« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Palin shapes two races

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  May 25th, 2010 at 05:04 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Sarah Palin

Having attended a speech of Nikki Haley’s in Atlanta last year, her run for Governor of South Carolina is one I’ve followed. Living here, I’ve also watched the California Senate race. Both situations seemed to be stable: Haley was stuck in fourth, while in California Tom Campbell was staying ahead of second place Carly Fiorina.

Then Sarah Palin intervened, and both Haley and Fiorina shot into first place in new polls. Now we have confirmation of both events. Sarah Palin carries respect in the Republican Party.

Public Policy Polling checked both primaries. In South Carolina, they show Haley running away at 39, ahead of Henry McMaster at 18, Gresham Barrett at 16, and Andre Bauer at 13 (MoE 3.9). 39 isn’t enough to avoid a runoff, but Haley seems guaranteed to make it to that runoff. A previous poll had Haley at 30.

In California, which has no runoff, PPP shows Fiorina at 41 to Campbell’s 21 and Chuck DeVore’s 16. SurveyUSA had her at 46, but a 20 point lead will suffice in a state with no runoffs. Additionally, 21 is the lowest point Campbell has reached in the RCP history of the race and 16 is tied for the highest DeVore has seen since Campbell entered.

The combination of Palin’s endorsement and Fiorina’s television ad barrage seem not only to have broken the race open for the former HP CEO, but also appear to have sent Campbell on a downward slide, while DeVore’s also on the way up.

The South Carolina race is up in the air thanks to the runoff and certain allegations I won’t name, but barring a Howard Dean-scale collapse, I think Fiorina has the California Senate nomination wrapped up. It’s in the refrigerator, as Chick Hearn used to say.

That’s the power of Sarah Palin, it seems.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • redtillimdead

    I’d enjoy that.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I would love to see the pro abort crash and burn.

    And since he just called Fiorina racist for backing the Arizona law right now in the debate… he just might fall deeply into third.

  • http://joshuatrevino.com Joshua Trevino

    I hate to defend Campbell, but he just attacked Fiorina because SHE said Republicans have a “racist tone” on immigration in her Politico interview a couple of weeks back.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I misread your Twitter post then.

    I read “Campbell attacks Fiorina for her “racist tone” comment on Republicans and immigration.” as “Campbell attacks Fiorina for her “racist tone” on Republicans and immigration.”

  • Diogenes314
  • RINKER

    that Campbell supports the Arizona law. What is his position?

    …C’mon, Carly. You can’t have it both ways. You’re either for the law or against it. It isn’t racist to enforce existing federal law.

  • Diogenes314

    I’ll get the html down one of these days.

  • red_oakster

    She turned the NY special away from Scozzafava. She endorsed Paul (after Steve Forbes admittedly). And now Haley and Fiorina. Compared to other 2012 possibilities, she has been near perfect in picking up chits from potential officeholders and in maintaining respect within the tea party world. Even the decision to abstain in Colorado looks to prove shrewd. She is not to be underestimated.

  • red_oakster

    she also was shrewd enough to steer clear. Very well played.

  • IJB

    …I suspect Fiorina’s pretty good advertising starting to air had more to do with it than Palin’s endorsement (which I doubt counts for much among CA Republicans).

    Palin’s endorsement may have helped her on the margins, but I doubt it’s responsible for most of Fiorina’s rise.

  • constitutionalconservative

    Of all the the major Republican figures, her endorsements have been by far the best substantively and politically. She has followed the Buckley dictum of “the most conservative candidate who can win”. And she won’t back down and she drives the liberals absolutely mad, which I love.

    I’m still not necessarily sold on her as a Presidential candidate, because I would like to see more in the way of substantive policy from her– But as a leading national Republican figure and proponent of the consevative brand– absolutely– I wish we could clone her.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • jforChuck-Bounce Boxer

    News out today that she supported Prop. 26 which would have essentially killed Prop 13, the saving grace for California taxpayers requiring a 2/3 vote for a tax hike.

    Quoting Chip Hanlon at Red County…

    “This post will likely be very cut-and-dry to California conservatives. Central to most GOP voters here is Prop 13, which capped property taxes at 1% of the value of a property, but even it allows for taxes to be raised beyond that level– but only with a 2/3 vote of the people.

