In 2006, John Sarbanes was elected to Congress in the Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District. Sarbanes was a lawyer who had high name recognition as the son of former US Senator Paul Sarbanes. His 2006 opponent was Compass Marketting CEO John White, who received over 33% of the vote. In 2008, in a poor year for Republicans, Sarbanes won reelection against an insurance broker with no name recognition and no website. His opponent still received over 30% of the vote. In a year where Republicans are angry and ready to actively get out the vote and fight for Congress the GOP needs a solid candidate to beat Sarbanes. I feel that Susan Schwab may be that candidate.

Susan Schwab served as US Trade Representative from 2006 until 2009. She’s a strong proponent of free trade and benefits from having nationwide name recognition. Prior to her tenure as US Trade Representative, Schwab was the President and CEO of the University System of Maryland Foundation from 2003 to 2006 and Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, College Park from 1995 to 2003. This statewide experience shows her commitment to the state of Maryland through her support.

Schwab’s elected politics experience is not extensive. Schwab worked in throughout the 1980s as trade policy specialist and then legislative director for former Senator John C. Danforth.

She’s motivated to work for solutions equitable to all sides involved - as seen by her handling of the US-Canada Softwood Lumber Dispute. She’s got a sense of humor, as seen in her telling Charlie Rangel on Valentine’s Day that she’d be his Valentine while testifying before Congress. She’s a free trade dynamo who fought hard for bipartisan free trade deals.

Schwab is highly intelligent and motivated. Her experiences and story could make her a compelling candidate, especially in a year where the economy is of grave importance. Her experiences in international trade and business experience make her a perfect candidate to discuss economic issues. I feel that this current member of the FedEx board of Directors could be a great candidate for the NRCC to seek out.

Cross posted at Old Line Elephant

For New York’s 20th District, a solid candidate is needed to recapture this formally Republican seat. In 2009 during the special election, the GOP selected the now former Assembly Minority Leader. I’m suggesting a different former Assembly Minority Leader - John Faso.

Faso served in the NYS Assembly from 1987 until 2002, serving as Minority leader, serving from 1998 to 2002. In 1994, he considered a bid for New York State Comptroller, but internal Conservative Party / NYS GOP politics led to the selection of Herbert London as the Comptroller nominee. In 2002, Faso ran for New York State Comptroller, resigning as Minority Leader in order to run. He lost to the incumbent New York City Comptroller, Alan Hevesi by approximately 3%.

In 2006, Faso ran an insurgent campaign for Governor and beat out William Weld at the NYS convention. Faso was defeated by a large margin against the pretty much unstoppable (at the time) Eliot Spitzer. Yet, his conservatism was respected by the CPNYS and GOP faithful. In 2009, he considered a bid for NY-20 in the special election to replace Gillibrand. He was actually endorsed by the Greene County committee - but the nomination went to Tedisco instead.

In 2008, Faso became one of the founding members of New Yorkers for Growth, a fiscally conservative NY PAC focusing on state issues and working to elect fiscally conservative officials. Faso recently wrote an editorial on the fiscal problems of New York State for NY for Growth.

Faso is a hypercompetent fiscal conservative who is a known quantity in the 20th District, has experience running against all manner of opponents, actually lives in the district, and has an unquestionable fiscal conservative credentials. While Faso would be an excellent Comptroller candidate, which he’s reportedly leaning towards, a Congressional bid in NY-20 would be great.

Crossposted at Old Line Elephant

Former Bush advisor and notorious conservative electioneer Karl Rove came up with his list of the top 7 most influential conservatives in these United States for Forbes magazine. I disagree partially with his list. Here’s his list in order - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Minority Leader John Boehner, Senate Minority Whip John Kyl, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, Representative Paul Ryan, Heritage Foundation President Edwin Feulner, Columnist Charles Krauthammer. The problem with much of this list is that it reads more like a list of most influential Republicans.

As a thought project - I decided to develop my own list of the key players in the modern conservative movement in these United States. As I sat and thought about it - I came up with the following people:

1. Jim DeMint - US Senator from South Carolina and Chairman of the Republican Steering Committee, DeMint is a former member of the House and one fo the biggest voices for conservatism in the US Senate. He has been quick to buck the system and endorse outsider candidates for US Senate and the House of Representatives including Pat Toomey (PA) before Specter switched parties, Doug Hoffman (NY-23), Marco Rubio (FL), and Chuck DeVore (CA). He is influential in the conservative grass roots movement and a force to be reckoned with.

2. Chris Chocola - This should perhaps be the Club for Growth as an organization, but the current Club for Growth President has helped continue to make the Club for Growth the premier alternative to the NRSC / NRCC to actively support conservative candidates. Expect the CfG to be a key player in the 2010 elections.

