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How does Sestak match up against Toomey?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  May 11th, 2010 at 02:30 PM  | 

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Sestak Toomey

Thanks to Arlen Specter’s collapse, it’s now more than academic to see how Joe Sestak matches up against Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate rate. So, on to Rasmussen’s poll from the 6th.

In short, this is a race we’ll all be watching from now to November. Toomey at this point routs Specter, but nobody cares anymore. Sestak though is consolidating support among Democrats and has caught right up to Toomey. Toomey leads 42-40 (MoE 4.5), for a sliver of an advantage with a 58% lead probability.

Democrats seem to be making a smart choice as with Sestak they have much better chances of holding onto this seat, one Republicans badly need for any chance at a Senate majority after this election.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • Kyle-MI

    In other parts of the poll, 47% disapprove of Obama’s job performance with 39% strongly disapproving. 50% approve of Obama’s performance but only 26% strongly approve.

    53% favor a bill repealing Obama care with 44% strongly favoring it.

    58% favor legislation similar to the AZ immigration law.

    Toomey and Sestak are virtually tied on favorable and unfavorable ratings.

    Toomey should be able to resonate with the voters on a number of issues and should be able to drive up Sestak’s unfavorable rating also on those issues.

  • Adjoran

    may come in the allegation HE made that he was offered a position in the Administration to drop his challenge of Specter. Such an inducement in a federal election is illegal, of course, and could help drive a wedge between Sestak and the national Dems whose first allegiance is to Comrade Obama.

    Make the election about who offered Sestak the bribe and why he won’t say, a referendum on Democratic corruption.

  • Flagstaff

    “6* Do you favor or oppose legislation that authorizes local police to stop and verify the immigration status of anyone they suspect of being an illegal immigrant?”

    58% Favor
    32% Oppose
    10% Not sure

    What I find interesting about this is that the question postulates a much more draconian law than what has passed in Arizona. In AZ, no “stop and verify” situation is allowed, in fact, it’s prohibited. Only the “verify” part is allowed, and that only after contact is made regarding a different violation.

    So the public is much more favorable towards anti-illegal intrusions laws than the media is letting on.

  • earlgrey

    If they are national polls than I am shocked to see his approval rating so high.

  • IJB

    Once the enthusiasm from the Primary victory wanes, everyone is back to the same basic issue – A vote for Sestak is a vote for the Obama agenda: do you support the Obama agenda, (PA) voter?!

    Once the race in PA, and indeed in OH (and FL), are put in those terms, I fully expect the numbers for the various Dem candidates to seriously deflate.

    Try as they might, there is *NO* way for about 99% of the Democrats running in 2010 to run away from Obama/Reid/Pelosi. And that’s gonna absolutely *kill* them in the Fall…

  • WarEagle01

    as soon he wins the primary, he’ll go on an insult tour. Just travel around the state calling Pennsylvanians racists, or hick clingy religious fanatics with guns. That seems to be a winning strategy for Democrats in PA. Apparently, those people up there love them some insults.

  • romeg

    and remind the voters, minute-by-minute, that a vote for Sestak is a vote for the Socialist Obama Agenda.

    I recall James Carville once describing PA as being Democrat in the East and West and “Alabama in between”.

    Perhaps therein lies our best opportunity.

  • yoyo

    Sestak looks like Dan Rather, only younger and dorkier.

    …Just sayin’.

    And this is the state that elected Ed, Arlen, Jack, and Obama.

    Again, just sayin’.

    Of those two statements, today, which is funnier.

    GO TOOMEY!

  • Kyle-MI

    n/t

  • Kyle-MI

    Obama is still getting 50% job approval in PA, although it is soft. Pelosi and Reid are probably another matter, IMO. On the other hand, running against some of Obama’s issues will probably work. I don’t think cap and trade would be popular in PA coal country.

