Me, May 31st, 2014:
The Taliban will step up their kidnapping campaigns, because from their point of view said campaigns have been proven to work.
Time Magazine, June 5, 2014:
A Taliban commander close to the negotiations over the release of U.S. Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl told TIME Thursday that the deal made to secure Bergdahl’s release has made it more appealing for fighters to capture American soldiers and other high-value targets.
“It’s better to kidnap one person like Bergdahl than kidnapping hundreds of useless people,” the commander said, speaking by telephone on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the media. “It has encouraged our people. Now everybody will work hard to capture such an important bird.”
That last link via Ed Morrissey, who raises the legitimate point that this may just be the Taliban trying to troll us in real life. After all, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Taliban did not so much ‘kidnap’ Bose Bergdahl as they ‘had him over’ for five years. They’ve certainly not seen much success in capturing American military personnel since. Still, even if circumstances might make a heightened kidnapping regime more difficult than it looks it’s still true that the Taliban’s intent will be to try harder to capture US troops. Given how happy the current administration is to make deals on that, it’s hardly surprising that the Taliban would at least want to give it a shot..
Moe Lane (crosspost)
PS: Somebody tell me again how this administration is full of Machiavellian schemers who can flawlessly pull off highly baroque and insidious plans, or indeed get out of bed in the morning without being at high risk of tripping over imaginary dust bunnies. I do so enjoy a good round of mocking, incredulous laughter.
PPS: I am forced to admit that this was not a hard prediction to make.