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Ten things to remember about the Iowa caucus.

These are as generic as I can make them.

  1. Politicians lie.  Let me repeat that.  Politicians lie.  Don’t be so upset about it: so do you.
  2. If the Iowa caucus was unimportant, people wouldn’t be obsessing over it.
  3. If the Iowa caucus was all-important, we’d have it in August and combine it with the nominating convention.
  4. When Candidate X’s supporter tells you that Candidate Y has a problem, s/he is not necessarily lying.  But, yeah, s/he is very likely being a jackass about it.
  5. Money, buzz, crowds, speeches, debates, polls, commercials, zingers, phone banks, ads, leaflets, and hand-knitted tea cozies with the candidate’s campaign logo on them are great… but not as great as winning the precinct votes.  Winning precincts is also the only metric that goes up on the scoreboard.
  6. When it comes to elections, the saying is inverted: defeat has a thousand fathers, victory is an orphan.
  7. Pollsters have reputations to protect, but they also know darn well that the acceptable margin of error in primary polling is larger than normal.  Trying to figure out whether it’s the former or the latter point that applies in any given case is one of the things that makes life interesting.
  8. Reagan’s fabled 11th Commandment does not include the clause “…so you must forgive an over-zealous supporter for being an jackass.” I mention this because many people seem to have that clause penciled in.
  9. The Republican party has a large contingent (but not as large as it might think) of people who will answer the question “What are you going to do, sit this one out?” with a flat “Yes” if you push them too hard.  If this happens, well, you were warned.
  10. I believe it was Abraham Lincoln who noted that the idea is not to pray that God be on your side; but rather that you pray for help for you to stay on His.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

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COMMENTS

  • tritonspolartiger

    …for #3. :-)

  • mccoypauley

    You’re one of the best bloggers on this site.

  • Adjoran

    who don’t want to play at all if things don’t go their way.

    But voting with your feet is the right of every voter – as long as they understand the consequences.

    Not voting, or voting for a third party candidate, is in effect voting for Obama’s reelection in any state which might be remotely close. The election is a choice between two candidates: Obama and whoever the GOP nominates. The incumbent has the home field advantage of using taxpayer funds to campaign and federal largesse to extort donations. If you aren’t voting for his only real opponent, you ARE voting FOR him.

    Which is okay and your right as an American. But don’t pretend you’ve had nothing to do with Obama’s reelection later. Don’t come back telling us how YOUR candidate would have done better – he/she wouldn’t if the rest of us were faithless defectors like you.

    For all the nonsense about “the ‘establishment’ is fixing the result” crap, our process is far more democratic than the Democrats. We don’t hold out 20% of the seats for officeholders and party bosses. Ours are mostly decided by primaries and caucuses, democratic votes. “The establishment” – to the extent it exists as a meaningful force at all – doesn’t get to “ram” anything. If your guy doesn’t get any votes, it’s not because some RINO in DC decided he wouldn’t, it’s because voters didn’t vote for him.

    Get over it, and get over yourselves.

  • tomatin

    Being an adult is having the integrity to think for one self and not subject yourself to hypocrisy just to follow a group. In this case that group is the Republican Party whose most likely nominee will be a candidate who does not believe in or practice the very conservative principles the group professes.

  • nylac100

    “It’s a basic truth of the human condition that everybody lies. The only variable is about what.” – House

    House

  • nancysabet

    he?ll be the nominee.

  • nylac100

    We had a tea party because of the government overreaching nature of government healthcare.

    The very thing Romney supported in Massachusetts, and he strongly defended it up until very recently.

    I’m tired, I’ve voted straight ticket republican in every election since I turned 18 (2000). All it’s got me, one lousy tax cut in 2003. Nothing conservative ever happens regardless of who is in power.

    Every republican has liberal stances on something, and Romney changes his beliefs so often he has probably agreed with Obama on every major issues.

    With “Republicans” like this, what difference does it make if Obama wins? What difference has it made that the Republicans controlled the government for 6 years, one lousy tax cut.

  • nancysabet

    http://www.c-span.org/Events/Rick-Perry-Ends-Campaign-Day-in-Perry-Iowa/10737426778-1/

  • http://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress.com nathanalbright

    ….but perhaps it could also be said that Reagan’s 11th Commandment doesn’t preclude vetting the candidates in the primary.

