http://www.leg.state.or.us/redistricting/

  • electionwatch

    Pantano dropped out of that race….

  • rightwingmom52

    And I’m torn because I don’t want him in either position.

  • redtillimdead

    3 Democratic seats is the right amount. If we went after GK, not only would we endanger the surrounding Republican districts (and end up with a map like the PA 2000 one) but we would also be messing with the VRA.

  • redtillimdead

    http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/678/redistricting-oregons-compromise-map

    There’s a good right-leaning analysis on the map. Basically, we gave them the 4th (DeFazio) but the 5th (Schrader) and 1st (Paper Tiger) become less Democratic, giving us two good pick-up opportunities.

  • redtillimdead

    Is offset by the gain in SC. Between NC, GA, and TN, Republicans can make up all of the losses in CA and IL. If we get all 4 in NC (We should get 3, CD7 is a toss-up) and Republicans are smart in TN and GA, we get 8 seats. In TN, it is very easy to get rid of Cooper and make 8 seats that are atleast 55% McCain, and in GA, it is easy to get rid of Barrow and Bishop, plus adding the new Republican seat, for 11-3 with all 11 seats being greater than 55% McCain. I’d be upset if Republicans in TN go for 7-2 and GA Republicans go 10-4. Democrats are also losing seats in MO and MI, but we aren’t gaining any.

  • redtillimdead

    He’s still running, although, as much as I love him, I’m not sure he is the strongest candidate for that district. He couldn’t do it in 2010 and this seat only goes 3 points more Republican. I think we may need someone stronger to beat McIntyre

  • redtillimdead

    McIntyre’s home of Lumberton is split between the 8th and the 7th, but his house is in the 7th. Kissell lives in and will run in the 8th.

  • nvrepub

    …but that will be offset by a gain in UT

  • jeffreywturner

    Everyone seems to just capitulate on the silly idea that the VRA requires protection of majority-minority districts.

    However, there is no language in it that absultely mandates a state to draw majority-minority districts. This has only been “interpreted” into the VRA. However, Sandra Day O’Conner is no longer on the SCOTUS, so this is an area that is ripe for challenge in my opinion. If there was a legitimate shot at picking up an additional seat by altering one of these districts, this is the year that the GOP needs to try it because I believe it is the first time since 1971 (the first redistricting completed under the VRA) that we have had five SCOTUS members who are fairly solidly anti-racial preferences.

  • jeffreywturner

    Perhaps you are no longer in the “minority” in your thinking on this since Sandra Day O’Conner is not longer on the SCOTUS. I think perhaps this is the year that Republicans should challenge the commonly held belief that the VRA absolutely mandates majority-minority districts, and that this idea is even Constitutional.

  • electionwatch

    I know I’m going off-topic here, but, I’m trying to post a diary entry here, and I can’t because there is no “Create New Diary Entry” button in the tab on the top of the main page. What do I have to do to get a diary? I joined two months ago, and the tab was there, but, now it’s not there. I’ve never posted a diary entry. Help please…

    Responding to the post above me, the VRA is unconstitutional. I believe the minorities in the US should definitely have a say, but, a law like this is unconstitutional because it mandates that there must be districts like this in almost every state. Is there anything in the Constitution about this? No.

  • nvrepub

    what elected scores of Repubs across the south, by packing those DEM voters into 90% Dem. districts. Without it, we wouldn’t control the state legislatures in many southern states.

  • kdoc

    Note what uber-leftist Cynthia Tucker says:
    http://blogs.ajc.com/cynthia-tucker/2011/06/01/voting-rights-act-i-was-wrong-about-racial-gerrymandering/

  • Rusty_S

    as far as I’ve heard. But, I would assume they would want to fill that position right away.

  • roryfreedom

    It would be inadvisable to eliminate both Bishop and Barrow as that would place too many Democrats in other districts. I don’t know if Bishop’s 2nd District is a VRA seat, but his position can be strengthened by adding parts of Macon, and this would help neighboring freshman Austin Scott. A better plan would be to focus on Barrow and expand his district into Macon (that would yield a district that would be about 56% black). That would no doubt create a primary challenge by an African-American that Barrow would quite possibly lose. Bishop’s district in turn, can then be diluted with new voters from counties to the north, which would certainly place his career in jeopardy. The bottom line for redistricters in Georgia and other states in the South is that white Democrats should be eliminated wherever possible, and replaced ideally by Republicans and if not, by black Democrats.

