Thoughts on the SC primary.

By: Moe Lane (Diary) | January 22nd, 2012 at 11:00 AM |

RESIZE: AAA

As mentioned earlier, I was kind of taking last night off, so this will be a little scatter-shot. Anyway:

Heh. Called it. Not that getting the order was all that hard, or even unsurprising; also note that I didn’t predict the percentages. By the way: the end results (Gingrich 40%, Romney 28%, Santorum 17%, Paul 13%) were pretty close to what PPP predicted (Gingrich 37%, Romney 28%, Santorum 16%, Paul 14%).
Sean Trende over at RCP has done a pretty good job explaining just how bad this night was for Mitt Romney.
I predict that we’ve heard the last of any suggestion, by the way, that Romney will skipping most or all of the remaining debates.
Most importantly: none of this suggests that Newt Gingrich is now the inevitable nominee. Just that Romney isn’t actually inevitable. But it’s going to be one of those two.
Florida is going to be epic next week. Nine days of (metaphorical) knife fights in alleys, because there’s some people out there who are scared for the first time in this campaign cycle. Hope everyone else is prepared for that, because it’s going to happen anyway.
Looking further at the schedule… Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan’s caucuses/primaries look like the results will be binding; Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota’s technically will not. Don’t expect that to be reported in the media.
If Romney doesn’t start winning primaries, the Super Tuesday narrative will have a disproportionate amount of space dedicated to the minor detail that the frontrunner is not on the ballot in Virginia. Fallout from that: if Romney wins the nomination then Bob McDonnell will not be his Vice Presidential pick.
Last but not least: if the Gingrich campaign is wondering what to send RedState in the way of a gift basket, I personally like those chocolate praline stick things. Although, honestly, I didn’t do the heavy lifting on this one.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Tags: Mitt Romney, newt gingrich, primary, South Carolina

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES | LOGIN TO COMMENT | REGISTER TODAY

APA Guy

I saw Erick’s front-page about how the GOP establishment is trying to funnel money into Santorum with the hope that it will hurt Newt’s chances. Evidently, they didn’t notice that Romney outspent Newt 3 to 1 on ads in SC…only to get whomped in the primary.

I think the worm has turned. The debates will only solidify what we already know…that Newt Gingrich is the toughest, most conservative candidate left and Romney will wilt like a pansy…just like last time.
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister
carolina

I think that is big!
I think Newt will take a ‘gun’ to this ‘knife fight’, and I hope he wins it!
carolina

I think that is big!
I think Newt will take a ‘gun’ to this ‘knife fight’, and I hope he wins it!
fightnright

to see the results of the head-to-head match-ups between Gingrich/Obama, just to get an initial idea if the stellar performance of Newt at a Republican-only event trickles down and thus has a chance of swaying the general electorate.

If several redstaters are correct, we may have only one debate that pits Newt against the O in the fashion that gives Newt his best advantage. The other forums may be slanted townhalls , and all will be toploaded with far left moderators and shills, calculated to have the best chance of disarming the GOP’s best weapon. Since Newt has polled with high negatives, I will not be too secure unless another method of influencing the general public proves successful along with the debates that many conservatives are relying on.

The base, however, will be salivating to get out and push, pull or otherwise propel their friends and neighbors to the polls by any means possible. I’m no great fan of Karl Rove, but he claims that door to door, person to person outreach was the key ingredient to getting Bush – whose negatives were soaring amongst the electorate – to win his second term.
jakeofalltrades
txindependent

Go Newt!

With a wishful comment:
Gingrich/Perry!!!
bs61

that was a good plan!
APA Guy

What a formidable ticket that would be…nearly unbeatable so long as we stay on message.
jeepingeoff

https://transaxt.com/Donate/UUTAWU/Newt2012/
http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

…when someone will spill-beans regarding the justification for the gift-basket.
http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

and I am wondering, Is Red State taking credit for the Newt Gingrich win, or does this just sound like that.

Not that I think it has not had that large of an impact, but if it has, it is something to know. It confuses me, because their sure was not a large rush towards Perry or anything when he got in the race, oh wait there was a rush towards Perry when he got into the race. Now how about Perry dropping out and endorsing Newt, did that have a huge impact on the race.

I love how the establishment is so worried about Perry, that they almost set Newt up to giant his momentum, they knew he would be able to swat their petty attacks away, but they did not know that Perry would drop out to help Newt, and that in the finale week there would be a mass exodus towards Newt. Ha. Ha, is all I can really say to them.
http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

so i am not sure if that will be the thinking going into the fall election. I am hoping that Newt is able to withstand the sure to come garbage next week.
TexasTami

After the South Carolina primary, pro-family fighters in Washington, D.C. are scrambling for a Rick Santorum look-alike, and Newt Gingrich doesn’t fit the bill. A Newt nomination and presidency would not focus on family values, these fighters say, and that’s a hard pill for those on the pro-family front lines to swallow.

But not so fast. Who better to tout family values than Newt Gingrich, the poster child for bad family decisions? He’s spoken of a deeper faith experience and getting right with God and his church. That’s good; people can rah-rah around a humble candidate speaking about redemption. But let’s go one further: Newt needs to talk about the pain of divorce and the effects it has on family members. His daughters can attest to that. He can attest to that. I’m sure his ex-es can attest to that (have we not all seen Marianne’s pain?). And it doesn’t have to be a long tirade with sickening, intrusive, and frankly, uninteresting, details. A few sentences addressing the pain of NOT having family values would assuage most evangelicals and libertarians, and he would be the pro-family hero in owning up to those mistakes:

“I made some mistakes. I made wrong choices. I hurt my family. Divorce hurts families. I can’t go back and change those mistakes. But I can spread the word about this: the power of redemption heals broken lives.”

