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Electoral implications of the Obama Administration’s War on Coal.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  May 22nd, 2012 at 06:30 PM  | 

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Will this be the 2012 election map?

If the Obama administration keeps up their War on Coal (literally: they consider coal more dangerous than terrorism), quite possibly. And it may be at least partially because of coal.

The basic framework for this argument is this map:

…which shows the top sixteen coal-producing states in the USA. There’s a total of 182 Electoral Votes at stake, there – and in 2008 there were 180. Obama actually won coal-producing states in 2008, 100 to 80; and if no states flip in November, he’ll win them, 96 to 86. Except that… states are going to flip. Indiana’s already gone; and of the remaining six Obama states only New Mexico and Illinois are not considered toss-ups. The administration’s relentless hostility towards coal production and use may have already contributed to Democratic electoral disaster: since Obama took office the state governments and legislatures of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia have all been taken over by Republicans; in Colorado we flipped the House of Representatives; and in New Mexico we captured the governorship. Heck, we even gained seats in the Illinois legislature, and came very close to winning the governorship.

The question is, is it fair to wonder whether coal will make things worse for the Democrats? I think so. In Virginia they’re worried about new EPA regulations on air quality. In Colorado people are noticing that President Obama and EPA chief Lisa Jackson are fighting the United Mine Workers. Pennsylvanian Republicans are already campaigning on the issue; so are Ohioan Republicans. All in all, this combination of stubborn refusal to budge from a radical Green agenda + an economy that can pretty specifically not support the inefficient luxury of a radical Green agenda = increased risk in a variety of Obama ’08 states.

Such a shame.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

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COMMENTS

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  • http://jakespeaks.wordpress.com/ Jake W

    But I’d add Wisconsin (and probably Michigan) if Walker wins the recall–and it looks like he will.

    I think Romney will also net NH and Iowa, and maybe one of Maine’s votes.

  • wintermute

    And I think PA is even further out of the question. Wisconsin, maybe, but I doubt it. Ive been of the belief that Romney is going to win by enough electoral votes to count on one hand. I really think its all about ohio, virginia, north carolina, and florida. I think Romney is looking good in NC and FL, and I think Ohio and Va are going to be where the raging battles are.

  • septembergurl

    tonite:

    Obama 58%
    Uncommitted 42%

    The vote in Harlan county, KY was something like Obama 25%, uncommitted 75%. That’s coal country.

  • wintermute

    thats assuming europe doesnt drag us into the abyss. if that happens and the romney campaign isnt completely drunk then its a landslide.

  • greyeagle

    I believe Republicans will turn out in full force, and I think Obama is losing or has lost some key groups. Catholics, Evangelical Hispanics, religious people of all sects. Quite a lot of Jews and others. People hate Obama and dislike Romney. They dislike Romney, but not enough to give Obama another term if it can be avoided. The EPA and their coal regulations, which will shut down a lot of electrical plants and put thousands out of jobs. This will certainly swing the election to Romney.

  • lineholder

    80K Dems vote “uncommitted”?

  • lineholder

    WI got put in the “toss up” column on the 15th.

    IL is going to get awfully lonely up there if all these toss up states end up going red!

  • zachv

    Let’s hope they stay in the “toss up” column as we move closer to November. The election’s just not on the radar of the uninformed yet. I seriously they follow suite with the Romney trend though!

  • zachv

    That the uninformed follow suite.

  • http://boldcolor.blogspot.com/ Paula

    could be the “X” factor in some of these states. Generally (with Maine and Nebraska being the exceptions), each state appoints its electors on a winner-take-all basis, based on the statewide popular vote on Election Day.

    In a state like Ohio, where coal mining is clustered in a few geographic areas, coal plants may not be as big of an issue in the general election. As we saw on primary night, Romney was able to edge out Santorum by winning in the cities-the higher population centers of the state. These are the same areas Obama will be trolling for dead people on election day. These add up quickly and turn elections.

    Where I live (NE Ohio) nobody is really talking about coal plants except in Tea Party or conservative political circles. They will once they close the electric plant in the city next door in a few years, but right now, it’s not affecting anyone’s life here. People are not that concerned about their Pittsburg Steeler-loving neighbors in Southern Ohio. They talk funny and they’ve got a screw loose for rooting for the Steelers.

    I honestly don’t think it will be an issue in this election in Ohio.

    The bigger issue is fracking which = jobs. That’s in the local papers every week. All the trendy college kids are protesting it and all the out of work steel workers and laid off factory workers are wondering if this will finally bring jobs back to the state. A fracking company recently ran a 30 mile line (that looked like a giant extension cord) through our town and neighboring town to check for seismic activity related to fracking exploration. It’s everywhere and the down-ticket Dems are rabidly against it.

