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Governors matter.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  May 28th, 2010 at 02:31 PM  | 

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At RedState we’ve hammered for a long time the idea that your local politics matter. We also give plenty of attention to federal elections for the House, the Senate, and of course the President.

But governors matter, too. The next governor of South Carolina will affect us all. As will Georgia’s, Ohio’s, and Oregon’s. It doesn’t matter where you live. These Governors, as well as 26 others, are up for election this year and will have veto power over their state’s next Congressional districts.

It’s no good to win in 2010 if we have to give the House back in 2012 because the Democrats gerrymander our majority away. So let’s pay attention to these races.

I’ve compiled a table of just what Governor’s races this year matter to the House, and how important they are to us. My source for which Governors get to veto districts, how many seats they have now, and how many they are expected to have in 2012 is the National Council of State Legislatures, via the Minnesota Senate. My source for which seats are up for election in 2010 is Wikipedia.

So here it is: every state expected to have more than one House member in 2012, with a Governor up for election who will have veto power over those House districts.

State 2000 House Seats 2010 Projection
AL 7 7
AZ 8 9
AR 4 4
CA 53 53
CO 7 7
FL 25 26
GA 13 14
IL 19 18
IA 5 4
KS 4 4
ME 2 2
MD 8 8
MA 10 9
MI 15 14
MN 8 7
NE 3 3
NV 3 4
NH 2 2
NM 3 3
NY 29 28
OH 18 16
OK 5 5
OR 5 6
PA 19 18
RI 2 2
SC 6 7
TN 9 9
TX 32 36
UT 3 4
WI 8 8
Totals 335 337

There it is: the makeup of three fourths of the House from January 2013 to December 2022 will be influenced this November. Every single one of these Governor’s races demands national attention from conservative activists this year, if we want a level playing field in the coming decade.

One way we can win this fight is to take a good look at the Republican Governors Association. They’re the ones behind the Remember November video that had everyone talking. They’re fighting, and we can help.

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COMMENTS

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  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    First real conservative governor candidate in quite sometime. We must defeat Gov. Pat Quinn. Plus, we need to take back the Illinois House in the General Assembly in order to help release the stranglehold that Speaker Mike Madigan has on Illinois politics.

    http://bradyforillinois.com/

  • Brian Hibbert

    I’m in Tazewell and we’re on board for Brady.

  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    We’re on board down here as well!

  • acat

    South of I-80 should be relatively easy for Brady.

    It’s the collar counties that will be somewhat tougher, but that Brady needs to connect with to win.

    Mew

  • http://www.WILLisms.com WILLisms

    Pretty interesting: http://rickperry.org/release/war-hero-scott-o%E2%80%99grady-calls-bill-white-apologize-supporting-limited-military-voting-rights

    Captain Scott O?Grady, USAF, today called on Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White to apologize for supporting limited voting rights for men and women of the military.

    In 1997, ?White said military voters are entitled to have a say in the races for federal offices ? president, vice president and the Congress ? but not in state, county or local elections.? (SOURCE: ?Democratic leader supports voting suit,? San Antonio Express-News, March 7, 1997)

  • Brian Hibbert

    Brady doesn’t have the name recognition that Quinn has upstate. That may work to his benefit in this case. Everyone knows that Quinn was Blago’s Lt. and everyone keeps seeing the Democrats squabbling over the state budget.

  • zuiko

    The Democrats can just get the court to gerrymander for them if the Gov isn’t on board. That is pretty much what happened last time around with Minneapolis and St Paul each getting their own districts. Unfortunately the Dems are practically veto proof in the state legislature (they are in the Senate and 3 votes shy in the House) so Gov is probably about all we can hope for.

  • kakypat

    Rasmussen has Dudley and Kitzhaber in a dead heat. The trend is up for Dudley, and down for Kitzhaber. Too, the unaffiliated seem to be gravitating to Dudley.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/oregon/election_2010_oregon_governor

    We may have more than our fair share of fruits and nuts out here, but there are a lot of sane people who are highly motivated to vote this fall.

  • aimcifer

    I’m really hoping LePage can get voted for Maine. We NEED someone like him in this very blue state.

  • acat

    … only in that Quinn is a Dem hack who has been around forever, is easily tied to Blago, and wants to raise taxes to fix the budget.

    That said, Brady can’t just be the anti-Blago or anti-Quinn and win. He won’t get the turnout he needs, and I think we all know Chicago will have its’ usual dirty tricks going on.

    Brady needs to step it up, and soon.