  • princessconsuela

    I will choose to stay home which Adjoran pointed out to be my right. My reasons are simple. He is Obama Lite, Obama 2.0, etc. So either way, a heads up match puts the same liar in the white house. Just because Mitley has an (R) behind his name this week does not make him an actual Republican. He is no more a Republican than I am the queen of sheeba. Just sayin

  • tomatin

    I would give GWB credit on national security issues. So much so that Obama has followed Bush’s foreign policies.

    But your point;

    “Romney changes his beliefs so often he has probably agreed with Obama on every major issues.”

    Says it all. This is one of the biggest reasons Romney will lose. I can see the debates now. Romney tries to make about any point and all Obama has to say is ‘Mitt you agreed with me back in 200X’. The worse part is Obama would be telling the truth for once.

  • tomatin

    But would encourage you to vote down ticket for Republicans.

    Obama does need to be checked and with a GOP congress he won’t be able to spend that much anyway.

  • nylac100

    “Romney tries to make about any point and all Obama has to say is ?Mitt you agreed with me back in 200X?. The worse part is Obama would be telling the truth for once.”

    Goodness, wish I said that :) .

  • septembergurl

    that, as the novelist and screenwriter William Goldman (Butch Cassidy etc) put it in his book about writing for movies:

    “Nobody knows anything.”

  • princessconsuela

    But i cannot see me voting for Mitley. Not just because of my distaste of the man and the lack of need for any used car he wants to sell me but for one simple reason.
    One vote for Mitley is basically 8 more years of Obama. A no vote in protest (yes I see the silliness of it) leaves only 4 more Obama years. Cant afford either which is why I am so hoping Perry’s momentum keeps going up. I have always and will continue to vote for him as he does do the things he talks about and doesnt just talk about doing them. I am all for taking down the golfer n chief but Mitley is not the way..

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    These are as generic as I can make them.

    Politicians lie. Let me repeat that. Politicians lie. Don?t be so upset about it: so do you.

    –Why hasn’t Perry?

    If the Iowa caucus was unimportant, people wouldn?t be obsessing over it.

    –Iowa will yield a consolidation of the Conservative field in one [no more Michele] and perhaps two [The Newt's plummeting] ways.

    If the Iowa caucus was all-important, we?d have it in August and combine it with the nominating convention.

    –It initiates a balloting-process that will be a “marathon” [not sprint], per Perry.

    When Candidate X?s supporter tells you that Candidate Y has a problem, s/he is not necessarily lying. But, yeah, s/he is very likely being a jackass about it.

    –Not necessarily; the truth-telling by Perry [particularly regarding Santorum] has been statesman-like, right-on, and highly-effective.

    Money, buzz, crowds, speeches, debates, polls, commercials, zingers, phone banks, ads, leaflets, and hand-knitted tea cozies with the candidate?s campaign logo on them are great? but not as great as winning the precinct votes. Winning precincts is also the only metric that goes up on the scoreboard.

    –The prodrome yields an enhanced chance of achieving the latter; this is the
    positive effect of organization.

    When it comes to elections, the saying is inverted: defeat has a thousand fathers, victory is an orphan.

    –[...sorta like BHO's rationalizations.]

    Pollsters have reputations to protect, but they also know darn well that the acceptable margin of error in primary polling is larger than normal. Trying to figure out whether it?s the former or the latter point that applies in any given case is one of the things that makes life interesting.

    –Pundits are constantly citing the 50%-undecided [or, rather, "not firmly committed"] figure as a potential “out.”

    Reagan?s fabled 11th Commandment does not include the clause ??so you must forgive an over-zealous supporter for being an jackass.? I mention this because many people seem to have that clause penciled in.

    –No one should be lionized/forgiven for what he/she advocates on behalf of anyone else; the candidates do “adopt by reference” @ their peril.

    The Republican party has a large contingent (but not as large as it might think) of people who will answer the question ?What are you going to do, sit this one out?? with a flat ?Yes? if you push them too hard. If this happens, well, you were warned.