  • http://boldcolor.blogspot.com/ Paula

    Apologies to my Southern Ohio aunts, uncles and cousins.

  • http://stevemaley.com Steve Maley

    http://www.tulsaworld.com/site/printerfriendlystory.aspx?articleid=20120521_16_A1_Presum328379&PrintComments=1

    Sixty-two percent of the 504 likely voters, including Democrats and independents, surveyed by SoonerPoll.com May 7-10 said they would vote for Romney, compared to only 27 percent for Obama.

    Eleven percent were undecided.

    “I think we’ve found the bottom threshold of the Democratic vote,” said SoonerPoll President Bill Shapard. …

    In March, the incumbent president managed only 57 percent of the vote against four largely unknown candidates, and just 42 percent in the 2nd Congressional District, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 1/2 to 1.

    That raises the issue of how much, if any, Obama might weigh down Democrats statewide and particularly in the 2nd Congressional District, which has a wide-open race to succeed Democrat Dan Boren.

  • lineholder

    Covers both anti-coal and anti-fracking, right?

  • lineholder

    Wow, I hope we see more that, Steve.

  • JimmyGee

    At present Wisconsin, that’s right, WISCONSIN is a toss-up! If Scott Walker does as well in the election as he did in the primary, I think Wisconsin will turn red!
    One other thing about Wisconsin and Obama, even if Wisconsin breaks for Zippy-Zero, it is going to cost him money to keep Wisconsin! I guarantee you that was NOT in Zippy-Zero’s plan just a year ago.

  • JX12

    NT

  • Tbone

    She could have beaten Obama this time around.

  • gekster

  • Finrod

    Romney has the potential to add NV, NM, IA, MN, WI, MI, NH to that list. Even NJ isn’t completely out of the question.

  • Tbone

    at voted for Obama in the Rust Belt last time. Not this time.

  • zachv

    If Walker wins in two weeks, I think it we be mostly a result of: (1) Walker’s handling of Act 10 and the budget deficit, (2) the absence of a put-together Democratic candidate and (3) non-Madison voter backlash to the labor union’s hyper-politicization of the issue over the past year.

    Of those factors, I don’t think any are an indication that Wisconsin voters are shifting their politics. It’s definitely a situational “all politics are local” thing. Sad to say, I think Wisconsin will still be a very purple state after the recall election. Some of my fellow Badgers have an unfortunate affinity for Obama.

    Of course, we might be able to pull it off this November if Mitt Romney / Scott Walker tag team. Conservative enthusiasm is at an high and if we can maintain that to November, it’s a definite win for us.

  • http://boldcolor.blogspot.com/ Paula

    Throw the pipeline in there too. And gas prices. That’s as big an issue as anything.

    The fact that we sold my son’s safe 4WD truck and got him a less safe compact car this week to save on gas costs is the War on Moms that I hold Obama personally responsible for. Those of us who live in the Snow Belt now have that extra worry this winter. When the snow flies in November we will remember who to blame for high gas prices and stupid energy efficient cars with tiny wheels. Someone ought to make that commercial.

  • acat

    They’re indicating that, yes, Wisconsin isn’t going to become a Red State the way Louisiana seems to be… but outside of the urban centers (and whatever you want to call Mad-town) y’all are still pocketbook-conservative voters.

    The race to watch, for this cat, isn’t Walker vs. Barrett, it’s the battle for Herb Kohl’s seat. At the moment, Tommy Thompson (who isn’t exactly an inspirational conservative…) is polling best on the GOP side, largely due to name recognition.

    My concern is whether Thompson’s de facto anti-tea-party stance will crack the more-or-less alliance that Walker has put together. I’d really rather see another Ron Johnson…

    If the WI GOP have a good candidate to replace Kohl and can stay together after Walker’s likely win, this could be a good year.

    Mew

  • lineholder

    one of THE most respected up-and-coming Conservatives we have, IMO. Solid as a rock.

    (***Shuddering***)

    I have Burr at Senate and Mel Watts as Rep.

    Stuff that nightmares are made of!!

  • acat

    Sen. Dick Durbin
    Sen. Roland Burris.
    Sen. Barak Obama.

    You think you’ve got it rough…

    Mew

  • lineholder

    You can have her if you want her, acat!

  • zachv

    Trounced Feingold in his reelection bid in 2010. The incumbency advantage is a steep one and man did we really luck out having such a fantastic candidate in Johnson running at the same time as the conservative swing in 2010.