Now, that would be an effective statement on all fronts, and it would keep the power of family values, in a Newt Gingrich presidency, intact.

This was posted on my blog this morning: www.writeatthelight.blogspot.com
yoni2511

Please enjoy some humble pie courtesy of fact based polls..
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_gingrich_vs_obama-1453.html

Since April of Last Year, Gingrich has led obama in two polls out of 50. Since Christmas, President O is up by an average of ten points. Theres a reason all the “legitimate” presidential contenders decided against running this time. They know that even with a limping, slightly improving economy, president O is unbeatable. Anyone who calls them self a conservative or a republican needs to wake up and smell the coffee. I know you disdain President O and everything he has done to the country but we couldn’t have picked two weaker candidates. Romney and Gingrich will be blown away.. Easily.

FYI, presidential debates have a history of doing little to sway the opinions of voters, After five months of campaigning, people have a pretty clear sense of what the candidates stand for. The notion that OMG Gingrich would crush Obama and sway voters holds no basis in reality. Newt’s Negative rating was there before Romney’s ads and will only get worse as he is given a bigger platform ,

The country is laughing at our party..
fightnright

n/t
jatx

They want it so they can forward it to Texas.
paladin1

the readers are laughing at you and the voters are damning Obama for the disaster he has been. We have seen what all the polls are worth during this election because it is unlike any other. Don’t pedal that garbage here.
rightwingnut2

NO, I’m not a Paul supporter. I think he’s a fruit cake.

Virginia’s delegates are supposed to be distributed proportionately, UNLESS one candidate gets 50% of the vote. In that case, One candidate gets ALL of the at large delegates. Since only two candidates are on the ballot, this scenario is a certainty.The others will be distributed by congressional district.

Do the right thing, and deny Romney in Virginia. Vote for Paul.
Lucas Black

I sent my $50 late last night when I first heard about this.
yoni2511

?I will work every day to make Washington, DC as inconsequential in your life as I can.? – Parry

By Losing and going back to Texas.. How’d Bush redux work out for ya?
The fact that our two remaining choices for president are Romney and Gingrich says enough about where our party is and the fact that Boehner and McConnell are the leaders in congress is enough to make any sane, reasonable man cringe. The two most liberal republicans running against the most “liberal” president.. What a riot..
rightwingnut2

…First, if a candidate wins 50 percent of the vote, they receive all the at-large delegates. If no candidate achieves 50 percent, but a candidate has received greater than 15 percent of the vote, delegates are assigned proportionally.

Additionally, each congressional district has three delegates to the convention. The candidate that wins that district, even if a plurality, will receive all three delegates….

http://bearingdrift.com/2011/12/19/republicans-to-begin-validating-petitions-dec-23/
Lucas Black

Gallup’s trial heat shows Obama 50 – Newt 48. Same numbers as vs Romney.
califgal

Gingrich/Obama -

fightnright, don’t be to eager to see them. It’s a maxim of politics that the American people will only elect someone they personally like. They don’t have to love him or even want to have a beer with him, but they can’t look at him and think, things like “smarmy” or “arrogant” or “sneaky” or “scandalous” or “ego-driven.” (Obama could pull it off-he’s a good actor).

I don’t know a single person outside the right wing of the GOP that likes Newt, that has ever liked Newt as a person.

For every voter you can get from door-to-door organizing, will be offset by those who are motivated to go to the polls to stop him from being President. People look at Newt and don’t see someone “classy” (yes, they want “classy” with each person defining that word differently), and don’t see someone who has self-control.

In short, if you are not of a certain wing of the GOP, you see Newt as a blusterer. Not good.

I have no hope that Newt can ever be President. In fact, it won’t be close. Further, you underestimate Obama’s rhetorical skills during a debate.

Newt will come off as cocky and arrogant, Obama as meaured and thoughtful.

Best advice every give to anyone from anyone: get out of your own shoes and try putting on the shoes of someone whose votes you need in huge numbers. Then, look at the tv when Newt speaks, when Newt walks, when Newt attacks, and ask yourself what those people see.

That, and never forget that people still blame GW Bush for most of today’s economic mess.
WillWong

A diamond in the rough story……the return of the prodigal son story….maybe even the transformational story of Saul to Paul…..
califgal

People, people, did you not see how even the GOP voters reacted to Perry? With supreme disappointment as the carrier of a message.

Americans want no part of another Texan near the White House next year, especially a guy who came off as not too bright.

You are wearing blinders. Put yourself in the shoes of someone who is a Democrat, who voted for Obama, who dislikes George Bush and distrusts the GOP, who wants a better economy, who is not a Tea Partier, who is not bound to Obama but doesn’t see the GOP as putting up a guy who is emotionally “all there”, who doesn’t want an inarticulate GWBush II anywhere near the Oval Office.
califgal

is where most Americans live when it comes to their politics?

You don’t travel much, do you? You hand around with others like yourself, have a narrow circle of people with whom you socialize and work, huh?