    For years, liberal spendthrifts and RINOs alike have sought to undermine this supermajority protection, which has arguably been the one thing that prevented this state from having been driven into a no-growth, overtaxed ditch long ago– the one we maybe headed for, anyway.

    So, in 2000, a Prop 26 was on the ballot. What did it do? It was an attempt by Prop 13 opponents to undermine that 2/3 majority protection– in the name of the children, of course! Well, voters solidly rejected this end-run on Prop 13, but one GOP Senate candidate supported it whole-heartedly: Carly Fiorina.”

    Read full story here…

    http://www.redcounty.com/i-dont-care-if-shes-winning-carly-must-explain/40365

    Maybe “right to life” and “guns” and “national security” are not the first things CA voters consider, but Prop 13, messing with that is a serious no-no. Even Tom Campbell wasn’t liberal enough to support it.

    Note- Fiorina admitted her support and writing of this op-ed in the debate today.

  • SteveLA

    IJB

    I think you underestimate the signal to the Pro-Life folks in CA that it’s OK to vote for Fiorina that Palin’s endorsement signaled. That effectively took the oxygen out of DeVore’s main base which is the CA R party base.

    Her commercials, especially Demon Sheep got her noticed, the endorsement of Palin helped much more from what I see.

  • Josh LeGuern

    “(which I doubt counts for much among CA Republicans).”

    Ever been to Orange County? Central Valley? or even parts of San Diego?

    Pay attention to the last year’s special election (where 5 tax increase laws were struck down by the electorate.)?

    we’re pretty damn conservative here in CA.

  • SteveLA

    Carlie backed Prop 26 for sure, no doubt about it. The times in the state were a bit different and the financial mess had not happened…yet and as I recall the Teachers Union was going for much more money at the trough, this was an attempt to placate them.

    The legislation went down to defeat by the way.

    But as an issue, I guess when you’re loosing as badly as DeVore is, go on the attack is as good a strategy as anything else to get people to pay attention to your campaign.

  • SteveLA

    The morons here in LA County passed a extra half cent sales tax for “Public transportation”, taking us in LA County to 10 percent sales tax.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think a lot of conservatives are fine with property taxes funding local schools.

  • SteveLA

    Here’s what Fiorina actually said in the Politico interview.

    But when asked in an interview with POLITICO if Republicans needed to make any changes in their approach to the growing Hispanic community,

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36629.html#ixzz0ozK7GiNG

    Fiorina replied, “There has been a very unfortunate racist tone that has emerged in a lot of the discussion about immigration and that’s inexcusable.”

  • http://www.chuckdevore.com jforChuck

    Campbell has said time and time again that he will not swear off tax hikes because you never know what reason you may need them. Doesn’t this prove that Fiorina essentially feels the same way? Yes CA was in better shape then… but judgment… if mid teens in unemployment now, 20 billion plus deficit, if Prop 26 was still in effect how much worse we’d be. Yes, I know it was defeated… subsequently and predictably she did not vote for it, or against it, or for anything.

  • SteveLA

    jforChuck

    I don’t know if Carlie agrees with Campbell or not, I hope not. But remember that the Teachers Union was prepared to go around the voters and use their voting block of Democrats to enact the same sort of budget gimmick that this prop was trying to do. As I recall this was Grey Dog Davis way of stopping that move.

    Throw in that as Neil pointed out, not everyone is anti school construction bond, I am and voted against this measure, but not everyone is on the same page on this topic. Well maybe expect Tom McClintock who as far as I know never voted in favor of any budget when in Sacramento.

  • takemccain2

    Not from me she doesn’t.
    Respect for her star power is one thing, respect for her judgment as it regards who she’s been endorsing is another. I’m not talking about Haley but I am talking about McCain and Fiorina. No way would I ever support either one of them under any circumstances.
    Too much lately it seems Sarah is too busy supporting establishment Republicans that helped create the messes we are in now. As we’ve all seen from the last 5-7 years, you can’t trust ‘moderates’ because they sell out the base and are too busy looking ‘bipartisan’ to really support returning America to it’s roots of rugged individualism, limited government and lower taxes. Haven’t we had enough McCains, Specters, Grahams and Crists in the GOP to last us a lifetime? Here’s the lesson some seem to never learn – a Moderate Republican is the same thing as a Democrat.
    I’m nothing but disappointed in Palin. She – like her boss, McCain – will never have my vote.