  • mboyle1988

    I’ve done the GA map. You can create 11 seats that voted for McCain by at least 55%, and you can do it with little gerrymandering. Bishop is not VRA protected. If you combine his seat with the 13th district, which is also not VRA protected, then you create one VRA district and an open GOP seat.

  • mboyle1988

    I don’t really care if it’s racist or wrong or whatever. I just care that it packs black people together and creates huge advantages for the GOP in other seats. VRA is unquestionably a good thing for the party.

  • mboyle1988

    They took out Fayetteville and added Jacksonville, I’m pretty sure. This district went at least 55-45 for McCain.

    Also, to people who suggested we shouldn’t have strengthened Price’s district, that’s just dumb. Of course we should have. Be happy with a 10-3 gerrymander please. It’s mighty hard to do in NC. This isn’t freaking Alabama. We have white liberals in NC. You just can’t create more than 10 seats.

  • freemanja1991

    was D+2 right? how much worse did it get? And if DeFazio retires sometime, it would probably be competative because most open seats are more competitive then the district normally is. and how much better is the 1st?

  • mboyle1988

    There’s no way McIntyre gets rid of half of Robeson County and Cumberland County, adds Onslow County and half of Carteret county, and wins reelection. It just won’t happen. Simple as that. I actually created a map that was very similar to this, and McIntyre would have lost to Patano 46-54.

    I’m 99% certain this map will produce a 10-3 GOP delegation.

  • freemanja1991

    make savannah one disctrict. Kingston would win. In Tennessee Cooper won by about 10% against an underfunded candidtate. We could leave the district be and if we fund the candidate we could win.

  • freemanja1991

    Hurrary take it and resign and then we pick up the seat in the special! to make up for NY-26

  • freemanja1991

    for that i heard one would have to “move” aka rent an apt in the district

  • freemanja1991

    Unalatteraly put in place a redistricting map? NV’s gov has a ton of leway usually do to the legislature meeting every other year. Cuz we could get to 2 R’s and a swing out of NV

  • roryfreedom

    I think you can do that, mboyle, is to create a series of long, narrow districts stretching north-south along the length of the state, and bleached by counties from the northern Atlanta suburbs up to and including the mountains. I’ve played around with the redistricting software as well. My ideas are based on what I believe the Legislature will do. Word is Jack Kingston is demanding certain pieces of territory in the southern part of the state. Secondly, Republicans in Georgia in the 2003-2004 “re-redistricting” avoided the extremely grotesque lines drawn by Democrats previously, and will likely do so again. And finally, don’t be too surprised if GA ends up being required by the Obama Justice Depertment to draw a 4th VRA district anyway, as the distribution of the black population would indicatate.

  • proudgop

    I am still sad about what is happening to a lot of congressional delegation in Illinois and even in California a supposed Independent Commission is putting into harm 4 to 5 of our seats

    Glad map secures Elmers and also on the map:
    Shuler goes from R+6 to R+12, Miller from D+5 to R+10, McIntyre from R+5 to R+9, Kissell from R+2 to R+9

    Curious to see whats going to happen here in NY: talk 1 loss for each party with NYC ( Weiner) old seat losing a vote and upstate losing a vote with them likely targeting a Republican. However Slaughter and Higgins in Buffalo region lost most votes in entire state and should be combined.

    Reublicans in SC need to get their act together so judges dont draw them likely helping the Dems

  • mboyle1988

    I managed to combine 13 and 2 with just one narrow strip that lasted just two counties. It doesn’t look gerrymandered at all. And four vra seats isn’t possible without making really ugly lines. I hope Georgia follows NC and doesn’t gve into kingston’s demands. He doesn’t need an r+18 seat. He can have all of Chatham county. Georgia needs 11 GOP seats.

