The 10th was a bit weakened (relatively to the original version, basically the Dayton AA neighborhoods were put back into it), but Mike Turner will still win it easily. That was basically the only republican concession.

Bottom line, the R’s and D’s will likely each lose a seat. “Fair,” by any fair-minded person’s standards, but, you know how that goes.

The end result, from the Plain Dealer:

“Republicans conceded some face-saving tweaks to Democrats, including a better chance for two African-American representatives to go to Washington and a less fractured Dayton area. The tweaks also leave U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s Toledo base more intact — and thus more challenging to win for Cleveland’s Rep. Dennis Kucinich, who loses only a part of his base in the reshuffling (and no one should write off Kucinich, who has more political lives than a cat).

Overall, the tweaks drew enough “yes” votes from General Assembly Democrats to declare the redistricting plan an emergency measure, letting it take immediate effect. Moreover, emergency measures are not subject to referendum, which seems to be Ohio Democrats’ preferred political weapon at the moment.”

The Dems are screaming about it, thinking they were sold out by their team. Boehner’s fingerprints are all over this in the form of a kick-the-can-down-the-road “task force” required to propose a congressional redistricting reform plan by June 30. When the history books are written, these commissions and task forces will be his legacy.

Probably the most important part of this deal is that it unifies the primary. If this had not been resolved, Ohio would have had to move the March primary to June for congressional and presidential elections. That would have not only been costly and confusing, it would have taken Ohio out of picture for much of the primary process.

It should be a fun primary between Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich. The winner gets to play Joe-the-Plumber.

One side note of this grueling mess: Remember back in the day when Rep. Jim Jordan had the nerve to defy Boehner on the debt ceiling deal and Boehner threatened to eliminate his district? He quickly backtracked and Jordan wasn’t eliminated, but take a look at Jordan’s 4th District. Now compare it to his current district.

He’s been given 3 additional counties (a total of 14), plus hundreds of miles of barely contiguous areas covering at least 4 TV markets. Now check out Boehner’s neighboring District 8, which covers a compact area over 5 1/2 counties and two TV markets. Not a stretch to think Jordan will be out of his hair because he’ll be forced to spend a LOT of time on the road introducing himself to his new constituents. They have their ways of dealing with dissenters, don’t they?

A lot redistricting is being finalized and it appears our biggest headaches are in the so called “Independent Commission States”

California and Arizona look bad for us. Illinois map was finalized and it can cost us as many as 6 seats ( Dold, Walsh, Biggert, Schilling, Kingzinger/Manzullo GOP primary-safe sear, Schilling, Johnson)

Texas, Florida, New York have yet to be finalized.

The GOP has been able to make many tossup/lean GOP states in favored states

I completely agree that letting independent commissions or judges draw the lines would be a huge mistake.

I more and more find myself thinking we need some type of propotional voting for the House. Such systems definitely have their problems too, but there is a real problem when in so many states either party may get a majority of the votes and only end up with 20-30% of the states delegation.

You are definitely right that the VRA creates a natural republican tilt.

However, the ugly contortions are already in all the maps, especially in the new NC map. Making even uglier contortions would not be a big step.

Plus it may not be that hard for the other side to do. For example, both central Dallas and central Raeligh are sliced into districts that extend outward including large suburban and rural areas. This ensures that the voting power those urban dems are not enough to win any of the districts they are in. You could easily tweak these by removing some of the “extension” portions and making the slicing not so great and that would then swing power to the urban voters. So in Dallas you might go from a 4R;1D to a 3D:2R

What about Pallone? And does anyone know how bad the 4 dem leaning Ohio seats are?