3. Paul Ryan - Rove had Ryan at 5, I put him at 3 due to his legislative presence and prowess. Ryan is an articulate, young Republican who has been at the forefront of producing insightful and innovative, conservative legislation. I feel Ryan will be a key player in the future of the Republican Party and in conservatism in America.

4. Erick Erickson - The Editor-in-chief of RedState.com is one of the most influential members of the online right. His early support of Doug Hoffman and fundraising pushes helped to bring his name to the front of the online right while building a competitive war chest for the relatively unknown CPA. Erickson has worked hard at creating a powerful right-leaning online community and it has proven to be an effective communication tool and election tool.

5. Rush Limbaugh - There are many things you can say about Rush Limbaugh - that he bates the left, that he’s purposely over the top - he is an influential voice in the right’s critique of our President. He will continue to be an active voice as he was in the 90s while Clinton was in office. A man who has such an active support base and continues to be on the air on hundreds upon hundreds of stations across the nation has no choice but to be influential.

6. Ron Paul - Representative Ron Paul may be a lowly member of Congress, but his libertarian thoughts and his support base run deep. He has created a vast network of supporters who are helping to build up fiscally conservative to libertarian candidates nationwide. I would go as far as to say that the Ron Paul Revolutionaries were some of the forerunners to the “Tea Party” movement.

7. Charles Krauthammer - I agree with Rove here. Krauthammer is a perfect spokesman in the written form and I feel that his influence on conservative thought can only increase during Obama’s Presidency.

Thoughts welcome.

Cross posted at Old Line Elephant

UPDATE: So Rove’s list is most powerful conservatives - as such, I agree with his list a little more. But, nonetheless, I like my influential conservative lists.

With the 2009 special election now past, Doug Hoffman has lost. But, it is quite an accomplishment for an unknown CPA to go from polling at 16% to garnering 45% of the popular vote on a third party ballot line. This is a big accomplishment in and of itself. Hoffman is a hero to many conservatives who saw this as a fight that needed to be fought - win or lose, it was worth the fight.

But what will become of our conservative hero. He has lost a battle - but the war for conservative principles is far from over. In 2010, the Republican Party will need a conservative candidate for NY-23. Perhaps that candidate will be Doug Hoffman, but I have a suggestion that may be even better suited to his personal experiences - draft Doug Hoffman for Comptroller.

Doug Hoffman is a businessman and accountant. He received his MBA from the University of Connecticut in 1976 and became a CPA in 1977. An Army Reserve / National Guard veteran, Hoffman served as Controller for the Lake Placid Olympic Organizing Committee for the 1980 Winter Olympics. He is currently a small business owner and is a managing partner of the Dragon Benware Crowley & Co., P.C. accounting firm. The bulk of his background is in business and finance.

New York State’s Comptroller serves as the state’s financial auditor and oversees New York’s retirement system. Hoffman’s extensive experience as an accountant, as controller for the Lake Placid Olympic Organizing Committee, and his business sense make him a highly qualified candidate for the role. His outsider status and unquestionable fiscally conservative credentials could make him the perfect choice for the GOP in 2010.

In 2006, the GOP in New York had an opportunity to take the comptroller against a corrupt incumbent. Even the New York Times endorsed the Republican candidate against an incumbent who was literally stealing from New York State. After his forced removal from office, Governor Spitzer set up a committee of former State and NYC Comptrollers to interview potential candidates in a public forum to replace the corrupt incumbent. They came up with a list of 3 qualified candidates for the position. Instead, the State Legislature ignored this list and selected an Assemblyman (Dede Scozzafava, broke rank with Assembly Republicans to vote for him).

New York deserves an independent, fiscally conservative Comptroller who will audit the budget and offer active criticism of state waste. They currently have an okay Comptroller who was hand selected by NYS legislature from among their own. Doug Hoffman would offer a start contrast to the incumbent. He already has a superb credentials and new found nationwide name recognition.

Let’s try to draft Hoffman for Comptroller. New York needs him.

Cross posted at Old Line Elephant

In 2008, incumbent moderate Republican Congressman Wayne Gilchrest lost in the primary to conservative State Senator Andy Harris. Gilchrest had been serving in Congress since 1991 and was one of 2 remaining Republican Congressmen from Maryland.

This upset was apparently too much for Gilchrest to handle. Instead of gracefully losing and endorsing the Republican or just staying out of the election - Gilchrest endorsed the Democratic candidate Frank Kratovil. In fact, he was in campaign advertisements for Kratovil actively camapigning against the very Republican establishment which had supported him for nearly 2 decades.

Why did Gilchrest endorse Kratovil? Ideologically and politically he was more in line with Harris. The real reason? Sour grapes.

He could not bear to endorse the very person who had cost him his House seat, so instead he rallied against Harris. Even if this meant going against the very party that had supported him and making Harris’ point - that Gilchrest was too liberal for this district. Scozzafava did the same thing.