  • http://www.viewfromstonewater.blogspot.com hrh40

    of her speech at the University of Denver Saturday May 22, 2010.

    And the Q&A afterward with Dennis Prager and Hugh Hewitt.

    See what you think of her policy after watching this speech.

    (Hewitt praises her detailed discussion of Iran and sanctions …)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.viewfromstonewater.blogspot.com hrh40

    Here it is:

    http://www.conservatives4palin.com/2010/05/governor-palins-speech-at-university-of.html

  • http://www.viewfromstonewater.blogspot.com hrh40

    So you don’t like 2 of her endorsements?

    Out of more than 15?

    And how in the world is Fiorina the establishment pick?

    Isn’t Tom Campbell the lifer politician?

    Who was in the governor’s race until Meg Whitman/Mitt Romney convinced him to get out so he could be the establishment pick in the Senate race?

    How’s that plan working out for you, Romney, erm Whitman?

    How’s it working out for Campbell?

    You’re not following things very closely if you think Palin is picking the establishment candidates.

    Just the opposite. Other than McCain.

    CA establishment? Campbell
    KY establishment? Grayson
    SC establishment? McMaster

    Palin has gone against the establishment in 95% of her picks.

  • Section9

    Nothing like a Paleocon to give a good dose of Bracing “My Way or the Highway” conservatism.

    That’s about, ohhhh, 15 % of the country.

    So, how’s J.D. Hayworth doing now that he’s declared that the U.S. didn’t declare war on Germany?

    Look, you have to credit Sarah for some sound judgements here. You may not like the fact that DeVore isn’t getting traction, but Sarah’s judgement has been sound so far.

    It will stand her in good stead in the future.

    Meantime, let’s see how Rand Paul and Nikki Haley play out.

  • SteveLA

    Neil

    I looked at the previous poll analysis you posted last night, but didn’t see the Public Policy Poll discussed. Are you planning to do one on that one too.

    Seems to confirm Survey USA, Fiorina is surging, Campbell is fading and DeVore is more or less holding in the mid teens with the undecided, deciding finally.

  • SteveLA

    It’s not related to this thread, but McCain has a pretty funny video of JD on the topic of WWII. I’m saving it up for the next JD tread.

  • Bill S

    that’s his M.O. Your first sentence pegged it right on target.

  • Cheryl
  • ymchoo

    Snow White vs The Seven Dwarfs

    The GOP will soon be known as Snow White vs The Seven Dwarfs with Sarah “Snow White” Palin leading such GOP Dwarfs as Huckabee, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Thune, DeMint, Romney and Ron Paul. When Snow White leads, The Seven Dwarfs follow.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But I’d like to think I’m able to slow down and think it through.

    I’d vote against any tax hike, any time, but I know some solid conservatives are fine with local spending on schools, and I can respect that. Even if I disagree.

  • SteveLA

    Cheryl

    Well I’d sort of agree with you but with the caveat that “Sacred Cow” is a tasty steak dinner when times are good in the Golden state, even for many of the elected R’s in the Assembly.

    Flash back to the late 90′s, this state was pretty flush with cash and the Teachers wanted that cash. Prop 26 was an attempt to broker a deal on making yet another set aside in the state’s budget based on revenues of the day.

  • SteveLA
  • Richard Mullins

    Complain about some people’s endorsements because it’s not what you want. What a whining person that give reasons to vote for anything. I think it’s time that you who you are before it’s too late. Just because the autonomous NRSC picked Fiorina doesn’t make her the establishment pick. It might make her the National moderate pick, but the establishment pick is going to look like the leftists in the CA GOP.

  • IJB

    And I’m in San Diego County.

    But being conservative does not mean you necessarily put much stock in what Palin has to say.

    I think that some parts of the country are more receptive to Palin’s influence than others – CA does not strike me as a state where Palin’s going to have all that much pull. SC may be different.

  • SteveLA

    You posted the same “stuff” in another thread, all in your 19 day adventure here on RS.

    Is this like Uncle Ted’s excellent adventure or something?

  • SIConservative

    I’m glad that Palin helped Haley and, regardless of the fact that it was via Fiorina rather than DeVore, may have sunk Campbell.