You really don’t understand your fellow Americans, do you?
califgal

He’s as happy as a clam.
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

Why not be happy with a longer and bloodier GOP primary?

He may be missing: If Romney wins, he’ll be a better candidate. If Newt wins, he may not be as ‘unelectable’ as conventional wisdom thinks he is. (Although his fav/neg ratings are pretty bad now.)
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

The worst jobs record in a generation?
Job-killing policies that make no sense?
Unpopular Obamacare?

Sure, Obama has the liberal MSM watching his back.

Romney wont be that weak, he already polls even in head to head polls. And Obama beats gingrich but still cant poll above 50%. That spells trouble for an incumbent. A majority of voters want someone else.

Obama’s only chance is painting that other choice as so unpalatable that voters reject it.
http://pocketchangeproductions.net/ anotherindyfilmguy

The mask has been off for a while and while a lot of people won’t like the R candidate (whichever it is for whatever reason) the O has essentially done a lot to get a large number of people who liked him to dislike him over the last several years.

Unless the Dems put someone other than the O up, “liking” the Republican candidate won’t be as much of a factor as disliking the O.
jonerik

If you are correct about like-ability historically, then how did we get Nixon elected twice? Also, I don’t think Obama will come across as calm and thoughtful. He is extremely thin skinned. Just watch the debates with Hillary and some of his press conferences. Gingrich will get under his skin easily and Obama’s truest ugly colors will come out.

People talk about ‘hating’ Gingrich right now but most of them don’t really know why. Actually Gingrich is rather charming, especially when he’s in his element.
tcgeol

Since a moderately small number of Americans don’t acknowledge God, that means that we shouldn’t? I assume that you don’t travel much and just hang out with a narrow circle of people like you?

Both your comments in this thread say that we should consider what non-conservatives think and operate accordingly. If I cared deeply about their opinions, I’d be voting in the Democrat primary, not the Republican. Electability is a great thing, but giving up all virtue for electability is useless.
jonerik

The entire Bible is written about exactly these kinds of stories. In fact, the Bible, Old and New Testaments, is about the fall of man and the path forward to redemption. If the Evangelicals are true to ‘the Spirit’ then who better to exemplify the heart-changing nature of Christ than a Moses in the Wilderness, Kind David, Adam in the Garden, Saul-to-Paul type character?
califgal

there have already been lots of observations, given the break down of the voting, about Christian fundamentalists preferring a thrice-married adulterer in his personal life with serious ethical violations in his professional life to Mormon.

Fundamentalist Christianity has come under attack from the Left in the past decades as being bigoted and intolerant. These demographic breakdowns have given the Left the ability to point out the hypocrisy,

And, no, the “redemption” stuff doesn’t sell. There is no way anyone except those prone to such bigotry actually buy what Newt is selling in the redemption category, since a proclivity to excess has been the driving force of his personality forever.

Anyone looking at the luxury liners, the jewels, etc. doesn’t buy that Newt has shunned his proclivity for excess as someone on another thread pointed out. So, conversion to Catholicism, assurances of redemption, these will simply be seen as Newt’s verbal proclivities to excess. Nothing’s changed in him at all.
http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

all I am doing is pointing out that God has used some very flawed people to do great things, and second Newt has a very shady past that he is going to have to defend well in order to win Florida and beyond. What better way to accomplishment that than to talk about how you have learned from the past mistakes and acted on the changes you needed to make. Not everyone is willing to forgive, but most people understand that mistakes are made, and they do not have to be defined by them.

Never once did I say most people, or even a certain percentage think “AN appeal to God” would make their juices flow, but when it comes to talking about Newts many transgressions, it would be good if he talked about his faith.

Finally, I could care less what most Americans do or do not think. In fact, Newt does not even need to convince most Americans that he has redeemed his soul, and learned from past mistakes. He only needs to convince enough people to do that, and so far he has done a pretty good job at this, and it was Perry who just pointed out that we are all flawed, but with faith all things are possible.

As for what I do, if you read the bio you would realize that I am a University student, and I?m conservative, Which means I do not surround myself with people who think like me, it is the exact opposite, I surround myself with people who think like you. Now instead of being imbecilic with your condescending comments, please explain why it is a bad idea Newt uses his faith to explain why his past mistakes should be forgiven.

I am not so intransigent that I think Newt is beyond redemption; and it is a complete canard to say most Americans do not appreciate a story of redemption, especially when it involves a person everyone said was done, including myself. So I am thinking maybe you do not “understand your fellow Americans, do you?”
http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

why in the world should we care what the small percentage that hate all things faith think. I have a hard time believing that Americans will always reject that comeback kid, in fact history tells a different story altogether.
yoni2511

“Obama?s only chance is painting that other choice as so unpalatable that voters reject it”

With the way Romney has acted in the the primary, Chicago is not going to have a very hard time destroying Romney..
avgjo

It is apparent that you have not read the Founders’ writings, or if you have, you missed much of what they said about God and morals in the role of our country’s survival.

What we consider essential ‘American’ rights are ‘unalienable’ rights coming from God, acknowledged as such by even pagans like Plato, Aristotle and Cicero. As such, we are in an obligatory relationship with Him; He gives us our rights, and expects us as a society to act a certain way. If we don’t, we suffer the consequences, which includes losing those rights and destruction of society.

Many, even on our side, don’t believe this, and seem to think if they just pretend it isn’t so, it won’t happen and God will go away.

