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Tim Burns consolidates his lead

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  May 3rd, 2010 at 11:28 PM  | 

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It’s late in the day but I know this race is drawing plenty of interest, so here goes.

Daily Kos and Research 2000 hit the PA-12 Special Election. This makes two consecutive polls from sources that lean toward the Democrats. But do Republicans have reason to complain?


Back on April 21 PPP had Burns barely ahead, but in this now slightly stale poll from the 26th, Burns has an even bigger lead. 46-40 (MoE 4), for a solid 77% lead probability.

Republicans have longed for this seat for years, and after years of Jack Murtha staying in charge, a 3/4 chance at the seat must sound just fine.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • Doc Holliday

    and I really, really want a win. But at the same time I have this feeling of anger towards PA 12, it is like they had their chance at redemption and passed.

  • disintelligentsia

    It appears that they simply poll all registered voters and then impose a quota on each political affiliation according to the percentage registered with each group. It’s well known that Republicans as a group are more likely to vote and the Rasmussen polls acknowledge this – that’s why they are more accurate. As good as the Kos poll is for Burns, the actual numbers are likely even more favorable – by 5 to 6 percentage points. I’d guess Burns is at 51 or 52 and Critz may be as low as 35.

  • Adjoran

    But not only do Republicans turn out at a higher rate generally, the measured “level of enthusiasm” in several polls this year shows Republican voters twice as excited about the election as Democrats.

    So relying upon registration levels to set the sample almost guarantees a Democratic bias in the result – especially in a midterm election after so many new black and young voters registered to vote for Obama. Not only will The One not be on the ballot, but those demographic categories have histories of sharply lower turnout rates in off-year elections.

    Still, Murtha held the seat so long and so easily . . . but then he was a genuine war hero before he turned professional criminal.

    I won’t believe it until I see it, but if I see it I am going to celebrate!

  • ktsub

    The only part is the number of Dems that will show up for the primary, without much a GOP primary, its difficult to judge the turnout.

    The outright lies by the Critz campaign have been handled well by Burns, who has run a perfect campaign. If we loose this one, its going to be a serious deflation.

    How Critz has run, makes me think he knows he behind, but the serious D turnout, will make for close final tally.