The likelihood is that people who are on the far right would vote against McCain no matter who runs. The election will be decided by conservative leaning libertarians and the “moderates” in the AZ Republican Party. The latter two categories of people are generally willing to tolerate McCain and they hate the sight and sound of JD. That’s why he’s a former talk radio host running for Senate and not the Congressman from CD05 running for Senate.

it should be pretty instructive that there are three major Tea Party organizations in Arizona: Maricopa County (Phoenix), Pima County (Tucson) and Flagstaff (basically the northern tier of the State) and NONE of them will endorse Hayworth. They are all sitting out the primary.

In addition, every one of the Republican members of the Arizona Congressional Delegation – arguably THE most conservative group in the US House – has endorsed McCain. That includes Shadegg who’s retiring and has nothing to lose or gain. Every one of these guys served with Hayworth and knows him very, very well.

BECAUSE if elected we’d have to put up with the da** fool for probably three or four terms. As it is, we can make this McCain’s last term and if we do it right, we can have a conservative groomed to run in six years. Think Shadegg, Flake, or one of the new candidates running for House who have a great chance to win. That way we get a real, thoughtful, intelligent, movement conservative for three or four terms instead of the buffoon.

I doubt McCain will do much in the way of damage this time around because it appears that most of his effort goes toward squabbling with BO. And, FWIW, BO will be hell to beat in ’12 barring a MAJOR attack on US soil and a depression. In which case he’ll be busy anyway.

The “rift” in Arizona is NOT McCain supporters v Hayworth supporters. For the most part you could hold a meeting of “Hayworth supporters” – those who support Hayworth in the abstract – in a small closet. The people who will be voting for JD are people who simply hate McCain more than JD and are willing to waste a vote to “make a statement”. In point of fact, JD is about as popular in Maricopa County (where over half the voters reside) as clap in a convent.

I don’t know who CW “hangs out with”, but I would guess he’s reflecting the opinions he hears among very conservative PCs and people at tea parties. I don’t question him one bit, but that group is not reflective of Arizona voters, even AZ Republican primary voters. Remember, this is a statewide election. The people who live in MC don’t like JD personally, and once you leave the confines of MC, they hate him. Probably the only politician with statewide name recognition who is hated more than JD is Joe Arpaio and Joe endorsed JD. It won’t help JD in Pima County (Tucson) or in the north from Prescott to Flagstaff.

I’ve never said McCain was “more dangerous” than the ME girls. I have repeatedly gone out of my way to say I really don’t have a problem with them. They are the perfect “moderate” Republicans. First, name a more conservative candidate who can win in ME. I’ve been trying to get that answered for a couple of years and all I get is blank stares. Second, neither of them is in anything even remotely representing a “leadership” position in the Senate or on any issue. While they may vote against “us” with some regularity, the only real vote of substance was TARP, and I’m convinced they only voted for that because Specter had already announced and was going to take pretty much all the heat. Keep in mind that both of them have voted “party line” against BO’s agenda. With respect to voting records, all I can tell you is that JD never met a spending bill he didn’t like and the amount of legislation he was active in writing/promoting that would downsize government is about the same as McCain’s – zero.

And if Arpaio was so popular why oh who has he consistently refused to run for Governor? Because he’d get about the same 35% or so that JD’s gonna get. Ah, he might get 45 because he’d get a good chunk of the Sun City vote that he’s bought off for a decade with the Posse. But he’d get creamed.

somebody is going to show up and post something about this subject that is based on fact or at least on a reasoned and detailed set of assumptions that have been clearly laid out.

None of you whiners are capable of doing that. You first among them. I have laid out, in detail, why I think JD will get swamped in the primary. Included in the discussion has been all my assumptions about demographics and Arizona electoral history with my assumptions about the players. None of you pathetic, slobbering sycophants has yet to make an actual argument that posits why I could be wrong. My comments and conclusions have been supported by virtually all of the Arizona residents who post here.

To his great credit, my friend Cold Warrior has, on several occasions, dropped off some anecdotal discussion with PCs and some tea party attendees. I have never questioned the information or it’s specific veracity, but it doesn’t – and CW never said it did – represent the demographic view of the state. Additionally, about the only real “argument” we’ve had is over McCain’s margin of victory.

