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Primary Eve in Pennsylvania

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  May 17th, 2010 at 01:10 PM  | 

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One more day until the big primary election in Pennsylvania, and two big races to watch. Who replaces Jack Murtha? Who faces Pat Toomey in November?

Let’s dig in.

Two polls on the Senate Primary for the Democrats. Qunnipiac University out today shows Sestak slightly ahead at 42-41 (MoE 3.2), and Muhlenberg/Morning Call from yesterday reads a 44-44 tie. If any race is too close to call, this is it.

Not that the special election isn’t trying to match it. PPP gives Tim Burns the bare 48-47 lead (MoE 3.4) over Mark Critz. I sure wish we had more polling on this race, in order to know better just how off the Susquehanna poll was. But still I think it’s safe to say either candidate can win.

P.S. Tim Burns!

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • RINKER

    only because he’ll be easier to beat.

    If you live in Pennsylvania, get on the phone for Burns. Encourage your conservative friends to GO VOTE. Turnout will be key.

  • proudgop

    Be interesting to see who our nominees are to take on Altmire, Dahlkemper, Carney, Holden, and Murphy.

  • zollistar

    Here’s the link:
    http://www.timburnsforcongress.com/html/callfromhome.php

    I said I would make calls. Unfortunately, I’ve had a bit of an emergency and haven’t been able to dial….

    …YET.

    I’ll be calling this evening and tomorrow morning, God willing.

  • tngal

    Question 6 on the PPP poll…55 percent DISapprove of obama’s’ performance, only 35 percnt approve. So that would be good for Burns wouldn’t it? Burns uses a Washington angle in his ads, while Critz is hoping to keep it local.

    Also Burns got 44 percent favorable opinion (46 percent unf), while Critz was a 39 fav and 45 unf. That’s definately better for us isn’t it? Plus 58 percent oppose the healthcare plan, while only 30 percent like it.

    Don’t the individual questions give us a better look into the constituency there than a simple 48-47 overall vote?

    .

  • tngal

    is wrong. The unfavorable on Burns was a 36. So Burns is 44 favorable 36 unfavorable. Certainly better than Critz’s numbers.

  • conservativecrusade

    in the form of a conservative republican gets that area back from the dems,and he should be able to, my day will be made if Sestak beats Spector. How glorious of a day it will be when that liberal, party switching, arrogant, ignorant, ass wipe Spector goes down in flame to the very party he now calls home.

    I hope Spector’s fall hurts a hell of a lot. I hope after this election we never have to hear his name or voice again.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You’re assuming voters vote rationally according to their policy preferences. They don’t. I mean, they did re-elect Murtha repeatedly. :-)

  • RINKER

    I will do my part.

  • tngal

    to throw me a liferaft here on the Burns Critz match. A dingy, an innertube with a ducky head on the front. Anything. Give me something more than 3 more of our people answered the phone during the survey.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I said anybody can win.

    I *wish* I could tell you that Burns is a lock, but… I just don’t have the data to say that. Sorry! :)

  • Adjoran

    I hope he will be pressured to answer questions about the offer of a job in the Administration if he dropped out of the primary, which would be a violation of federal law.

    He was the one who made the claim in the first place. Was he lying about it then, or is he covering up a felony now?

  • boomer

    I would be glad to see Specter go, but I fear Sestak. He’s relatively young, smart, driven, has national experience (he was an admiral and a military advisor to Clinton) and a committed liberal Democrat with support in the Philly suburbs. He was relatively unknown when he took on Specter and ran an effective campaign. Pat Toomey will have a fight on his hands.

  • crassus

    There has not been a poll out in two weeks that showed Specter ahead. If Specter had a chance, Obama would be trying to save him. Specter is toast. Still, at least he has more class than Charlie Crist. I just don’t see why any Democrats would vote for Specter. I think this is good for us- because it will discourage shaky Republicans from party switching.

  • zollistar
  • zollistar

    We have to get behind Toomey BIG TIME.

    Are you ready?

    I am!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It will be a fight but it’s not a particularly uphill battle.