Background: OR-01 is a D+8 district which has not gone Republican in decades. This should normally make it reasonably safe for the Democrats… except that the seat is vacant because David Wu… well. Something happened in David Wu’s head. Possibly something neurological; definitely something that caused what was at best a sex scandal and at worst… something else. So – and despite the best efforts of his caucus – Wu resigned; which may not actually help his party all that much. The recent record suggests that voters like to punish parties when one of their House members gets caught showing theirs off; and this situation would certainly qualify.

And there’s some indication that the DCCC is getting worried about Republican candidate Rob Cornilles. Rob got 40% of the vote against Wu in 2010; Democratic rhetoric to the contrary, he has a real shot at the seat. It is suspected that the DCCC agrees, given that it has bought air time in OR-01 (at this point, over a million dollars*). For that matter, there are unconfirmed reports suggesting that Rob’s Democratic opponent Suzanne Bonamici is… well, let me quote the relevant bits:

Yesterday, a Game Face [Rob Cornilles' company] employee was called by someone who didn’t identify himself, but was asking specific questions about the business. A little puzzled by the call, the employee looked at the Caller ID information, which showed 503-221-4921. That’s the number for M+R Strategic Services in Portland. M+R Strategic Services does not show up in any disclosure documents for firms involved in the First Congressional District race.

But, interestingly, M+R Strategic Services shares an office suite at 1220 SW Morrison Street, Suite 910 in Portland with a firm called Winning Mark. Winning Mark is listed as the General Consultant on the Federal Election Commission expenditure report by Bonamici for Congress.

It’s always interesting when campaigns forget about the march of technology, isn’t it? It just keeps getting easier and easier to look up this stuff.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*I respect the National Journal’s point that this should not be over-analyzed, but that is a lot of money for a supposedly safe seat and the DCCC doesn’t really have much of a margin for error at this point.