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It’s a bit early in the season for Turnout will save us!, but the Democrats are determined to give it a try. Stu Rothenberg:
In the face of a challenging midterm environment, Democrats are relying on money and an expanding get-out-the-vote effort to avoid losing any more ground in the House. But what does that souped-up ground game look like?
So, what exactly is their strategy?
Democratic strategists believe a renewed focus on districts with high minority populations (including black and Hispanic voters, for example)…
Ah. Their strategy is to boost turnout in places where boosted turnout will not matter for 2014 Senate and House races.
…and that featured close races in 2012 are prime places to focus get-out-the-vote operations this time around. Democrats will try to mute the drop-off from a presidential election in Arizona’s 2nd District, California’s 26th District, Florida’s 2nd District, and Texas’ 23rd District, which all saw tight winning margins in 2012.
Of those four races, FL-02 is the only one currently occupied by a Republican, and it’s one of the five GOP controlled seats that are at serious risk of flipping this cycle (the Democrats have fifteen in a similar situation, which should tell you everything that you need to know). This is, in other words, a profoundly defensive strategy on the Democrats’ part; it is not one designed to regain seats. Frankly, if the Democrats are worried about places like TX-23 then they don’t really expect this strategy to actually work all that well.
I wonder how this will all look in a month?
Moe Lane (crosspost)