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Barack Obama’s disappointing 2Q?

Possibly the Obama campaign wants me to have that reaction, which was based on the news that they’ve released the total number of donors to date (just under 500,000) rather than the total amount collected in the second quarter. The campaign did so enjoy playing the expectations game in 2008. But what the heck: if it’s a trap, let me charge forward and trigger it anyway.

Why? Because the combined number for Obama/the DNC this quarter was $60 million. Assuming that the President’s on the hook for half of that, and assuming that every single of those 500K donors gave again this quarter, that means that the average donation from each donor would have to be $60. That doesn’t jibe with a prolonged pledge drive that was pretty much begging for first $5, then $3, in the last days of the quarter. Also, Mitt Romney hit between $15 and $20 million this quarter: if Obama made $30 million, well.

Again, there’s every possibility that the Obama campaign is merely trying to generate buzz by underplaying its fundraising totals. There’s also every possibility that the Obama campaign is hoping that all of those bloggers (including, well, me) and pundits who got burned in ’08 will be more shy about calling them out on shenanigans in ’12. You may safely assume from this post that I decline to play along.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Honestly, money’s not going to be the same issue in ’12 that it was in ’08, anyway.  The slack will be, as they say, taken up.

On both sides.

COMMENTS

  • Tbone

    Which is pretty much the level of common sense required to give Obama any money.

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    If you voted for Obama in ’08 to prove you’re not a racist, vote for someone else in ’12 to prove you’re not an idiot.

  • bobojake

    I believe obama is coming up way short and axlegease has no idea how to grease the pig in 2012. My prediction is obama won’t get 40% of the votes in Nov 2012 but he will be in the high 30s. May God Bless the USA and keep exposing the corrupt trojan pony for what his adminstration has done to destroy the Liberty and Freedom of the Citizens of the USA.. Thank You Moe for the job your doing.

  • bobojake

    NT

  • Adjoran

    are untraceable foreign gift cards? Obama got away with that blatant appeal to the terrorists and dictators and money launderers last time, what’s to stop him again?

  • blooch

  • johnt

    It’s always nice to know who you’re being sold out to. Soros is a given. He must be getting frustrated, Great Britain was so much easier to hurt & they didn’t have garbage at the top.
    As Adjoran points out, untraceable. Just as in any other criminal operation.

  • msctex

    We should be placing bets on how long it is going to take for the Dems to realize they are looking at a sitting Mondale, and not a Bill Clinton people (somehow) wanted to succeed.

    Which offers “sitting duck” a new meaning.

  • acat

    That’s why you see articles like this one Obama/Cuomo in the NYPost suggesting that Obama needs to change it up, or this bit over at Hot Air where Captain Ed finds an interesting parallel between Krauthammer and Evan Thomas

    I’d bet actual dollars that each of the Senate Dems who are up in 2012, and several of them are in nominally “purple” States, have internal polling showing that The Won isn’t going to have any coattails… and may have negative coattails – i.e. either the Black or Hispanic bloc isn’t gonna show up in sufficient numbers if jobs don’t come back – and they’ve got to be furious that his fundraising is sucking up dollars they’re desperately going to need….

    I still maintain it’s a matter of time before Obama is pushed aside in favor of a more moderate-appearing Dem, who can run as the anti-Obama while still running as a Lib.

    Mew

  • msctex

    . . .not a new suit. And given it is Biden we are actually discussing, maybe socks would be a more appropriate metaphor.

    I agree with you completely about BHO not being the nominee; that was the thrust of my first post. And yes: anyone insane enough to not recognize the very opposite of momentum deserves what they get. Their internal polling may well be without precedent in its negativity towards this man, but we are dealing with Progressives, and Denial is a key part of their thought process. They will put this move off as long as possible, longer than a rational group would consider. But they know whatever they do, the Press will hail it as a watershed moment of political courage and savvy, so there is always a soft place beneath them to fall.

  • acat

    and it gets more interesting.

    What if they replace Biden with Cuomo, who’s got a rep as a competent governor of a large state, and then Obama announces that he’s no longer running?

    You get a veep who could run for two terms, is a solid campaigner in a very populous state, and who is able to (honestly – if it matters) say “Mistakes were made, but I wasn’t part of the administration”.

    If the GOP settle on an anti-Obama, we may have a repeat of 2008 – when we settled for an anti-Hillary.

    Oh, and the “Reply To This” button is your friend. Just sayin’

    Mew

  • msctex

    My starry-eyed nature fails me yet again. I didn’t catch how devious the implications actually are.

