The race has been called for Donald Trump, but only by about 3 or 4 points.

  • Good news for Donald Trump: he won.
  • Bad news for Donald Trump: he was polling at 40% just prior to the debates, and is at around 35% now.
  • Bad news for Marco Rubio: he lost.
  • Good news for Marco Rubio: he broke through 30% and we're all expecting the final tally to tighten, thanks to the fact that Fairfax County is sloooow.

The conclusion that you have to make here is, unsurprisingly, that negative attacks work as a tactic, even if they didn't work well enough for a win here. So expect to see more of those over the next two weeks. Which is going to be nerve-wracking for everybody, of course.

Moe Lane

PS: You have my permission to yell at John Kasich. Please. Feel free.