« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

The Great New York Redistricting Headache.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  February 14th, 2012 at 10:15 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

So, we’re having ourselves a situation in New York with redistricting. The basics: New York, like many blue states that have been blue states for a while, has seen its population ratio to the rest of the country drop sufficiently that it’s losing two Congressional Districts this cycle. So they’re all trying to figure out how to redraw the map for an optimal destroy-your-enemies approach:

  • New York Democrats want to mess over New York Republicans. The New York GOP is defending several federal Congressional seats (six of the seven GOP-held seats are effectively freshmen) and its Senate majority; and New York Democrats are eager to try to winnow those numbers down. If they can figure out how to do it without eliminating a downstate district. Or two, frankly.
  • New York Republicans, on the other hand, are digging in their heels until they get at least their state Senate majority preserved (note that there is precious little loyalty, on either side, between the state and national parties).
  • And then there’s Governor Andrew Cuomo. He’s a Democrat… which means that he’s usually at war slightly more often with the Republican-controlled Senate than he is with the Democratic-controlled Assembly. He’s also currently stuck with a veto threat that, if not followed, will hurt his chances for later higher office. But if Cuomo does veto whatever devil’s bargain the New York legislature comes up with, then… Bad Things Happen.

And that’s why the courts are now involved. Justice Dora Irizarry (Republican, by the way*) has called for the Second Court of Appeals to create a three-judge panel that will settle this issue. State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos is noticeably nonchalant about the possible results, which suggests that either: the fix is in and the Democrats are about to get slammed; or that Skelos is going to use the threat that the Democrats are about to get slammed as a tool for getting the state Senate district maps that he wants. All depends on how cynical you’re feeling today, really.

Then again, it’s the New York legislature. Hard to be too cynical about those people.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*Heck of a thing when Wikipedia spells such things out and St. Johns University won’t.

Tags: ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • freemanja1991

    Would probably favor us, if the judges are interested in making fair maps.
    I just Want NY-27 to stay entirely within Erie county
    I want Louise Slaughter’s district to be completely within Monroe County.
    Those two improvements would greatly help shave down the gerrymandering.

  • proudgop

    The NY Senate Republicans are actually adding a Senate Seat to keep their majority and its likely to end up in court. Already talk Republicans would rather keep majority in Senate then fight for Republicans which is bad

    Been talk of Crowley/ McCarthy being drawn together for Dems
    Burkle/Hanna for Republicans

    Slaughter and Higgins district lost most population and should be combined.

    Its likely to end up in court I have no idea what makeout of that court is. Pataki didnt do much build party doubt he did much in way of picking judges

  • porkandcheese

    I’m going to look for the local newspaper (there are a lot of them here in Park Slope/Prospect Heights aka Gowanus) that broke it down more. I took it as a white flag, because they were arguing redistricting should be a nonpartisan process and whining that mean Republicans were making incumbents run against one and other and hopefully Cuomo would veto these shenanigans.

  • lizzie

    thanks moe for the link on NY4. McCarthy had a strong challenge in 2010, and was caught publicly whining about being forced to campaign, but the real backstory about how to redraw Long Island has to do with the voters –

    anyway, NY’s population chnages means that the two CDs HAVE to disappear north of the Tappen Zee bridge. Which is why Hinchey’s retirement was such a major breakthrough.

    all ye who think New York is suddenly going non-partisan need to wake up.
    NOT in 2012. too much investment in political mapping infrastructure and staff.

    All I want to see is if they divide Borough Park, Brooklyn into four or five CDs.
    ok, I also want to see where I wind up – mapping the required majority-minority CDs is getting very tricky south of the Cross County Parkway :)

    and I still think Breezy Point and the Rockaways will wind up in NY10, leaving Bob Turner facing Michael Grimm, and NY GOP will not mind because they will be so focussed on all of Long Island, and Ackerman will not find that easy.

    heh heh heh.

  • freemanja1991

    There is a way to cut a map that gives both of them a favorable district, I found while playing with Dave’s redistricting app.

  • freemanja1991

    Also if Slaughter and Higgins will be hard to draw together, Slaughters district is already awful and disgusting, and cannot take in all the dem voter necessary. Just put them in two districts. both would be about 15 points favorable to dems on average.

  • lizzie

    while I do not want to spoil anyone’s fantasies of non-partisan redistricting for New York, I worked on this in 2003-04 – on the actual mapmaking.

    Tremendous focus on how to redistrict downstate (south of Tappan Zee), and, best way to deal with NY9 is to change it and Breezy Point, where Turner lives) and the Rockaways will be added to NY10, already the one GOP CD in NYC that is ‘allowed’.

    NY9 will continue to be gerrymandered through the adjacent majority-minority CDs. I expect Crowley’s NY7 to exit The Bronx and be all Queens.

    well, enough – no need for all those maps to again re-circulate in my head.

    not being in the betting business, I would still bet one dollar that Turner will be redistricted out of NY9.

    I just do not want to get redistricted out of Engel’s CD into Serrano’s CD because then I would be in a CD where no one would ever do anything – it is like a no-show paycheck. at least Engel sort of pays attention when you are a Jewish voter in his district.

  • naraht

    State Senate Districts can vary up to 5% either way. I saw a map showing that *all* of the update districts are population light and all of the city/Long Island distrcts (plus a little bit of the area north of the city) are population heavy. If it weren’t for doing congressional redistricting, I’d expect a veto and the Dems taking their chances with the courts. (of course that could easily lead to some of the Republicans who voted for Gay Marriage having to face other incumbent Republicans in primaries)

    As for Congressional, its a whole lot more political than Massachuetts or Iowa (more like new Jersey). I’ve always heard that they’d have to lose one seat downstate and one upstate, (which confuses me with the comment about having to lose population North of the Tappan Zee. Does anyone know where I can find a map with the 2010 Census figures in the current congressional districts?

  • proudgop

    I heard Silver doesn’t want to dismantle Turner district. If republicans can add some points to Grimm, Hayworth, Gibson upstate its big plus. We should fight to protect Hanna and Burkle.

    The dems want to protect Bishop, Owens, and Hochul.

    On senate front I don’t trust girasanti he might switch

    What should long island battle be for us?

  • jomo2009

    to sacrifice Turner’s district in return for a favorable state senate plan.