    That said, even with the Media’s ever-present safety cushion, Obama doing what he has done to the country and then cutting and running would be a very tough sell. Especially if we end up with somebody willing to call a spade a spade like Perry (any and all other implications re Perry aside), who could with one sound bite define this idea in this cycle’s “There he goes again” moment. Even someone like Chris Matthews would have a hard time with this — it is one thing to suspend disbelief, quite another to watch a savior run away from his job. They would have to provide a believable reason, and I’m not sure that is possible.

    The disaster this Presidency has turned out to be would seem a fatal millstone to whomever they offer up. They sold voters a near-diety who has accomplished precisely nothing — quite literally — while digging the holes we were already in far deeper. No one is better off after Obama. No one. If Cuomo chooses to act as a sacrificial lamb, so be it. But all the signs say whomever they run is going to lose, and probably badly. That’s not something anyone wants on their resume.

  • msctex

    Seems glitchy.

  • acat

    Cuomo woudn’t be sacrificial .. especially if Obama retires due to, for instance, “a stress-related malady”. i.e. if he doesn’t run away but instead is forced out for medical reasons.

    At that point, while the savior may not be dead (and I hope Obama lives a long and miserable life) he would not have “run away”….

    As for “accomplished nothing”, I’d say that the number of new buraucracies created as part of obamacare (100 new agencies, was it?) that can be stocked with loyal Dems and “skirt” Union folk are a pretty big win for the Dems.

    Their playbook is simple – get yards (grow the Fed) when possible, then defend every single bureaucrat when necessary. They don’t *need* to control Congress or the White House – they just need to hold the ground they’ve taken and .. it’s a matter of time before the insurance companies go under and – voila! – socialized medicine is a fait accompli.

    Mew

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    just as LBJs was, but like LBJs, it is the centerpiece of Democrats vision for the nation. Obama has accomplished a great deal, and unless we elect a Republican with real courage who will not only take on the DC establishment and unions, but take on the leadership of the Republican Party as well, you’d better pay attention to what happens in Greece, because it’s on the way here. And it will be a thousand times worse.

  • izoneguy

    You are correct – Greece has a population of about 12 million. If a small country can have this kind of effect on the world – imagine when tens of millions of public workers demand that you pay them with tax money you have you greedy private sector employees……

  • msctex

    You’re not giving the voters enough credit, although with our current situation I can understand the tendency. Cuomo would be sacrificial, as would anyone else other than perhaps HRC, whom I’m betting has more than sufficient awareness of the prevailing winds to sit this one out. There is no “stress-related malady” strong enough short of a demonstrable life-threatening condition which would justify Obama’s not running. This is where they are hoist on the petard of his imaginary brilliance: such a man should be able to overcome anything, and if he steps aside, people will know damn well why. Have a little faith in our countrymen. We can be fooled by a monumental concerted effort, but we are not deluded idiots, especially when food prices and gas prices are so high. And the fact we are here foreseeing the possibility of Obama not running this early only underscores how hard such a sell would prove.

    And not to get bogged down in semantics, but “accomplished” has an undeniably positive overtone. An accomplishment is a feat acknowledged by far more than not to be a good thing. I thus stand by my statement this Administration/President has accomplished nothing. Have they imposed ticking time bombs on us all? Sure. It’s what they do. But new agencies can be dismantled; the “impossibility” of this task is something they need us to believe. We can’t conflate the difficult and unpleasant with the impossible. Doors can be locked, people can be fired, and life will go on.

    Most importantly, possibly the biggest mistake a Conservative can make is to impose the most fundamental aspects of our thought processes on the enemy. We cannot accurately lend them even our most basic expectation: that what we do, will serve a functional purpose. NOTHING these people do ever actually works, or helps anyone in the long run. We are sometimes guilty of making the slight but telling mistake of thinking, “If I were them, what would I do,” as opposed to what actually happens when people lacking a recognition of Cause and Effect are left to their own devices. If we wanted to destroy the country, we would be much better at it, as with anything.

    (And no, apparently “Reply to This” is NOT my friend. It tends to ignore my wishes. I also have to hit “Log In” every time, only to be told I am already logged in and can go from there.)

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    country, the numbers are small. The problem is, in the EU there are a couple of more places watching closely what happens in Greece. Places like Spain. If Greece gets bailed out, look for riots in Spain to follow shortly. Spain is much bigger.