He won’t. And it will.
avgjo

It is apparent that you have not read the Founders’ writings, or if you have, you missed much of what they said about God and morals in the role of our country’s survival.

What we consider essential ‘American’ rights are ‘unalienable’ rights coming from God, acknowledged as such by even pagans like Plato, Aristotle and Cicero. As such, we are in an obligatory relationship with Him; He gives us our rights, and expects us as a society to act a certain way. If we don’t, we suffer the consequences, which includes losing those rights and destruction of society.

Many, even on our side, don’t believe this, and seem to think if they just pretend it isn’t so, it won’t happen and God will go away.

He won’t. And it will.
curtmilr

Obama only won because, even in the worst possible year to do so, the GOP downsized their own turnout compared to GWB’s reelection bid. Moderate McCain was so unpopular he had a chilling effect on the base. Did you not hear the roars in response to Newt at the debates? That’s not chilly at all. The base would be energized, and in a center/right country against a poor performing incumbent, that should be enough.

I agree that Perry should stay Governor. VP is a step down from that office.

The VP should be from a swing State, without additional baggage and executive experience. Daniels & Pawlenty come to mind.
elayman

It isn’t even that fancy. They live in a fairly modest red brick house for heaven’t sake. And there is problem indulging the wife, but it is Callista, not Newt, that truly knows how to rack up the bills.
califgal

1) First time : Does the Democrat mess of VietNam sound familiar? Johnson announcing he wouldn’t run again. Rioting in the streets. The cops beating demonstrators? Richard Daley at the Democrat Convention in Chicago? His Veep, Hubert H. Humphrey? VietNam. Rioting in the streets? Need I say more…no, but I will…

2) Second time: VietNam still. Do you recall “Peace with Honor?” Do you recall most Americans attitude toward Nixon’s wimpy opponent (a former WW2 pilot who sounded like Pee Wee Herman when he spoke), George McGovern, who wanted to cede victory to the North Vietnamese?

3) Don’t forget, too, we were engaged in the Cold War, and an SOB like Nixon and an old pro like Kissinger, were seen as men who’d help us sleep better at night when looking at those ugly old Soviet leaders. Nixon had performed well in stepping in for IKE when IKE had his heart attacks.

Man, give me Richard Nixon any old day to Newt Gingrich. Watergate and all.
califgal

People are already asking, “What’s up with Republicans? They used to be the party with the smart people.”

Like it or not, Governor Perry, out of the South, is perceived as s-l–o—w. I see nothing in his demeanor that will change that perception.

Also, give up the Texas connection, would ya. Texas will vote R, no matter what, but Perry would cost you states, as will Gingrich.
califgal

Yeah, yeah, yeah…and are you one of those guys that tries claiming that Deists were Christian?

Have you read Jefferson, man?
oldlady

Listened to Gingrich’s speech carefully last night and understand why Perry told us that he was endorsing Gingrich because he thought he was the only one (left standing) that would carry ”the message” forward.

Gingrich was never even my second choice (Perry was ALWAYS my first) before Perry left and made his endorsement. But listening to Gingrich last night I realized why Perry wants people like me to now support Newt. And I am now doing so because, upon careful consideration, I agree with Perry.

Gingrich is now on a crusade against the GOP elite establishment which is trying to assasinate him just like they did Perry, because he’s a threat to their mandarin kingdom. And much as I dearly love Rick Perry, I must admit that Gingrich is the best wordsmith in national politics. For those who actually listened to Newt, as I did, last night he was articulating the most of the things that were originally included in the Tea Party movement’s agenda. I felt he was speaking for we grassroots conservatives all over America.

After yesterday’s election I see a threatened GOP elite establishment and they are going after Gingrich now hammer and tong. The carnage will come from both the GOP elites and the elite media as well (amongst which I now include FAUX News who slaughtered Perry).

We need to join the grassrooters in South Carolina who ignored the elites in the establishment in trying to force their pre-annointed one, Mitt Romney, down their throats and reacted by sending a resounding message. We all need to do the same!

Go Newt….. And Godspeed!
oldlady

Listened to Gingrich’s speech carefully last night and understand why Perry told us that he was endorsing Gingrich because he thought he was the only one (left standing) that would carry ”the message” forward.

Gingrich was never even my second choice (Perry was ALWAYS my first) before Perry left and made his endorsement. But listening to Gingrich last night I realized why Perry wants people like me to now support Newt. And I am now doing so because, upon careful consideration, I agree with Perry.

Gingrich is now on a crusade against the GOP elite establishment which is trying to assasinate him just like they did Perry, because he’s a threat to their mandarin kingdom. And much as I dearly love Rick Perry, I must admit that Gingrich is the best wordsmith in national politics. For those who actually listened to Newt, as I did, last night he was articulating the most of the things that were originally included in the Tea Party movement’s agenda. I felt he was speaking for we grassroots conservatives all over America.

After yesterday’s election I see a threatened GOP elite establishment and they are going after Gingrich now hammer and tong. The carnage will come from both the GOP elites and the elite media as well (amongst which I now include FAUX News who slaughtered Perry).

We need to join the grassrooters in South Carolina who ignored the elites in the establishment in trying to force their pre-annointed one, Mitt Romney, down their throats and reacted by sending a resounding message. We all need to do the same!

Go Newt….. And Godspeed!
califgal

wins, BUT, those looking on whose votes we need, will think in terms of the GOP, and the remarks Newt made about Bain will doom the party in its attempt to re-establish the bona fides of capitalism.