In this election, Dede Scozzafava was attacked on the right by Doug Hoffman. Hoffman ran a strong campaign with bigtime fundraising from national conservative supporters, much like Harris. Scozzafava was the crowned, GOP candidate in the race just as incumbent Gilchrest was in MD-01. Hoffman and Harris were both the Club for Growth preferred conservative candidate. Each had national movement conservative support. Each forced out the selected Republican candidate and in each case, this Republican candidate proved that movement conservatives were right - they were too liberal for the district and endorsed the Democratic nominee.

Scozzafava falls into a long line of self-serving, self-proclaimed Republican “moderates” who care not about party, care not about principle - care only about themselves and about getting even.

Cross posted at Old Line Elephant

In the 2006 New York State gubernatorial election - an interesting thing happened. Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld was running against former New York State Assembly Minority Leader John Faso for the Republican nomination. Weld had his own ballot line separate from the GOP (Libertarian). He had a Lieutenant Governor nominee lined up. He was a former Governor and had all the experience necessary to be Governor. Then came the 2006 NY GOP Convention.

At the convention, Faso won the the nomination. Weld was still within his right to primary him. He still had some high level support within the GOP and the all important second ballot line. But, he didn’t. Why? For the good of the party.

In 2008, for that same reason, Mitt Romney dropped his Presidential bid and endorsed John McCain. Romney still had a path to victory - it was slim, but plausible. He opted instead to drop his bid and help rally his supporters to John McCain.

This begs the question - when does it become the responsibility of a candidate to drop their bid for office “for the good of the party?”

In the case of Weld v. Faso, it made sense. The Republican Party was up against a monster in New York State politics in Eliot Spitzer. Before his fall from grace, Spitzer was a force to be reckoned with and appeared unbeatable. Weld’s campaign did not add anything significant. A primary would divide the party unneccesarily when they needed to unite against a strong opponent in a Democratic year. The primary would not remarkably change the discussion - both of them would talk about taxes and spending while ignoring social issues; both would attack Spitzer as a poor bipartisan leader; both would have run a similar general election campaign. In the end, swapping out Weld for Faso would not have changed the course of the campaign enough. There was no case for a primary and for the sake of party unity - his step aside made sense.

The end of Romney’s bid served the same purpose. Polling was showing Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama strong against any Republican candidate. The path for victory for Romney was difficult, but doable. Yet, McCain had momentum, stronger nationwide favoribility ratings, and an easier path to the nomination. Romney’s general election campaign could have been remarkably different than McCain’s - but at that point in time, Romney had no reason to continue. He was not an ideological opponent of McCain; he did not offer a compellingly different general election strategy; and his continued presence only served to drain and slow down from the eventual nominee. For the good of the party and for the good of John McCain’s campaign - it made sense for Romney to step aside.

This brings me to the election that I can not seem to ignore - NY-23. Instead of a primary, we have a general election with two Republican candidates. Scozzafava and Hoffman would both caucus with the GOP if elected. Unlike a primary, the victor of the two of them does not have a few months to rally against the Democratic nominee. They are running simultaneously against the Democrat.

Supporters of Scozzafava have throughout the campaign called on Hoffman to drop out for the good of the party and to preserve the seat for the GOP. Yet, this is a case where the primary or continued campaign by Hoffman is important. Hoffman has a different message than Scozzafava - he is championing fiscal and social conservatism. His fiscally conservative focus has resonated in the district and recent Research 20000 polling shows Hoffman tied with the Democratic nominee…with Scozzafava polling at 21%. Hoffman is leading amongst independents and Republicans.

Now this begs the question - who’s presence in this race is really hurting the party’s chances of successfully retaining this seat? Who’s presence in the campaign does not add much to the discussion? Who’s presence in this campaign is only serving to help prevent the GOP from maintaining this Congressional seat? Perhaps it is Scozzafava should realize that, for the good of the party, the ending of her campaign makes more sense.

Cross posted at Old Line Elephant

A new poll of 300 likely voters conducted by Basswood Research for the Club for Growth shows that Doug Hoffman is currently leading in the NY-23 Special Election. The results? Hoffman 31.3%, Owens at 27.0%, and Scozzafava at 19.7%.

This helps to emphasize my theory that it is not Hoffman who is the spoiler, but Scozzafava. According to the poll, Hoffman is leading amongst Independents and Republicans. All Scozzafava’s continued inclusion in the race serves to do is siphon votes away from the Conservative candidate who, if elected, will caucus with the GOP. As Basswood pollster Jon Lerner said, “Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava’s support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week.”

I see no benefit in the GOP continuing to spend any money on Scozzafava. They should cut their losses now and allow Hoffman the freedom to continue his bid for Congress unfettered and unattacked by the party he wishes to caucus with. If you want to help the cause - donate to Doug Hoffman to help him in this final stretch.