  • cabanon

    but there seems to be more of an anti-incumbent movement underway in the country rather than just an anti-democrat movement which makes for a more volatile election season.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Republican incumbents are generally doing fine, unlike Democrat incumbents who are in trouble in surprising places.

  • http://www.pawatercooler.com Redfox

    I was shocked by the poll results, too, but there are some Pennsylvania-specific things going on that explain a lot this, I think. I live in PA and I can tell you that Sestak and Specter are all over the airwaves. Their respective campaigns are going at with all the stops pulled out. Toomey, on the other hand, hasn’t even begun campaigning. So what you have is a poll pitting someone who people have heard something about and has significant buzz around his campaign against someone who is a virtual unknown.

    I tend to agree that Sestak is going to get a bump after the primary if he wins, but that his numbers will settle down after that.

    Then again, you can never rule out Specter. We missed sending him home in 2004 by 12,000 votes.

  • TxCon

    the same way Crist is doing and Bennett may do. (sarcasm)

  • mjdzfun

    http://www.militarycorruption.com/mullen.htm

    The very first thing Adm Mike Mullens did after he was named CNO was to fire Joe Sestak. Telling.

  • cabanon
  • JSobieski

    Bennett didn’t get booted as part of a “throw them all out” theme. He was got bumped for government spending, spending, and more spending.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Or are you just being stupid?

    Bennett didn’t lose a general election.

    Further, one guy doesn’t make a national trend.

  • cabanon

    but neither did Specter.He most likely won’t make it to the general election as he’s being ousted for a more liberaloption, the same as Bennett being ousted for more conservative options. Both Bennett and Specter are incumbents.

    Now Toomey would handily beat Specter 50-38, I think the last poll was, but only gets the slim 42 – 40 against Sestak. I think that doesn’t show anti-democrat sentiment, it shows anti-incumbent sentiment.

  • IJB
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Bennett would have won the general if he’d won the primary.

    Specter’s just a loser who’s managed to turn both parties against him.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    We all know Bridgewater’s the stalking horse for everything Bennett stands for, and he nearly got the nomination without the primary.

  • cabanon

    not because people hate Specter, they’re comparing Sestak to Toomey.

    Also look at North Carolina’s race, Burr has gone from 50-32 in April to 48 – 40 against Marshall in less than a month. Now of course you have Boxer in tough position and Reid is toast but I still think calling this just anti-democrat sentiment is over simplified. People don’t like what Washington is doing and they are looking at all incumbents as possible faults.

  • spainishirish

    general election campaign against Sestak than see Mr. Scottish Law remain viable. To Toomey’s credit he has said nearly the same thing even though it means a possibly tougher race for him. Some people just need to go, and Specter vies for the top of that list.

  • Richard Mullins
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    When the Ds aren’t *conservatively* running -20 in the House and -3 in the Senate, I’ll give your theory a thought.

    Until then, it’s just unsupported by the data, of which anecdote is not a singular.

  • cabanon

    National approval/disapproval numbers don’t decide local elections. Its why Congress overall almost always has high disapproval numbers but the majority of them keep getting reelected.

    Making the assumption that there is this large anti-democrat sediment that will see us through til November is risky and not reliable.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m talking about -3 seats in the Senate and -20 seats in the House, based on individual seat ratings by the Cook Political Report.

    These are specific seats, and the number of Democrats at risk is VASTLY disproportionate to the size of their majorities.

    Democrats are the problem, not just any old incumbents. Sorry to disappoint. Well no, not really. Elected Democrats are scum and they have it coming at lot worse than they’ll get.

  • cabanon

    approval/disapproval numbers which didn’t seem accurate so that makes sense.

    I agree Democrats are the problem and I believe they are not very popular right now but I don’t think it is the only motivating factor for voters. I still think making the assumption that there is this large anti-democrat sediment that will see us through til November is risky. Florida is a toss up now, NC will be classified a toss up next and Vitter is going to have problems once the real campaigning starts. Its too early to sit back til November thats all.