    –Ultimately, both parties will subsume their bases…but a Mitt-nomination could provide potent ammo for a 3-rd party formation [of TEA Party Movement activists and Evangelicals].

    I believe it was Abraham Lincoln who noted that the idea is not to pray that God be on your side; but rather that you pray for help for you to stay on His.

    –This may be why EVERY preparation-day of the Perry Campaign is preceded by [optional] Prayer!

  • texastaxpayer

    Anything you can share???

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    Start Here:

    http://dyn.politico.com/members/forums/thread.cfm?catid=1&subcatid=70&threadid=6297336&start=1&currentPage=1

  • renl57

    If Romney does win enough delegates, then that means that a lot of Republicans had to have voted for him. It’s their party too.

    In Iowa, Romney has a decent shot at coming in first, or at least second, in the caucuses today. That means that plenty of Republicans voted for him–very likely more Republicans than voted for Perry. And it’s their party too.

    Some folks on RS have this attitude that “The GOP is *our* party, and we don’t want to share it with anybody else.” There are some in the Dem party that have the same attitude, which has resulted in chasing so many voters out that now Independent voters outnumber both Dems and Repubs.

    If you truly want to welcome young Americans and anyone else into the party, then you’re going to have to accept that they’re going to want to back the candidates of THEIR choice and support the policies of THEIR choice.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    Let’s look forward to assessing the field after Michele and Huntsman are “history” within a fortnight…and The Newt’s nadir becomes neon-lit.

  • texastaxpayer

    Though I can’t say I find that very comforting. The Romney rebuke is nothing I haven’t typed myself a few dozen times but the review of “the rest of the field” is certainly disheartening. I can’t believe that a field that includes the former speaker of the house Newt Gingrich and the most successful governor in contemporary America Rick Perry is considered lack luster and dull. I am a Perry supporter and have had the privilege of having him as my governor for more than a decade and I can tell you the man has the chops to get this done. While I don’t presently back Newt he does have a whole revolution named after him. Somehow the constant pinning for the single term rhino governor of New Jersey is beyond old and frankly meritless. I see nothing outstanding about him whatsoever. Especially when compared to Perry and to a lesser extent Newt. I also love the polls showing ol switch hit Mitt beating Obama by 6 points. Just in time for the vote. Boy the press is scrupulous. I suppose everyone has forgotten the election day polls that told us voting for Mccain would save us from the dual headed terror of Hillary and Obama. It is truly an indictment of our culture to see how many people let the media do their thinking for them and manipulate them like puppets on strings.
    I expect a full day of faux news pushing the Mittens as our savior and Santorum surging meme….. Pathetic…..

  • texastaxpayer

    can do some damage to Willard Romney in his fortress New Hampshire. Would love nothing better than Willard to take a serious double hit in Iowa and New Hampshire, take that smug arrogant entitled smile off his face.

  • circlegranch

    let them know that the Hispanic vote in West Liberty, IA, has had no visits from candidates. A coalition of residents and the school superintendent were on CNN a bit ago and they are sure wishing a candidate or rep’s would acknowledge their existence. They have a number of students in college that want to come home to their IA community to helpl make things better. They don’t think the GOP hears their voices.

    Pew Hispanic poll last week:

    Obama 63%
    Romney 20-something%

    Rick Perry needs to go talk to them.

  • veritaseequitas

    best GOP candidate for POTUS. Personally I hope Perry comes up swingin’ and takes everybody by surprise to secure the nomination.
    That being said; for you to say you will not vote for the GOP nominee even if it does turn out to be MR, is simply childish and shortsighted. Little Barry Obama and his ilk are endangering this country, 4 more years of them could well be our downfall.
    Voting is not only a right, it is a duty. If you choose to stay home, you have no room to comment on anything if BHO gets re-elected. You will meerely have to accept the consequences.
    Hold your nose if you have to when you vote, I know I had to do that in 2008 when McCain was the GOP nominee. But a lot more can be done to right this ship we call America if we can get the communist out of office rather than allow him to be re-elected by our sticking with our snotty and fairly useless (in this instance) principles.