    That said, I am very concerned that she is becoming the face of the Party. While she can be a conservative rock star, I and several others still haven’t gotten past her SNL/Katie Couric interview. Yes, yes, I know that most people on here dismiss it. That’s fair enough as far as your own opinions go. It doesn’t account for the fact, though, that many view Palin as a laughing stock. My opinion aside, that is how she is viewed by millions of people, including many independents, unreliable Republican voters, and some Democrats who might be looking for something new this year. I’m happy to have Palin working hard in the primaries, and it’d be great to have her raising money for libertarian/conservative candidates in the fall, but if she is viewed as the leader of the Party heading into November, I fear that it could cost us millions of voters from people who are afraid to put a Party of which she is the leader into power.

  • redtillimdead

    She has signed the taxpayer protection pledge, which Campbell refuses to do.

  • DaMav

    Wow is it great to hear that again. I miss Chick – one of the best.

    Good article but that was the icing on the cake for me. Thanks

  • jeffreywturner

    And like many of you, I so thoroughly enjoy watching her get under the skin of the media to the point their heads nearly explode. In fact, the hatred she inspires from the media alone is reason enough to make me like her.

  • eastbaylarry

    I don’t remember the last tax hike I voted for, and I’ve had kids in school since 1991.
    And I’ve ALWAYS been against the unions, Teachers or others. More for unions is an automatic “NO” vote with me and I’ve been in California all my life.

  • wolfster38
  • SirGladiator

    When you think about it, this is our next President helping her supporters to know who she needs to help her fix America when she gets into office in 2013. Haley in SC, Paul in KY, FIorina in CA, etc. she’s going to have a real head start on having the support and help that she needs to fix the mess that Obama is leaving her, and of course we’ll also be reaping the benefits of excellent Conservative leadership from these folks, so its a total win-win all the way around. Well done Sarah, keep up the great work!

  • aesthete

    Her inability to stray far from the standard Republican platitudes on war, taxes, and spending, and her inarticulate or embarrassing appearances in the media (even the friendly media) could hurt us. Shades of Bush 2.0 won’t help us, either.

    But so long as she’s working for and fundraising for us, I don’t care how much money she makes; just would rather have her out of the public eye for a while.

  • takemccain2

    If two Republicans had stood firm on the Constitutional Option we could have confirmed ALL of Bush’s excellent nominees to the circuit courts.

    Just two.

    We would have had 50 then and the Vice President’s tie-breaker vote and that would have been it. No more obstruction of the process by Democrats, just a straight up-and-down vote on nominees not legislation.

    But two of those turncoats cast their souls with McCain, Graham and several other typically squishy Republicans who could have cared less about what their constituents wanted. Hugh Hewitt said that the day the GOP lost the Congress was in 2005 after the debacle caused by the ‘Gang of 14′ and their act.

    He was right then and I’m right now.

    All it takes are two. Fiorina and McCain can be firmly marked in that sellout department because they will sell us out on the big issues. It is a pattern with McCain and it will be so with Fiorina.

    This isn’t about control being just a numbers game anymore. We have to demand purity or the point of having a majority is wasted, just like it was after 2004 when we had 55 GOP senators and didn’t get jack crap accomplished because you couldn’t count on the RINOS to do what the conservatives wanted.

    Having a bare majority with 2 senators who will stab you in the back is just what you’re going to get with 6 more years of that a-hole McCain and his surrogate Fiorina.

    God help us if either of them wins in November.

  • takemccain2

    Guess your still on the playground telling people that your dad can beat up their dad.

    If the best you can do is counter my argument with calling me names then that speaks volumes on your mental age and your ability to articulate intelligently on this topic.

    Grow up.

  • takemccain2

    Say what you will about Palin but Obama is proving that speaking eloquence hardly translates to competent leadership. He is wrecking the economy, weakening the military and trying to dilute American culture all while sounding great.

    Bush wasn’t the most polished speaker in history but the man was usually reliable in a crisis and had policy experience as opposed to this first-rate amateur, Obama.

    To compare Palin to Bush is categorically wrong. Bush had a good grasp of issues and could lead. I think Palin is a good person but she has got to use better political sense when dealing with the media and when endorsing candidates. I’m betting she is listening to ‘danged fence’ McCain and he is telling her who to support.

  • Diogenes314

    That Fiorina would vote against confirming said judges?

    And do you think Campbell would actually be better?