Gallup plays greatest practical joke on Democrats since Woodrow Wilson candidacy.
Look at this title and subtitle: great news for Democrats, right?
2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008
Composition of electorate by race, age, gender essentially the same
Yup, horrible news… wait a second. Notice what’s missing from that subtitle? As in, what rather important category? For an election? You know… political affiliation?
Yeah, well, there’s a reason for that.
In 2008, Gallup had the electorate in as being +10 Democrat (+12 Democrat, with leaners). Right now, they’re forecasting it as being +1 Republican (+3 Republican, with leaners). Which means that by the most important criterion of the Presidential election 2012 is not like 2008 at all: it’s like 2004 (+2 Republican/even, with leaners). Which means that the subtext of the title (“Democrats gonna win!”) is actually completely subverted by the implications of the data (“Democrats gonna lose!”).
I take some pleasure in being an aggravating so-and-so to the Online Left, but I have to say: this is epic trolling by Gallup. I would like to think that I could come up with something this contemptuously brilliant, but I am forced to admit that I am unsure that I could pull it off.
Moe Lane (crosspost)