    Feingold being an absolute cold fish personality didn’t help either. Makes me hopeful it’ll prevent him from ever running for President or against Walker in 2014.

  • zachv

    Really drives home the point that us Wisconsin conservatives are rallied for June 5th. :)

    You’re right too cat that this Senate race will be very interesting. I’m rooting for Hovde against Baldwin. Even though she’s rather unappealing to the non-Madison crowd, I think Tommy lacks much of the edge to really beat her out and rally the Milwaukee suburbs.

  • acat

    and, ironically, North Carolina is on my “possible” list.

    Mew

  • acat

    seems to me indicates he may *stay* out… although Tommy Thompson indicates self-important cheeseheads don’t necessarily know when to quit.

    Mew

  • http://jakespeaks.wordpress.com/ Jake Walker

    NT

  • JX12

  • JX12

    This was actually a cover of a Big Star song.

  • http://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress.com nathanalbright

    ….largely on the basis of self-interest. Obama’s administration has simultaneously gone to war against fossil fuels as well as right-to work companies, and that spells bad news in an economy that is definitely shaky and threatened by Europe’s malaise [Carter 2.0 anyone?].

  • blcartwright

    it takes loose screws to root for the Browns.

    The day after Obama announced his support for SSM, the Johnstown Pa newspaper ran on online poll on how that affected people’s votes. It was a net loss of 15% for Obama – 12% said they would now vote for him, 27% would now vote against. The rest were unchanged or undecided.

    SSM was the third strike, after coal and fracking. The poll showed Obama losing 67-27 IN A COUNTY THAT IS 70% REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.

  • blcartwright

    to color NV, NM, IA, WI, MI & NH red as well

  • davesinsanantonio

    still like him as a person (but I don’t understand why), but, they are coming to dislike his policies and the havoc they are causing. It is that dichotomy in their thinking that will hurt us when the October “surprises” hit the media.
    We need to attack Obummer’s policies and their results, and talk up conservative principles and their results, and be careful of attacking Obummer himself. That is not to say we cannot point out his lies and gaffes, Nor, “good ol’ Joe’s”. Nor, any other Dim. But, our primary message should be on substance, and let the Dims continue their own self-destruction.

  • davesinsanantonio

    not help right the ship of state, and she would have long coattails down-ballot. The best result this cycle would be to not only take back the White House and the Senate, but to increase our strength in state houses and city halls everywhere. Hillary would have diminished all those opportunities.

  • davesinsanantonio

    probably voted for Reagan because of self-interest too. Maybe this time it sink in that their true self-interest, and the security and prosperity of our country, does not reside with the Dims, but with conservative Rs. Here’s hoping they keep voting that way.

  • The_Gadfly

    Whether or not they do is a whole other question that will never be answered. Think of it as the new Bradley Effect. The man reeks of snobbery and I’d never have a beer with him even if I drank beer.

    I agree we should fight policies and not people. The problem there is that when you are dealing with the progressive/fascist/socialist/communist part of the political spectrum, the pols advocating the policies can’t themselves differentiate the person from the policy. So they will view it as an attack on the person. I don’t think it changes the line of attack. I do think it has to change your thinking on what and how you prepare to defend yourself.

  • michaelbowler

    I’m pretty sure it’s suit,

  • michaelbowler

    wishful thinking.

  • septembergurl

    Huge Big Star fan, born in September so..

  • edintexas

    That, as we all know, is the problem with spell check. Both words are spelled correctly, they just don’t mean the same thing.

    I put on my suit in the hotel suite. If I reversed the two words, the machine would find no problem with that.

  • renl57

    Eye halve a spelling checker
    It came with my pea sea.
    It plainly marks four my revue miss steaks eye kin knot sea.
    Eye strike a quay and type a word and weight for it to say
    Weather eye yam wrong oar write.
    It shows me strait a weigh as soon as a mist ache is maid.
    It nose bee fore two long and eye can put the error rite.
    Its rare lea ever wrong.
    Eye have run this poem threw it,
    I am shore your pleased to no.
    Its letter perfect awl the way.
    My checker told me sew.

    — Anon

  • snappy101

    You know, there are a lot of folks that don’t make the connection between coal and electricity but I don’t see the Mitt Romney, GOP or PAC people making this connection for them in TV ads. I don’t see the TV ads that talk about the war on coal as it is related to their electric bill or Obama pushing electric cars when he promised skyrocketing electricity costs, either. You can make the argument above in the coal states but the rest of the states need to know what the war on coal could mean to their electricity bills or things like food and clothing prices in pass down costs from businesses. Unless the GOP plans a big ad campaign push closer to November to educate folks on how Obama’s policies actually touch and hurt their individual lives, I think their campaign strategy communication is not so hot.

