Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.
PPP goes on to blame the President for this one (both candidates have positive favorable ratings, although Bob Turner's is notably better). To give you an idea of how bad things are for Obama in NY-09, check this out: "Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43." It would seem that President Obama is highly unpopular with orthodox Jewish voters (Turner leads 56/39) and people who care about Israel (Turner leads there 71/22) right now. Go figure.
So... I am going to go out on a limb, here:
PS: Bob Turner for NY-09. DOOM or not, no time to get cocky.