  • redtillimdead

    It is very hard to calculate PVI in OR. Its probably just a point or two more Dem. If DeFazio retires, it would be competitive, but it doesn’t appear that he’s retiring anytime soon. The 1st probably also just moves 1-2 points right. Against Wu, that is all we need to win. The Democratic Primary will be very fractured, and Wu will be able to be renominated with 30%

  • redtillimdead

    With 11 55%+ McCain seats that isn’t very ugly. I did mine differently though. I broke up Bishop’s seat between the 3rd, 1st, new 2nd, 8th, and 12th, while keeping David Scott’s 13th compact and majority-black.

    Here it is: http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/682/clean-safe-113-in-georgia-with-an-r30

  • redtillimdead

    Is not a team player like McHenry. He has said he will not take all of Savannah because that would put him in a very competitive 57% McCain district. In TN, that was a very Republican year. To get rid of Cooper, we need some creative line drawing. I did a map that puts him in a 54.9% McCain district and all of the other Republican incumbents in 58%+ McCain district.

  • redtillimdead

    I’ve only seen one that takes the 13th into south GA and it looks nasty.

  • redtillimdead

    It helps us when Democrats are in power. However, without it, we could make a 6-0 delegation in LA, 9-0 in TN, 4-0 in MS, 7-0 in AL, etc.

  • onemovoter

    First make sure you are logged in to redstate when you are wanting to do a diary entry. The ‘Create New Diary Entry’ link is to the left of the Logout link. If you are logged in and don’t see any change in links, then either try checking profile settings or contact the admin in restate through the contact link. On a very rare occasion there might have been a mix up in settings on the admin side. Hope this helps.

  • carolina

    Good job NC!

  • carolina

    Good job NC!

  • roryfreedom

    And see what an 11-3 GOP map would look like. One would have to be careful in Gwinnett due to all the “green” voting districts!

  • proudgop

    I am almost positive Bishop seat is protected under VRA?

    They can secure Scott seat, the new district will be Republican and hopefully dismantle Barrow seat

  • oneconservative

    It is great to see what is going on in North Carolina, Oregon and some of the other places.

    In the People’s Republic of Illinois, the Libs, who have the state house, senate, and the governorship, are trying to take back at least three of the four seats they lost in 2010. Chances are pretty good that Illinois is lost for at least another generation.

    P.S. It would sure be nice to send the phony Blue Fraud Democrat Heath Shuler out of Congress.

  • freemanja1991

    theres no way

  • acat

    Illinois had a choice between several good conservative candidates … and after the primary, the winner – Brady – couldn’t manage to reach out to the Suburban Conservatives (and squishies) he needed to win.

    That, plus the usual Cook County corruption, and .. yeah. Illinois is screwed.

    Mew

  • redtillimdead

    Is the fact that Miller, in 2000 when he chaired the redistricting committee, drew Sen. Bob Rucho out of his district. Well, Rucho came back and guess who chairs the redistricting committee now? Rucho. I bet it feels great to be him

  • redtillimdead

    Its not currently majority-minority so it is not VRA protected. There is some question as to whether the Obama DoJ will require a new one, but GA Republicans are going to the courts for preclearence, skipping the DoJ and they are less strict. It is relatively easy to make a majority-black district in South Georgia, and it can be compact, depending on your definition of compact

  • mboyle1988

    Why would the Obama DOJ not uphold them?

  • roryfreedom

    such as the new Illinois map will survive court challenges, unless districts are not contiguous or not of generally equal population. We’re talking purely partisan D vs R here, with no racial considerations.

  • freemanja1991

    ….

  • jeffreywturner

    When it causes districts that are only just over 50% black however, that sucks for the GOP. If we are gonna let this idea stand, we need to push to make all such districts well over 60% black, preferably closer to 70%. However this is difficult in the South because unlike the North, the South’s black folks are not all packed into urban areas. But with a little effort, I am still confident that we could basically assure that in the next Congress, the House has ZERO white Democrats from the South.

  • jeffreywturner

    In the South we usually end up with districts that are usually only about 60% black because our black folks are not all packed into urban areas like the black folks in the rest of the Country.

    If we could get 90% black districts like some of the ones in Philadelphia, Chicago and NYC, then it would be a much bigger boon to the GOP than it is currently.

  • jeffreywturner

    Is that state even one of the ones subject to DOJ review of its districts?