Newt was/is really, really showing his selfishness with that one.

For that alone, Reagan would be Newt’s enemy forever.
califgal

Just think about all the magazine covers juxtaposing the Obama hubby, wife, two kids and dog with Newt and Calista, the prospective President and FIRST LADY OF THE UNITED STATES.

We’ve got problems in River City and allllll over the place with that picture.
courdeleon02

With Newt Gingrich at the top of ticket it will look like 1964 when Goldwater brought down the Party with an LBJ landslide. Nothing like nominating a losse cannon for the presidency. Something to think about.
avgjo

Howzabout John Adams, bra? Or Benjamin Rush, man?

The only problem TJ had with the Bible was the miracles. The moral stuff he loved, and in his personalized Bible, he just took out the supernatural material and left the moral stuff.

Fail.

BTW, how’s that California sophistication (‘don’t judge, dewd’, ‘God is not in politics, man’, ‘life however you want’ etc) working for ya’ll out there? Oh, right, it isn’t. Between being on the verge of bankruptcy on the one side and being taken over by illegal immigrants on the other, California ain’t such a great place.

for years, now they’ve said, ‘as California, so the rest of the country’. In that time, we’ve slipped further and further down the tubes and we’re about to get the final flush. So much for Californication.

But like I said, you (me, whoever) can try to ignore God. He won’t stand for it.
jonerik

Like-ability isn’t the determining factor. You are certainly right about the Nixon era…cometh the hour, cometh the man. Nixon WAS the right guy to shepherd the nation through those times.

So, looking at your points one through three, it seems that in these times we have different problems but with similar characteristics, politically…only much worse practically and economically.

Right now this nation needs a certain kind of SOB but can also carry a visionary agenda to the people. There’s no way Mitt fits the bill but Newt just might. I wouldn’t take Nixon’s somewhat Statist bent for THESE times.
earlgrey

Why exactly is this a victory for consevatives?
ctredstater

it is mostly a name recognition deal. If Newt is anywhere close to even it means he is 6-8 points ahead.

we all live in an alternate universe – where we follow this stuff obsessively. 50% of the likely voters in the 2012 general are just vaguely following it.

the Republican nominee will have a HUGE platform from having won the right to go head to head with Obama. It will be Hard Left Anti-America Socialism v. either Rockefeller Republicanism or Gingrich Sort-of Conservatism.

Obama isn’t going to get any better between now and November. Talk about Newt being unlikable. Now that the veneer is off the World’s Greatest Orator, how likable is that sneering, condescending, cynical lying Jackass? How does the man or woman whose family can barely make ends meet, who is unemployed or underemployed – identify with the Royal Family in the White House jetting off to their next seven figure vacation?

Reagan was approximately 10 points behind Carter in head to head at this point. He was nearly neck and neck going into the last week of the 1980 campaign – and he won in a blowout.

The articulation of principled conservatism – which Newt did brilliantly this week – and a good dose of Newt finally growing up (I have less hope, but still some, for this) and this could be the game-changing election we all know it needs to be.

so my take is – if head to head is close, we are way ahead. if Newt is within 6 points – it is a tossup.
ctredstater

nt
macbookben

who needed a strong, likable personality, like Sara Palin, to get as far as he did. On the contrary, Newt IS the personality. Like Palin, you have to either love him or hate him, but you cannot ignore him. The list of prospective running mates will have to include individuals whose personalities will not clash, or otherwise obstruct the man with ‘big ideas’. He will need someone that complements his complexity, who can balance his unattractive, egoistic tendencies. But that won’t be enough to get him over the finish line in the race against Obama. Newt’s veep is going to need leverage.

To attract those now disaffected voters of Obama in ’08, Newt and company will have to look at, cynical as this may sound, conservatives who come from ‘diverse’ backgrounds. I think this cynicism comes from the media anyway. So why not leverage it?

While I think John Bolton would be an excellent selection for veep, such a choice would ignore the reality that an all-white ticket will give the democrat-media complex an effective weapon to use in the psychological propaganda warfare against a nervous, guilt-ridden demographic of the squishy moderates. That 10-15% of Bush-fatigued whites who voted for Obama in ’08 to, among other things, absolve themselves of guilt over 400 years of racist oppression, will head to the poles next November with the media-generated suggestion that voting against BHO now makes you even more despicable than the Mcain/Palin voters from the previous election.

Newt will have an opportunity to turn the tables here. Mark Rubio, J.C. Watts, Allen West are all worthy choices, and I wish I could think of more right off the top of my head. So let the media make the mistake of accusing Newt of pandering to hispanic and black voters. I would love to see another one of Newt’s primetime moderator smackdowns. Punch Anderson Cooper in nose, and you’ve effectively bloodied up Obama’s
gracie

It’s PERRY.

The people who have been paying attention know full well that there were a number of reasons Perry lost and went back to Texas. Many of us here are very proud of the man he is.

And as to your other allegations that “the polls” show Gingrich easily beatable…have you not also been paying attention that we had a game changing event happen yestgerday in NC? I think this makes ALL polls outdated…the unfavorable one as well as the head to head match up.

I am interested in the polls going forward. I happened to be watching CNN, which had an extra hour of coverage last night, and there was a fair and balance analysis of who won S Carolina in 08 compared to today. It seems that Gingrich won the Bible belt in SC that Huckabee won was well as the rest of the state that McCain won not counting the two urban areas.