  • macphisto96

    I doubt for most anything he can actually say that. He can talk about how he modeled Obamacare after Romneycare, but Romney can point out that he has never advocated a “one size fits all” solution from the Federal Gov’t. On healthcare, Romney has consistently stated that states need to experiment and figure out what works for them, that the only thing he’d do on a Federal level is allow people to shop for health insurance across state lines. That’s hardly a gotcha seeing as Romney can advocate for states’ rights while Obama backs big central government.

    There is so much overstatement about Romney here and a lot of hypocrisy since so many, including Erickson, called Romney the best conservative option back in 2008.

    I think a lot of these so-called conservatives actually want Obama to win again because it drives traffic to their sites and radio shows. Obama means RedState makes more money, Rush makes more money, Beck makes more money, and Levin makes more money. Why would they want a viable candidate to win when it’ll mean less cash for them?

  • veritaseequitas

    ..

  • nylac100

    Rush did just fine when Bush was president, he really grew during Gingrich’s time in congress (back when he was a conservative).

    Even if your lousy premise that conservative talkers need opposition to thrive is true, there will be plenty for conservatives to oppose if Romney is the president.

    But if we had a Tea Party to protest healthcare, to protest bailouts, to protest Fannie and Freddie’s manipulation, why on earth is Romney the front runner.

    Why on Earth is Gingrich being touted as a conservative? He stood in the last debate defending Fannie and Freddie (not to mention Gingrich threw Paul Ryan under the bus).

    Why is Ron Paul polling so well. It’s because he’s the only fiscal conservative in the race. And if he wasn’t so wrong on foreign policy is so many ways, he should win the nom hands down.

    I get voting for Perry over Obama, but even Perry isn’t exactly a champion of tax cuts. Gingrich or Romney, over Obama, what’s the difference? If either of those two are the nominee, the liberals can’t lose, they have both candidates.

  • princessconsuela

    I am a card carrying Republican, more libertarian leaning ( but not a Paul fan) American. Mitt Romney is not, not either one. He is a liberal in Republican clothing. As I stated in my earlier post, a vote for Mitley is the same as reelecting Barry. I would rather only endure 4 more years than add an extra 4 by putting the silver spooned, robotic, out of touch with the normal people, lying, flip flopping, couldnt get reelected in his own state as the incumbent Romney. A no vote is my protest to the establishment who never gets it right. The only difference between Romney and Obama is skin color, birth place, how much $ each had at birth and residence choices. I see no reason to grin and bear it, I did that as well last time and look what we got anyway. The MSM says the election is based on independant voter drones, and if they put him up there which I dont see happening, than there is no change at all except two families moving. I hope people get informed and dont believe all they hear but as for myself I am informed, I am from Texas and I cannot in good faith (that of a christian) vote for Romney. Not trying to be childish, trying to be ME!

  • princessconsuela

    My right and duty is to vote for the person that I believe can beat..ie. is better than Obama. If those people vote to get Romney on the ticket, they can vote in the election. I do not have to vote for the candidate if I do not morally agree. I did it before and the “change” that I received is phenominal, but not quite the direction that the campaigner in chief promised. I look at records, no more talkers. I want someone who has done things. Not someone who so easily throws out a $10k bet because he is out of touch with the normal people he claims to want to defend. He is obama 2.0 and there will be no difference in him getting or not getting my vote. They are one in the same. He is not qualified. To me, just because some runs for president for 6 years and is a smooth talker does not a president make. I do want and try to get the young voters and independants interested but I cannot make them research if they are unwilling and I also cannot make them not just follow suit with the MSM if they so choose. But I can however state that as voting is a right and I can personally choose how to execute mine. Maybe that gets people thinking, maybe not.

  • veritaseequitas

    counts huh?

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    just note his Texas record

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …via e-mail, directly to the head of the Perry Strike-Force!

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …and, it seems, this would be the site from which a team could be dispatched.

    http://www.mapquest.com/#f004e0d9ae9ce46ddfc3280d

    I believe they will be covering virtually all caucus sites [~800].

  • colonelflagg

    To that, I would only add that number nine might not be worded quite right.

    Given the current state of the GOP field, the phrase “but not as large as it might think” might more accurately be phrased “and the party hopes it’s not too large”.

    In my circle of friends, Romney, Paul and Gingrich all generate automatic write-in votes if they’re the GOP nominee. And that ain’t good.

  • circlegranch

    .