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Swingometer now suggests 33 seat Republican gain

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  May 18th, 2010 at 12:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March.

Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.

In 2008 the final two party vote was 55.6 D-44.4 R, or D+11.2. The current R+1 is a swing of 12.2. In the Swingometer that gives us a Republican gain of 33 seats, 7 short of the majority.

Republicans need a swing of 15.1 per the Swingometer to get a one seat majority. 15.1 from 2008 takes us from D+11.2 to R+3.9. That is the lead Republicans want to see in Gallup’s generic ballot.

Though, honestly, the Swingometer probably undercounts the gains Republicans will get in a wave year. It doesn’t account for differences in recruitment, retirement, and national party strategy. The party on offense can do more than the party on defense.

Final note: On Twitter I’ve been giving smaller numbers in the past. That’s because I miscalculated the swing. I’d not properly calculated the two-party vote figures from 2008. In fact I didn’t calculate them at all, and just used the raw percentages. Oops.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

P.S. Reverse the Vote.

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COMMENTS

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  • ilgop24

    I can think of 10 off the top of my head that are going red, that even at a 17 point swing they don’t have going red.

    This thing doesn’t even have any pickups in the state of Indiana, where Brad Ellsworth seat is going Red, Joe Donnelly’s seat is going red, and most likely Baron Hill’s seat is going red.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Reverse the Vote is a program where NRCC honchos don’t control where the money goes. It goes into a trust for the nominee.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If you want to give to the NRCC directly, please do.

    I just link to Reverse the Vote to quiet the complainers. :)

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    They have NY-25 flipping on a swing of about R+13.0… Maffei isn’t somebody I’d consider perfectly safe, but he certainly isn’t among the top 36 likely to lose their seat. If a good wave brings in a 60 seat gain, he could be one of them, but we’re less likely to be rid of him than those Indiana seats are of going Republican.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The closer a race was in 2008 the less of a swing is required on the map.

  • mbauer

    Most of its faults apparently come from their true 3+ party system. It’ll be interesting to see how accurate this is.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I wrote this after watching the BBC coverage of the election over there.

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    Still though good post. Its a good base line to see where we stand, adding or subtracting retirements, unlikely flips etc. from that basic number.

    Could be particularly interesting in stacking up races that are rematches. Arcuri and Hanna in NY-24…

    Fun to play with too. Anybody here who isn’t a liar has to admit that they set it at R+99.999 just to see the map go red,,, and you’re a moderate if you weren’t disappointed that you couldn’t get those last 8 seats or so to flip.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    A swing of 100 means Rs are at like 95 and Ds are at 5.

  • Brian_Roastbeef
  • mbauer

    Maybe mention that on your page explicitly what +10 actually means (as in not a 10 point R increase, but a net R increase + D decrease of 10)

  • mbauer

    Arkansas’s districts are without a doubt either all or 3/4 in play. The swing meter doesn’t readily seem to convert them. Is arkansas tending Republican at a faster rate than most of the country?

  • IJB

    …Because I tend to count “swing” on a one-party basis – e.g. in 2008, the GOP got 42.5% of the national vote, so they need a “swing” of R+7.5% to get to 50.0% in 2010.

    But that’s not how Neil’s swing (i.e. the UK “swing”) is counted. In fact, Neil’s swing ends up being something like double the value of my one-party “swing”, so it’s a little confusing…

  • Flagstaff

    It ignores non-Dem/Rep party votes?

  • E Pluribus Unum

    The EPUometer anticipated outrage over the health care takeover. It anticipated grossly leftist judges. It anticipated the left would continue to overplay their hand. It anticipated a tremendous weariness of the public in response to non-stop Neal-and-Bob media coverage, no matter what kind of aweful things were going on with the administration and the Democrats.

    It said 80 then, and it still says 80. The only difference is that back then it was a very lonely meter. Now it has lots and lots of company.

    Dont doubt the EPUometer.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I plan to do a full writeup on how this thing works.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The two-party swing ignores all the wasted votes.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I expect the poll-based indicators to grow and grow over time.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Arkansas is the last holdout of the post-war shift of the South away from the Democrast.

  • JadedByPolitics

    and I stand at 80+ today and there is NOT a soul I don’t say that too!

  • IJB

    …But right now I’m being conservative, and thinking more like a gain of seats being in the +60′s.

    We’ll all get a better feel for this by the time later summer rolls around, and most of the primaries are done – things like fundraising and in-district polling will give us a clearer picture by then.

  • IJB
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But for it to be probable things have to get a lot worse for the Democrats.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    nt

  • E Pluribus Unum

    That was from 40, so I count Scott Brown as one of mine :)

    I have made a bet with RS commenter djemi on +11, but that was more hopeful than practical.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    They were never Confederates so they were never part of the postbellum rejection of Republicans.

  • Achance

    Polling for party ID doesn’t mean what it once did because parties don’t mean what they once did. Especially on the D side, candidates don’t need the Party if they have the non-profits behind them. A person may answer a poll that they now think that the R is a better choice but when you get into the actual election, they’ll blur party distinctions, run a non-profit financed negative campaign on personal stuff if possible against the R, and people won’t even know they’re voting for a stealth radical hand-picked by Move–On or the Gill Foundation.

    Read: The Blueprint: How the Democrats Won Colorado. It is sobering and I don’t see much on our side that is spun up to combat the Leftist non-profits.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • JadedByPolitics

    if the rest of the states give up 1 with true REDSTATES giving up 2-3 it is a done deal! It is a matter of American’s who love their Country more then themselves this time around :)

  • Return to Revolution
  • E Pluribus Unum

    something really really bad for the Dems might get the House to 66% (that would be +113 I think),

    But it is mathematically not reachable in the Senate in this cycle. There are not 26 Democrat seats up for election.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    They have some scary number of seats in the bag. I think if you count seats not up + truly safe seats they’re at 48 or so.

  • Flagstaff
  • Scope

    then the Didiots will have to peal off 12 Ridiots in order to pass Socialized legislation. Even if we lose Collins, Snowe, McCain (if he isn’t shown the door), Graham and a couple others, the Senate will pass nothing and we can breathe easier until we pick up more seats in the next election.

    I’ll split the difference between Neil’s and EPU house seat pick-ups and take 56 pick-ups. We get the majority, and we can block funding for Obamacare, until it is repealed.

  • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

    These things always tighten up close to the election, and the Donks hold a lot of advantages.

    Still, we are likely to see a big swing, let’s hope it is enough of a swing to make Obama a lame duck.

  • TxCon

    and trickles down…usually. WV has gone for the GOP in the last three Presidential elections. Still can’t figure out Arkansas.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • Bill S

    we are successful in keeping the healthcare debacle within the public’s attention span until November.

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