Newt’s winning fundamentalists is a game changer. So I am interested in Looking FORWARD to see what happens in Florida and beyond. It is certainly a giggle that the establishment and media got Perry out only to get Newt. Let’s see how it all plays out!
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

The attacks on Bain were hyperbole, and to assume one by attacking one particular capitalist’s actions you’ve doomed the party, is likewise hyperbole.

Nothing of the sort did or will happen. Newt has walked back some of his statements and has been careful to insist that he is NOT attacking free enterprise.

If Romney gets his story straight – and he’s wised up enough to release his tax record – he’ll be a better candidate and will be innoculated. Let the Dems inform people that Romney was making tough business decisions back when Obama was a street activist.
if he’s got a glass jaw on this, better to know now than in October. That’s my point.
gracie

n/t
conservativeparrothead

Newt has already gone farther than McCain would ever go in pointing out the radicalism of Obama, with the comparisons to Saul Alinsky and going after his community organizer background, McCain was wasting opportunities citing Joe the Plumber a dozen times in an interview.

McCain really gave people nothing to latch onto.

- In political life, he was a bitter agitator. When the Conservatives voted for Bush, he decided to get them back and work with Dems, reject Bush tax cuts, etc…when he was rejected by Independents in 2008, his record has been pretty conservative since then. Its not principles, its personal with him.

- He had no issues or accomplishments which he could really hang his hat onto.

- He had limited abilities to articulate and sell Conservatism and articulate why it is the best way.

- His campaign was horribly run and chaotic. The suspension to go back to Washington?
oldlady

He always has. He can’t help but continue his looking-down-his-nose habit whilst speechifying. No one! Even Gingrich! Is more arrogant than Obama. and you are right ”jonerik”. Gingrich would get under Obama’s thin skin like no one else, and it would be a pure pleasure to behold.
rememberthealamo

Former Perry supporter. Old enough to remember Newt as Speaker. Doesn’t scare me off Newt for President!
rememberthealamo

Tired of moderates and Rhinos playing your version of the “race card” with empty threats that “we’ll lose the House and Senate with Newt!”

Horsefeathers!

Prove your silly statement.
rememberthealamo

Try a CONSERVATIVE hispanic. Rubio or better yet, Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico.
oldlady

which went bankrupt and left us taxpayers, by way of the Federal Government, picking up the tab for the former employees pensions, then THAT is NOT free enterprise capitalism. That is ”croney capitalism” and smacks of socialism. Pure and simple.
oldlady

some of their deals, and walked away with millions in personal profit, that is also ”CRONY CAPITALISM”, and smacks of socialism too.
ctredstater

The base has been searching for someone who can articulate conservatism in a way that is persuasive and easily understood by the conservative base, the Rockefeller Republicans, Reagan Democrats and the others in the great unwashed moderate middle.

Newt had two moments of absolutely crystalline clarity – that if he continues – and applies this type of conservative philosophy and communication ability he can and will win.

– jamming Juan Williams by not merely challenging his own racist assumptions – but by showing that a job is the ultimate in “Compassionate Conservatism” – to a standing O.

– explaining that the reason the Obamians were so insistent on having 27 year old live-at-homes on the parents healthcare insurance is because they wouldn’t have a job under Obama’s policies. Making the offer – vote for us and your kids won’t need this particular feature because they will have their own job and their own healthcare.

If Newt can take the nuggets of simple genius contained in these examples and explain the rest of conservatism as clearly and as simply – he will win in a blowout and have nice coat-tails as well.

Go Mr. Speaker Go!!!
yoni2511

It was a reference to Colbert making a complete ass out of Parry without even breaking a sweat.. Don’t be such a sensitive sara or in your case a gullible gracie.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/08/10/colbert-vote-for-parry/
http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

Appreciate it: we were still on the fence, until you rather stupidly tipped your hand on this. Protip, kid: never u… ah, never mind. Why teach you to be a better fake?
fightnright

and am disgusted to admit how little my persuasion has been related to campaign platform, candidates’ CV’s, record of ethical/moral standing, congressional voting background and Beltway affiliations, history of legislative accomplishment, etc.

Most of my calculations have been based on my ever-changing algorithm of likeability + negativity quotients, demographic blocs, fund-raising abilities, and the candidates’ emotional/psychological profiles: aka their ‘loose cannon’ factors… don’t want a Republican Howard Dean ‘yeeeeeeeaaaaaahhhhhh!!!’ moment (though if there is one, it’ll have been brought on and magnified in the media by our party’s elites, as Dean’s was by his party. Q.: DO the party elites ever know inside baseball secrets about the candidates’ personalities that we don’t know?}

Anyhow, formerly leaning Romney or no, I am preparing myself to face the prospect of a tough race with *any* of our guys now. Never having seen conservatives so divided and bitter about their choices (and about each other! =/), yet while still praying for an Obama-heaval, I will watch the most scientific data, follow the handicapping of those pundits I tend to trust, and hope for an outcome the nation so desperately needs.
avgjo

I remember an episode of Little House on the Prairie. Michael Landon’s character said, ‘there’s no better teacher than a reformed reprobate.’

Our weak, moody, reactive culture has forgotten this key of human nature and human affairs.