  • commonsenseobserver

    We do need to focus on individuals and families as well, not only in terms of how Obama has hurt them, but also how the GOP will help them.

  • funwithknives

    but do you live and work here?
    GOP gets in and like magic we get a budget surplus in 18 months.
    Granholm could not figure out anything of import without pillow-talk with hubby.
    As-is noted hereabouts we’re now a toss-up. After 8 years of a totally moronic Progressive ‘Leader’ as an example, there are a bunch of ‘Ganders who’ll take that bet.

    Look at the alternative……….

  • funwithknives

    a connection, even with the cord in their hand and the wall receptacle surrounded in neon.

    Many people walk into a proposed exchange [Monetary or otherwise]
    without having a clear view of what it is that they really do want. Salespeople are taught that customers never know what they want and have to be {literally} told what their needs are.
    Not for a minute can you tell me that there is not some group of assistants on Mitt’s staff that does not know this down to their socks.
    But we aren’t seeing it yet and time is kinda short.
    Wonder where they’re hangin’ out…?

  • renny

    because then we are going to get the “O saved the world by assassinating osama (with classified info and endangerment of our intell as an extra bonus)” feature film by the Hurt Locker director;

    prob. “evolving” endorsement of the Keystone Pipeline;

    “serious” reservations about his “evolved” position on gay marriage (sop to religions);

    and another stab at “accommodation” with Catholics on religious freedom issues (also “evolved” and prob. from puppet Sebelius),

    Maybe he will even fire Lisa Jackson at the EPA if really , really desperate.

    Expect to see the o’s in church every Sunday starting soon and o doing clips on adopting shelter dogs and cats, tearing off the WH roof to replace with solar panels and windmills, and the o announcing he wants to be a real person and drive his own car and buy his own gasoline.

    Anything is possible.

  • renny

    Chris Christie has a 57% approval rating here, and a virtual “Uncommitted” (Republican Kyrillos) is already tied with (appointed) Robert Menendez for US Sen., and so it is not too far out of the question to see NJ, which last went Rep, nationally in 1984 for Reagan, going red again in 2012.

  • scubadiver49er

    In the last governor’s race in 2008 Brady only lost in 3 counties, Cook and the two at East St. Louis. The Tea Partiers & the GOP are really getting revved up here, so stay tuned. And in 2010 Mark Kirk beat the Democrat Gianoulias for the open Senate seat. Can’t wait for Dick Durbin to come up for re-election so we can clean his clock & throw him out as well.

  • fishgod3

    I`m new at this but I just noticed that the red states seem to be where the producers live and the blue states are where the government teat suckers live ,There may be exception to the rule but they seem few and far between.

  • fishgod3

    I don`t use it .I let my mistakes speak for themselves.79 years of life have taught me to learn from them,like voting for Obummer,that`s a mistake People shouldl never make again!!!!!!!!!

  • fishgod3

    But when I do I prefer “Dos Exes”

  • bobguzzardi

    This issue does not seem to be moving many votes in Pennsylvania or, not enough. BHO is up by 6 points over WMR and Pat Toomey’s negatives outweigh his positives.

  • justperhaps45

    NEWS FLASH from the future:

    “President Obama told the truth today! He couldn’t think of anything else to say.”

  • justperhaps45

    The process has been in considerable use since 1948. To date the only problems with wells where fracking has been used have been traced to poor cement jobs in the “down hole” portion of the well, none in the fracking section. The old wells were much shallower (higher risk) than the new applications and the techniques are now safer on all fronts.

    I have lived in oil country where the practice is used since before it started. Fracking and safely functioning pipelines are a daily part of life for us.

  • justperhaps45

    The process has been in considerable use since 1948. To date the only problems with wells where fracking has been used have been traced to poor cement jobs in the “down hole” portion of the well, none in the fracking section. The old wells were much shallower (higher risk) than the new applications and the techniques are now safer on all fronts.

    I have lived in oil country where the practice is used since before it started. Fracking and safely functioning pipelines are a daily part of life for us.

  • Ausonius

    The most recent WSJ/NBC poll had contradictory results with people supposedly voting for Romney at 60% on a question about handling the economy better, yet handing MAObama the lead over Romney.

    Plus this contradiction:

    “But the poll found much to stir concern within the burgeoning Obama re-election campaign. Despite signs of economic recovery, nearly half of Americans said the country is at the start of a long-term decline. Americans by a sizable plurality said Mr. Obama’s approach has worsened the nation’s budget deficit and health-care problems, and increased its partisan divide .”