Now then, with respect to the specific comment about Arpaio that I called Dean on, yes he is routinely the “most popular” elected official in Arizona. Which translates in today’s environment into nothing. He gets high ratings in generic polling like that because of his name recognition. Put him into a situation where were dealing with specifics related to a broad range of issues and he’s not so popular. His popularity hasn’t changed much in the last ten years and he routinely refuses to run for Governor. Four years ago Janet would have massacred him. This year he would probably win the primary, simply because Brewer is a disaster – we’ll see how long she can ride the 1070 wave – and the guys running against her are more or less unknown. I doubt he could beat Goddard, who even though he’s a Dem has a reasonable record as a law and order guy as AG. The key to the Gov’s race is how 1070 is handled since it will barely be law by the primary.

Right now, it’s McCain in a walk in the primary and the general. Three House seats are up for grabs and we’ve got a good shot at all of those. The Governor’s race is a toss up.

Simcox’ endorsement is worth zero net votes to JD. Once he dropped out none of his supporters were going to vote for McCain. They’d leave the US Senator box blank first. Or write in Satan.

It’s early on Saturday and I’m not caffeinated so I have to admit that I have no clue what you’re talking about with the “MM phenomenon”. Elaborate please?

AZ is no different than the other 56 states. All of them like seniority in all their elected officials. And especially Senators.

I think the thing that makes upending a sitting senator so difficult is finding someone who has name recognition AND who has a hint of credibility to run. “The Devil You Know” and all that. And on that note, I think I might like to discuss what Utah does with their nominations at the party level. They seem to be on the verge of taking out an icon, we should know more by the end of the day today. I haven’t put much thought into their system, but it would certainly be an interesting topic for discussion. After the UT race is settled, of course.

Oh, and any chance you’ve got somebody to run against you-know-who?

JD Hayworth is no Rubio, he’s no Toomey and he’s no Scott Brown. Not even close.

And McCain is no Specter, no Martha Coakley and no Charlie Crist.

Not even a good try.

Toomey was a credible candidate against Specter six years ago and would have taken him out in the primary if GWB and Specter’s Republican colleague hadn’t endorsed him and campaigned actively for him against Toomey. Toomey also was a conservative, incumbent Congressman from a slightly D district with a record of winning.

Scott Brown was a well known, well liked, very likable candidate with a solid (not a solid conservative, just a solid) legislative record who had the good fortune to run against the worst candidate to ever run for US Senate any where at any time.

Rubio is well known, well liked, and has a good conservative record in the state legislature. He had the luxury of being sort of a stealth candidate for a while and built up a head of steam against a guy who has been out front supporting BO’s agenda.

JD is very well known in AZ. He’s not liked. He got tossed from a pretty safe R seat in CD05 because people were tired of seeing him, listening to him whine and he didn’t accomplish much of anything, unless you count air time on Fox News. He’s been running a fairly unsuccessful talk radio show in Phoenix since then. McCain isn’t taking any challenge lightly and has gobs of money and an easy target. The Arizona media hates JD with a passion. He has none of the other candidate’s good points nor any of their advantages.

And unfortunately I don’t see us getting a LGov any time soon.

The Democrats have two candidates (the second one entered the race today). Both make Che Gueverra look like a RS frontpager. I will be utterly shocked if either got 35% in the general and I wouldn’t be surprised if McCain got upwards of 90%.

Some perspective on McCain in the Generals…

1986 – First run for Senate, he was a Critter. Won by 20.

1992 – Got 56% in a three way race that included former Gov Mecham who got 11. Count those 11 for McCain, none of those folk would have voted for any Dem.

1998 – 69/28. I can’t remember if he even bothered to campaign.

2004 – He got 77%. He was a much more vocal “maverick” then, he’d just gotten CFR slammed through.

In November, a live boy AND a dead girl might get McCain below 60, but not by much.

elect a real quality candidate in six years. And frankly, I think McCain will probably do a much better job fighting BO in DC than JD ever could.

He’s not fighting for his life either If there’s a “fight” it’s just to see how big the primary margin will be. I still think 20 is about right, but as I’ve said before that’s just my gut.

And I don’t think it matters whether McCain retires in six or not, he’s beatable. Just not by JD.

There are currently two guys who would have had a real shot at beating McCain. Shadegg and Flake. In three or four years we could have as many as five credible candidates. The key will be to focus on beating McCain and groom somebody.

After this election, I’ll be surprised if JD even stays in AZ.

Then draw conclusions. That’s how it’s done. You can take any position you want to on any subject or candidate and have a great discussion.

However, neither you nor houstoneagle or deano have come to terms with that. Until you do, you can expect to get smacked around for parading your stupidity and incompetence.

Specifically, in your case, when you can manage to post on topics you actually know something about you do reasonably well. Your problem Scope is that you seem to think you know a whole lot about most things and that your opinion will pass for facts. You don’t and it won’t.