I hope the speaker takes that angle. He’s smart enough, he might just do so.
cheetah2

I just do not get how the evangelicals can say a Newt nomination means we can’t talk about family values. Newt has violated them in the past but from what he has said, (And, Texas Tami, I believe he has already said much of what you here advise him to say in that Thanksgiving Family Forum that was held in Iowa) he knows these past actions were wrong and he has 12 years of right living under his belt now.

Since when does a reformed sinner not have any say about the values that he has learned are right precisely because of the sad experiences his wrong doing brought on himself and those he loves?
fightnright

..after all, it’s still way early.

But regardless of all our personal beliefs, the scientific pollsters have been amazing close to predicting the outcomes of elections (within a couple of percentage points) in the last few contests. And the primary is still a horserace at this point.
acat

Obama and Romney both have tentacles in the same Illinois swamp….

The oppo research teams may know each other. Heck, in some cases they may be the same team!

Mew
avagreen
jakeofalltrades

to torment conservative masochists.
cheetah2

I did have a negative impression of her probably as she is viewed so negatively by so many. Newt’s speech last night was the first time I got a look at her on TV. She appeared ladylike, humble, thankful, sweet, a bit teary eyed, and maybe even shy.

I did a little more research on her. She is a singer and lifelong musician (she plays the french horn), she is a photographer, and she writes children’s stories extolling US history and patriotism. She is a philanthropist and a devoted Catholic. She is the wife of one husband, and her past indiscretions with that same man seem to be her only fall from grace.

In my opinion she is definite First Lady material, far more so than Mrs. “I am finally proud of my country” Obama. So what if Callista likes sparkly things? I do too if I could only afford them. So what if she likes being a platinum blonde. These are minor flaws. I sure don’t anticipate her meddling in the food choices of her fellow Americans if she becomes our First Lady!

Another thing I like about this couple: Gingrich mentions her constantly and has a lot about her accomplishments on his web site- he honors her which is good, yet she stays in the background of his campaign. Gingrich seems to be very protective of her which is right as she is vulnerable because of her past history.
califgal

You are deceiving yourself.

Obama’s personal favorables have remained high in spite of the bad economy, unheard of , actually.
califgal

You seem not to understand just how much people who don’t have an “r’ by their registration hate Gingrich.

In fact, just to remind you, many GOPers, such as myself, hate Gingrich. I hate him personally, and I hate his arrogance, and I hate that he has never demonstrated an ability to remain stable in any aspect of his life, not with collegues, not with wives, not with ANYONE, even his children.

I don’t need a guy like that as President,

If I feel that way, imagine how Dems, whose votes we need, feel. Imagine how independents feel.

Newt is a turn-off to all but those who are or were or continue to be not-Romneys.

But you don’t get it–that’s not where the heads of MOST AMERICANS are.

They see a guy like Newt–bombastic, caustic, as representative of all politicians, while you see him as some kind of savior to combat Obama. But, they don’t hate Obama the way you do. They don’t hate him at all. They like him and WANT him to be successful.
earlgrey

Capatalism. But if that is the claim than how does Newt also justify his fees he got for consulting for Fannie and Feeddie?

How do we so accept how he stabbed Ryan in the back on his budget several months ago.

He is no conservative.
califgal

with Newt Gingrich. man?
elayman

Just a little needy and materialistic perhaps. She for sure she has that icy, translucent Stepford wife image down good which absolutely exudes wealth (botox, eerily flawless plastic surgery, hair bleach, lip/eyebrow/bikini waxes, starvation diets, liposuction…). And after slamming Romney on twitter it is all far game.
califgal

things…because he’s unlikable, get it?

I can’t tell you how many in my neighborhood said, “If that guy gets it, I have to vote for Obama.”

You don’t have to like that; you don’t have to understand it. You simply need to accept it’s the way the average independent and Reagan Dem feels.

Remember, Dems were “able” to vote for Ronald Reagan because he NEVER, EVER came off as arrogant or smug or self-serving like Newt.
califgal

ability to win over Dems and independents must not live in purple states.
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

I think he’d actually do very well here.
califgal

wait until more about the arms deal scandal pours out.

We are doomed.
cheetah2

she appears NOT to have had a nose job. I am sad that I have seen people make fun of her nose, when she ought to be commended for keeping the one God gave her!

So…she has fair skin. I do too. Botox: don’t know what that looks like. Plastic surgery: see above. hair bleach: oh well. waxing: laser hair removal more likely for a wealthy person. bikini wax: how do you even know that? Dieting does not require wealth. I know lots of skinny people. They have not had liposuction.

I know her looks leave her open to all this criticism. As you said, it doesn’t make her a bad person and doesn’t mean she is not a perfectly awesome person either.

She is smart anyway- high school class valedictorian, College graduate with honors. That’s good- she has a brain like her husband.

OK I checked out the twitter thing.
She apparently retweeted 2 mildly negative comments from someone else. And here they are:

“Mitt’s ‘Money Never Sleeps’ photo. I personally don’t mind it, but it won’t play well in Ohio – youtu.be/wtRGmp2mQbk,’ read one tweet, originally posted by a Gingrich supporter with the handle @UnitedStates.

Another one, about Romney’s appearance on Fox News Sunday, read, “Poor Romney. He just is a sound bite candidate. Chris Wallace pulled the string from his back, and he spewed consultant approvd policy.”