    (My emphasis)

    See:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304019404577420533288868306.html?mod=WSJ_Election_LEFTSecondStories

    So the “coal” map above could be quite accurate for November. The danger is for Romney to peak too early, and then begin fumbling the lead away by assorted gaffes or failure to attack BIG BRObama’s lies head-on a la McLame’s Campaign of the Weak.

    Another danger is to believe the election is “close” when it is nothing of the sort, and then become even softer and squishier to attract “independents”.

  • naraht

    The 2012 poll is 62-27, Getting the same result as 2008 would be within the MoE with a 500 person survey, I think.

    Note, 65.6+34.4 =100, Oklahoma was the only state in the Union where nobody made the presidential ballot except McCain and Obama. (Nader made the ballot in every other state).

  • rick57

    In “Hotel suite” suite is pronounced “sweet”

  • ihateliberals

    The truth of the matter is that Coal, Oil and Natural Gas producing states are under the gun form the “Green Administration”. It is one thing to want ot protect the ecology but something else in wanting to destroy a country and keep it dependent on foreign oil. When coal is properly used it can be as clean as any other source of energy. Shale Oil is another source that the EPA (SS) has been fighting. Pennsylvania has oil and coal to provide relief form importing but with the Obama Green initiatives they can’t even get it out of the ground. I wanted to point out that Pennsylvania as a whole is a Republican conservative state. There are three area’s of the state that cause us to be blue and they are Philly, Pittsburgh and Erie. The saturation of lower income government dependent people always vote for the Democrats and skew the real position of the Commonwealth. These are the same areas that voted Rendell into office as Mayor of Philly and then Governor. he was a horrible Mayor and Governor as well. he left Philly and the State in pitiful shape. I certainly hope you are right with these people that depend on the mining industry for jobs remember why they are out of work.

  • celador2

    The maps are helpful images to conceptalize the coal issue, thanks.

    The Democratic party is a loose coalition of voting blocks that do not all agree eye to eye on some issues but manage to unite around a national ticket for president and VP.

    Differences among Democrats have begun to grow around domestic energy production. Some private sector unions support developing it and therefore agree with Republicans on domestic energy plans.

    Obama seem to be holding back domestic energy as are similar Democrats holding back mining in states. The war on coal affects Democrats as much as Republicans but it also is a targeted evil by almost as many active Democrats who want to shut coal mines.

    In Virginia, PA, OH, IL, IN, WV, WI, MI throughout the US there is a divide among Democrats over coal. Most voters support coal if it helps a state grow jobs and is clean and cheap. But some voters are indifferent to war on coal or are actively involved in backing Obama EPA.These have clout.

    In Wisconsin the anti mining (not coal ), Democrats with help from one Republican killed a mining bill that lost some supportive union workers who then turned on the majority that killed the mine bill. Environmentalists threatened five Democrats into voting against the bill.

    In Pittsburg there are grounds to think all the once employed steel workers would vote for Republicans, in WV Dems may cross party lines and support Pat Morrisey for AG, And we may see the same in VA that enough do vote Republican to save coal and mining.

    GOP must make energy an economic issue that voters remember or else anti coal Democrats will win and take Obama ‘s victory as a mandate to kill coal and much domestic energy production.

    Voters must know the difference between Romney GOP united and Obama on coal and energy.
    No to costly EPA regulations that kill jobs and energy independence..

  • scubadiver49er

    I beleive that the people of Wisconsin all saw their state taxesl go DOWN under Walker’s watch. I doubt that many of them will want that to be reversed under Democratic rule. Maybe only the union folks?

  • tnfriendofcoal101368

    My deepest sympathies, are you sure you and Mrs. Cat want Junior Cat around those kinds of influences?

  • tnfriendofcoal101368

    Cat if self important winbags like Thompson weren’t running for office what would they do…we’d have to put them on welfare, buy them nice houses, health care, pay them a good salary to do nothing useful…kind of like another self important gasbag VP Joe Biden.

  • acat

    and I’ve turned out okay.

    Offspring always have to figure it out for themselves… didn’t you?

    Mew

  • tnfriendofcoal101368

    was joking about being a Conservative in the shadow of the Chicago thug machine…din’t mean to offend. I apologize.

  • acat

    Just .. clarifying.

    And yes, raising a family in the shadow is .. interesting. Still, I know I won’t get certain “my child went to college and discovered …..” phone calls .. because the end results have been on display.

    Mew

  • michaelbowler

    …

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