Cross posted at Old Line Elephant

UPDATE: The Club for Growth posted the cross-tabs for their poll here. Party breakdown is 48.3% GOP, 36.0% Democrat, 13.3% Independent. Without leaners it’s Hoffman 28.3%, Owens 23.7%, and Scozzafava 18.0%.

One of the early arguments against Doug Hoffman’s campaign was that he would serve as a spoiler and ruin the chances of the GOP from retaining this Congressional seat. That’s one of the big arguments that Dede Scozzafava and her establishment supporters are still using against Hoffman. Recent polling data shows that not to be the case.

Hoffman has held his own and improved his standing in the past two weeks amongst every single group of voters and is currently leading amongst independent voters and the support of 27% of Republican voters. This is the case as Hoffman remains the least recognized of the three candidates. As he continues to build his campaign, increase the number of campaign offices, and begin to advertise on TV - Hoffman’s name recognition will increase and his support base will only improve.

This begs the question - who’s really the spoiler. Hoffman has been boosting his name recognition, strengthening his ground game, and is leading amongst Independent voters. Thursday will show if his fundraising prowess is better than Scozzafava’s - but insiders indicate that Scozzafava’s fundraising has been weak at best. Scozzafava has been losing steam and losing support amongst voters as they continue to get to know her. Her unfavorables went up 12% in the past two weeks and 28% of voters feel that after viewing Scozzafava commercials they are less likely to vote for her, that’s over a quarter of the electorate feeling less inclined to vote for her based on her ads.

So, who is spoiling this race for whom? Both Scozzafava and Hoffman would caucus with the GOP in Congress and currently Hoffman has the most momentum, which was acknowledged by the independent pollster to be even greater than the Democratic candidate’s. With Scozzafava’s approval and polling numbers dropping, it appears that Scozzafava may be spoiler, not Hoffman.

Cross posted at Old Line Elephant

From the diaries by Erick

On October 3, 2009, Dede Scozzafava was interviewed following an event in Saranac Lake. At this event, Scozzafava said that she would not sign the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge for a confusing reason. Here’s a quote from the article -

Scozzafava said she won’t sign the pledge because the income tax is just one form of tax, and that more people could be impacted if, for example, you refuse to increase income taxes under any circumstances but raise other taxes or fees instead.

“When people say they’ll never vote for taxes - those are people who have never been there,” [Assemblywoman and Scozzafava supporter] Duprey said.

In the past 2 weeks, her Conservative opponent and Protection Pledge signer Doug Hoffman has gained quite a bit of ground. In those two weeks, Scozzafava has changed her mind and decided to sign this taxpayer pledge. The associated press release states that this provides a “…clear indication of where Hoffman and Scozzafava stand on taxes.” I disagree on this statement.

Read More →

Doug Hoffman has the opportunity to do something amazing in far upstate New York. He has the chance to become the first member of the Conservative Party of New York elected to the House of Representatives. He would be the second person from that party elected to Congress, following James Buckley’s election in 1970. He has the chance to lead the charge for conservatives large C and small c into 2010.

Doug Hoffman is currently polling at 23% according to independent polling data collected by Siena college. This is 7% higher than he was polling two weeks ago. He also has the lowest name recognition in the race with 63% of voters in the 23rd District do not knowing enough about Hoffman. Positive campaigning is key to boost name recognition. Hoffman can continue to use that to define himself with positive campaigning. His new ad is a great step forward - continuing this path will get his message out there.

Hoffman is a unique candidate in that he comes from entirely outside of the political realm. He’s an accountant and a successful small business owner. He is not a lawyer or a political scientist or a currently sitting politician. Hoffman is just a local businessman / accountant who was sick of the current political scene. After losing the Republican nomination behind closed doors to a woman who is on the record saying that she supports Card Check and the stimulus package, Hoffman turned to the Conservative Party of New York. For those who do not know, due to New York’s fusion electoral system - candidates are able to be cross-endorsed by multiple parties. Republicans candidates actively seek the Conservative line and no Republican has been elected Governor without that line since its inception. The Conservative Party serves to check Republicans, setting up road blocks in their victory path if they are not sufficiently conservative.

With surging fiscal conservatism amongst independents, Hoffman has an opportunity to win on fiscally conservative values. As a small businessman, Hoffman is on the front lines helping create jobs and has seen firsthand the problems of government intervention. As an accountant, Hoffman understands the need for keeping any business, including our government, lean through minimizing waste. As a conservative outsider, he supports term limits to prevent creating career politicians.

Conservatives nationwide have an opportunity with Doug Hoffman. We have the chance to help elect a genuine movement conservative. Doug Hoffman is exactly the type of conservative we need in Congress. As a former New Yorker and former member of the Conservative Party, I’m proud to of him and the choice of the party’s endorsement.