If that makes her bad I better be more careful what I retweet in future!
clintonformccain

… but I don’t honestly think I could bring myself to vote for Newt Gingrich. I’d probably have to go vote for Scott Brown and vote against John Tierney for Congress (I told him personally that I would vote against him in every election until he’s out of office or I’m dead, whichever comes first).
clintonformccain

somebody could figure out how to get on the ballot in Virginia….
TexasTami

…he’s said some of it, but really hasn’t put it together in a complete sound bite that conservatives/Tea Partiers/religious people/Christians can use. Redemption plays well in the South. Acknowledging the Redeemer plays better. “Church” is not the Redeemer. Newt has spoken highly of his “faith” and his “Church” but not about his Redeemer. One or two sentences would do it. Christians in the South are mostly evangelicals. They love hearing about their Redeemer’s work in someone’s life. So, actually, in my original post on this subject, I said “redemption” heals broken lives. I should have said the “Redeemer” heals broken lives.

And you’re right–”a reformed sinner” has a lot to say about family values. All the more reason to talk about them in a Newt presidency. He’s lived it.
avgjo

You’re the second person this week to fall into that trap.

Notice I put ‘unalienable’ in quotes. That’s because I know it’s a different spelling from ‘inalienable’. It’s the spelling used in the Declaration of Independence.

You brought up God above. I merely responded. You asserted that ‘an appeal to God’ wouldn’t matter to many Americans. I agreed with you.

What’s with all the ‘man’s, man?
Valrobex

I doubt if he is old enough to remember the ’64 election or even the ’80 election. I am, and remember the same unsubstantiated claims about Reagan.

To paraphrase Rush: Well articulated Conservatism always wins – and Gingrich does that exceptionally well. He also has the track record while Speaker of the House of accomplishing Conservative changes.

The reason some Old Guard Republicans can’t stand Gingrich is that he upset the Republican liberal ( er… excuse me, moderate) apple cart. He took them on and won. They attacked him then and continue to do so because he was a very effective agent of change for Conservatism.
Adjoran

We had to throw his worthless butt out.

Enjoy the knife he places in your back at his convenience.
Adjoran

Neither has any other political figure for the last 16+ years.

Independents and swing voters hate his guts, and that hasn’t changed even as the parties and other individuals go up and down in polls. Newt just stays hated.

But it’s okay, he’ll poke the media a few times in a debate, so it will be worth losing the House, not winning the Senate, reelecting Obama, and killing America, right?
acat

(null)
http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

It was the big-government guys – Livingston, etc – who tossed Newt. Good to know you’re a big-government toad.
acat

Remember that John Anderson was so opposed to Reagan that he threw away his career to run third-party as the “other Republican choice”.

Mew
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

He resigned after the election losses in 1998.
http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

…took me quite a few more years before I appreciated Reagan’s vision.
http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

It’s late for me.
Adjoran

well AFTER his election runs.
Adjoran

A good number of these folks here and commenters/members at other conservative sites are very frustrated (count me among them) and love to get the red meat thrown their way.

Perhaps you’ve noticed that this year more than before those who back a candidate seem to get emotionally invested without evaluating objectively, and treat any criticism of “their guy” as an attack. Just as Cain supporters thought they could cry “nuts-’n'-sluts!” and get past the sex allegations, Newt backers seem to believe the American public, which has disdained Newt at a level unseen by other politicians for over 16 years, will turn to him against Obama.

I like to get in Obama’s face with facts and confront the media as much as the next conservative but I recognize the votes we need to win this election are from many who voted for Obama last time. These independent voters don’t have to love our guy, but if they hate him they will either stay home or even vote for Obama again as the least of two evils.

Not to mention the trouble Newt will inevitably cause for himself, as he always does.

“This time will be different” is not a winning strategy.
conservativeparrothead

Nixon, a little before my time, but wasnt he considered pretty much a has-been at that point? Not so much because of the 1960 election, but then coming home to California and losing the Governor’s race there in 1962.

Funny thing is that a lot of people compare the Newt return somewhat to Nixon in terms of returning from the political scrap heap, but whats also funny is that one of Nixon’s primary rivals for the nomination was none other than George Romney.
JSobieski

He was #2 on my list (behind Perry), but I did argue with folks not to discount him.

Newt has shrewd political skills. One of the reasons people like Coburn dislike him is that Newt will try to cut deals—but they will be deals that are very much in a rightward direction.

Newt is not a Bachmann who comes across as my way or screw you. Independent voters will appreciate that aspect of Newt if he can sucessfully reveal that aspect to him.

If Newt can stay disciplined enough to win the nomination (a fairly big IF), then he could be the most effective candidate we have had at the P level since Reagan.

My concerns are not so much Newt as a candidate as it is Newt as President. But that is another story.
elayman

Callista may be devoted and dedicated to the job of First Lady penchant for bizarre looks non-withstanding. She does have better taste in trinkets than Michelle. But there no faking that appetite for expensive jewels, interest free loan from Tiffanys (a lobbying gift ?), perception of conflict of interest as a Congressional aide on the Mining committee, Medicare tax evasion, sex scandals, etc.

Perhaps understandably Newt aides that quit are now saying that she was a prime reason – the “Mediterranean Cruise” was simply the straw that broke the camel’s back.
cheetah2

My son said he would not vote for either Romney or Gingrich. So it’s Obama for him I guess.

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Thoughts on the SC primary.

COMMENTS

ALL

COMMENTS

POPULAR

#RSRH

PICK YOUR STATE & GET LOCAL