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Going to California: a look at the CA House races.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  July 27th, 2012 at 10:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Below is the general consensus of the competitive races in California’s House delegation. Said races are – to put it mildly – the result of one of the most comprehensive shakeups in state-level redistricting that we’ve seen in a while. Combined with a new jungle primary rule (basically: the top two vote getters in the primary advance to the general, regardless of party affiliation), the end result is, frankly, a headache and a half for people to forecast. Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook have done their usual thorough job, but trying to get one’s head around the new maps is not easy.

CD Republican Democrat CoH 2Q PVI Cook
CA-03 Kim Vann John Garamendi GOP GOP D+1 Li D
CA-07 Dan Lungren Ami Bera Dem Dem R+3 Toss-Up
CA-09 Ricky Gill Jerry McNerney Dem GOP D+2 Lean D
CA-10 Jeff Denham Jose Hernandez GOP GOP R+5 Lean R
CA-16 Brian Whelan Jim Costa Dem GOP D+2 Li D
CA-21 David Valadao John Hernandez GOP GOP R+3 Li R
CA-24 Abel Maldonado Lois Capps Dem Dem D+3 Lean D
CA-26 Tony Strickland Julia Brownley GOP GOP D+3 Toss-Up
CA-36 Mary Bono Mack Raul Ruiz GOP GOP R+3 Li R
CA-41 John Tavaglione Mark Takano GOP GOP D+3 Lean D
CA-47 Gary DeLong Alan Lowenthal GOP GOP D+5 Li D
CA-52 Brian Bilbray Scott Peters GOP GOP D+1 Toss-Up

Incumbents are in bold: bear in mind that this is incumbent to Congress, and usually not incumbent to the district). Also bear in mind that this list does not note the Democrats who will be facing other Democrats in the general election, the Republican who will be facing other another Republican in the general election, and – in the memorable case of CA-31 – the Republican who will be facing another Republican in a district that was supposed to be a Democratic one. Because I wasn’t joking when I said that this is a headache and a half.

So, what do we know?

Well… California Democrats haven’t really been having a great second quarter. Of the twelve races up there, the Democrats were outraised by their Republican opponents in ten of them (and have less cash on hand in eight of them). Given that only one of four Democratic incumbents had better fundraising quarters than their opponents, this seems fairly significant.

More to the point… I think that the Congressional delegation is going to end up being anything from +1 D to +2 R after 2012. More Democrats got stuck fighting each other in redrawn districts than did Republicans; the incumbents that retired largely handed off their districts to successors; and the CA-31 oopsie for the Democrats guarantees at least one Republican pickup. Looking at the chart above; trading an incumbent or two isn’t out the question, and I think that the toss-up races are just that; true toss-ups. It would in fact not surprise me to discover that for all the trouble that California went to ‘reform’ its primary system, the end result will be… not much in particular.

Which suggests that the original system wasn’t actually all that inferior to begin with.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

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COMMENTS

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  • Tbone

    nt

  • commonsenseobserver

    Nancy Pelosi can say goodbye to her job.

  • gekster

    Regardless of how many Republicans are elected,
    if she wins re-election, she keeps her job.

  • commonsenseobserver

    It’s hard to imagine the Democratic caucus continuing to support her. Harry Reid would have a better chance of staying as leader of the Senatorial Caucus.

  • toothpick

    If the Democrats do keep her as their House leader, this could represent a rare point of agreement between the parties. She is the best Democratic House leader in generations – for the Republicans. After all, next to the boy President, she is perhaps more responsible than anyone for the 87-seat flip to the R’s in 2010.

    So – I say more, more, more San Fran Nan! She is good for the Republican Party!

  • commonsenseobserver

    …

  • 6eorge Jetson
  • tnfriendofcoal101368

    In the past, one of the largest funders of Democrats in house races in California was Waxman. However, this cycle for the first time in his career, he is in a dog fight to save his own skin. As such, he is not contributing his war chest to other Democrats. Man, I hate that.

  • http://llphsecondrevolution.wordpress.com/ spoasteph97

    Very nice. Thanks for posting. I’m hoping for victories in California. The Democrats are boasting about their “likely” victories in California, but I think we will surprise them come November.

  • http://californiateapartypolitics.blogspot.com/ smokedaddy

    Tho I think we’re right to look at the Cook PVI first, I still think its interesting to compare it with the actual registration figures, Overall for California, the Dems have a 13 pt edge -43.39 to 30.24. Still, if we factor out the 23 Bay area and LA county districts where the Dems are naturally packed, this leaves 30 CDs where Repubs would mostly have the natural advantage under any kind of neutral redistricting. Of course, the deck was stacked on the so called citizens commission. The upshot is that the new districts are even more designed to maximize Dem representation but with less margin for error on their part.Witness CD 31. Lines are a little less snake like as well. . So, in a year like any of the last 3 elections, Dems will be way overrepresented. 33-20 at present I believe. Originally there were some projecting a pickup of 5 seats this year (which I never bought btw), I’m with Moe in figuring to about break even.
    I’d quibble with some of Cook’s odds though. Namely, CD 07 shud be lean R. CD 10 Li R CD 26 Lean R CD 41 Toss=up.