Old And Busted: Donald Trump Wins On First Ballot. New Hotness: A Scorched Earth Convention
There is no reason why the GOP should allow Donald Trump to have the nomination no matter how many delegates he shows up with.Read More »
Some unsolicited, un-paid for, and probably unwelcome advice to the Democrats: if it is true – again, if, if, if, if, if, if – that Dale Kildee is in fact guilty of the sexual molestation charges made against him, it will be in the Democratic party’s best interests to force Kildee to resign now. Consider the following Representatives:
Do you see the theme, here? Of the last six Representatives who resigned because of a sex scandal, four saw their seats change party at the next opportunity and one will very possibly see that happen next year. Now let’s look at a list of Representatives from the last decade that didn’t resign*:
So, of those five: three saw their seats flipped to the opposite party, one saw the seat kept for his party, and the last got his seat taken away from him in a primary, thus preserving it for his party.
This is all admittedly a small sample size, but it’s still one heck of a trend: House members who get caught in sex scandals tend to see their seats flip at the next opportunity. But note this: of the three seats that flipped prior to the 2010 general election, PA-10 and NY-13 flipped yet again at the next election after that (so did FL-16, but its back-to-back sexual scandals skews the results). So the seats are not necessarily permanently lost… but they are likely to be lost, and that’s just the way that it is, honestly.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
PS: No, I don’t really know why this doesn’t seem to apply to Senators or Governors.
*This list is admittedly a bit more likely to be incomplete: while it’s easy enough to trace who resigned, the list of Congressmen who were credibly accused of sexual shenanigans but stayed in office anyway is a little harder to compile.