My Storify mini-rant on what happens if Donald Trump wins the nomination.
Do not fall in love with politicians. They will only break your heart.Read More »
Previously, the story of the race for Governor in Texas that was that Rick Perry was stagnant in the polls and Democrat Bill White was rising.
But now, Rasmussen has shown a change. Perry has gone over 50 for the first time, and White has gone back under 40.
Perry has made a little surge to take a 51-38 lead (MoE 4.5). White has gone to his lowest point in the Rasmussen poll, while Perry has gone to his highest. Perry has now taken a dominant 92% lead probability in my model.
Yes, the chance of an outlier is always there, but to me this looks more like a Republican unity bounce as the Kay Bailey Hutchison and Debra Medina voters come home.