    And then there’s us. There’s nobody around to write that check. It won’t even be up for discussion. And you can bet there will be riots that make the 60s look like picnics.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    True enough. And that’s also the reason Cuomo – or any other Obama replacement – would not be a sacrificial lamb. It’s the old saw that Communism didn’t work in Russia because the administrators weren’t good at their jobs and we have better people. There’s a reason why the only place real Communists can be found is here, mostly on college campuses.

  • izoneguy

    that rioting in the streets will solve their problems then they will end up losing more than just a job. Obama is laying the groundwork for social upheaval and then again Obama will lose more than just the Office of the Presidency.

    Society and America will survive without public sector employees.
    America will not survive if everyone has to work for the government.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    figured that one out yet. And, it will likely work in Greece. There’s a reason some of Obama’s synchophants are pointing to Greece as the model to keep government employees on the dole.

  • msctex

    . . .that they have a bottomless capacity for rationalizing why their Ideals prove dysfunctional if not overtly malevolent. Their hearts, after all, are squarely in the right place, unlike the unfeeling hordes that comprise us Conservatives.

    I suppose it boils down to whether or not the sacrifice is aware it is on an altar, or if the Party would willingly throw Cuomo to the wolves. This would seem highly doubtful, as he is the closest thing they have to a young star on the horizon or what have you. Internal polling absolutely must show this to be an at best dubious cycle for the Democrats, and quite possibly watershed disaster, 500 year flood territory.

    Logically, if anyone would be willingly thrown to the wolves at this point in the scenario, Occam’s Razor would dictate it be the guy who happens to be next in line and who has proven himself an expendable joke: Biden. They could set Obama aside on a shelf for whatever ostensible reason to ripen in the UN or whatever, and acknowledge Reality by putting JB on the block with someone meaningless as a VP. But, acknowledging Reality is not what they are known for.

  • acat

    or hadn’t so effectively beclowned himself for the last couple decades, I suspect that we’d see just such a scenario.

    The Dems, though, need someone who can clearly argue that he or she was miles away from the scene … Biden does not fit the bill. Cuomo does.

    There are others who may be looking to move up. Remember, after all, that Al Gore accepted the veep nom in part because he knew he wouldn’t win his next Senate race. The same is true of Silky Pony Edwards, by the way.

    Mew

  • msctex

    . . .need be acknowledged. One where the Dems play to win, and one where they throw in the towel. But if internal polling can be said to serve a purpose, and given the bankable unlikelihood of anything changing between now and next summer or so, it is hard to imagine them playing to win when they would only have all the more to lose as a result. Hence, Biden as a genuine and undeniable lamb to slaughter.

    But assuming they do try to win, I’m not sure it is possible for a Democrat to be “miles away from [this] scene.” The world is too small, and they partied too hard and too loudly for too long. Safe to say Cuomo has supported Obama throughout these last years, at the very least in terms of Party loyalty from the moment it became apparent Obama had wrested the mantle away from HRC. And here again, we encounter the gravitational pull of the magnitude of the absurdity it took to get this man elected in the first place. Nobody ever questioned him. I imagine it will be easy for the Republican candidate to find plenty of footage of Obama and Cuomo essentially arm-in-arm, and that may well be sufficiently poisonous to Cuomo or anyone else.

    And, someone over at Lucianne just made a quite astute observation. For Joe to go, Obama would need admit, tacitly or otherwise, Joe was a mistake. Has this ever happened? Biden would of course resign for health reasons and the good of the nation etc., but peoples’ eyes are open, and it would again be a tough, tough sell.

  • acat

    This is why the Conservative responses in the form of Reagan and the Contract With America need to be re-thought.

    Conservatives cannot merely “stop them”. We must not merely “Roll them back”. We must not declare victory and go home. We must stay engaged. We must “Hold until relieved”.

    Mew

  • msctex

    . . .when your goals are ever on the horizon, but never within reach. Mirages are like that.

    And our “engagement” needs to be in the trenches, where they are currently at their strongest. They have our schools, and our Media. A concerted, dedicated overtly conscious effort will be required to retake both, like something we’ve possibly never seen before. It will require organization and effort on the part of hundreds of thousands. But once this has begun, we will find it surprisingly easy to prevail, as it is not a matter of winning the argument. That is a given. We need only start it, each and every time they drift away from Reality, and the rest will take care of itself.

  • acat

    Well said, msctex. We are in agreement on what is required.

    Happy Independence Day. May we not require another.

    Mew

  • msctex

    n/t