    Mew

  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    but south of I-80 doesn’t always go GOP. The maps of the 2006 Blago v. Barr-Topinka shows Metro East, Quincy area, and deep southern Illinois when for Blago. The 2008 Pres. map shows a more lean to GOP in deep southern Illinois. Effingham went McCain by the largest margin in the state. The General is always different than the Primary. Brady in the Primary did win downstate except for a few counties that went for Adam A.

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/IL/G/00/map.html

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPIL

    I take nothing for granted in Illinois politics. Quinn might be down in the polls, but Blago had less than 30% approval rating going into Nov. 2006 and still won re-election. Mike Madigan has yet to start using his influence and money to shape this upcoming election.

  • Scope

    I am very happy that you are putting some focus on the Governor’s races. Not knowing what is going to happen in Washington with the 2010 Rep. and Senate races, or how relevant the Obama admin. will consider Congress to be, having as many R Governors as possible may just be that last line of defense. We need as many fighting warriors, such as Chris Christie, as we can get.

  • beachpatriot

    Getting behind Paul LePage is the best way to fix what is wrong here in Maine. Paul is a Constitutionalist and will veto any bill that is contrary to either the US or Maine Constitutions. He is the only candidate to have actually lowered taxes as a chief executive. He did that in each of his three terms as mayor of Waterville. He got his nickname of Front Page LePage by going directly to the people through the press to get his all Democrat city council to do the fiscally responsible thing whenever necessary.
    Paul has a great welfare reform program that includes a residency requirement, incentives for work through a tiered system and lifetime limit on benefits that will break the cycle of dependency.
    He is a vocal supporter of the People’s Veto of LD 1495, the so-called tax reform bill that would create and raise taxes on over 100 items to offset a minor reduction in our top marginal income tax rate. That reduction is really only a shell game since we will lose the deductibility of charitable donations and home mortgage interest payments.
    His plan to reduce income taxes down from a top rate of 8.5% down to 5% does not involve any offsetting sales tax increases or other gimmicks. Paul’s plan for restoring fiscal health to our state includes shrinking the size and scope of state government.
    Paul has earned the endorsement of the Maine Republican Liberty Caucus and the Red County Caucus and is the overwhelming favorite of Tea Party movement supporters in Maine. We are down to the last ten days of the primary campaign. If you aren’t familiar with Mayor LePage, go to http://www.lepage2010.com and check him out. If you are able, please donate to the campaign. TV and radio advertising is expensive and costs money. Volunteer for the campaign on his website.
    Paul deserves our support on June 8th in the Maine Republican primary.

  • proudgop

    The great thing about the Gov Races is that the GOP is showing strength in almost every race from northeast to west coast

    We have OK, TN, WY, KS as solid pickups
    We are very competitive in MI, WI, PA, IA
    even in states like IL, OR, MA, MD, NM we have chances to pick seats up
    Even Rasmussen numbers for AR are tightening

    Most of the states we currently hold look solid for us.
    RI and HA look tough to hold; might be lost sadly
    CT, VT, MN, CA, and FL look like tough races for us
    TX and GA are competitive too

  • southernilpat

    Quinn was a fairly frequent visitor on the Don Wade and Roma radio show when he was Lt. Gov. He came across as warm and down to earth (unlike Blago who sounded like an oily politician whenever he was on). Someone who doesn’t pay that much attention to the specifics could easily be swayed to vote for him – especially as the Chicago cancer spreads outward past even the collar counties. I’m just hoping that even in northern IL there are enough brain cells left to realize our state is hanging onto it’s last thread.

  • JoeG

    That would be a surprise to me, I thought they were down the list quite a distance from getting a seat.

    If Oregon picks up one seat, it will be an R seat no matter the party in power. Oregon was very carefully gerrymandered in 2000 to give 4 of 5 seats to the dems even though most state wide races go only 52-48 for the dems. There is just no way to draw the lines to get 5 of 6 seats for the dems. At the best they can draw them, it becomes 4-6, with a pickup for the Rs. Drawn for the Republicans, it could be 2D 4R.

    If Oregon doesn’t pick up a seat it could be drawn as 3R 2D if we take the governorship, house and senate back.

  • Brian Hibbert

    And couldn’t (or didn’t) counter the attack ads that kept tying her to George Ryan. If I remember correctly those ads started in the primary season (when Blago had no opponent and could spend his money on his probable opponent in the general). Quinn spent a lot of his money in the primary this year and only barely won the it.

    This year is a little different. Quinn hasn’t had a year of ads demonizing Brady. He is also on the receiving end of the ties to a corrupt governor ad, he’s got a budget mess on his hands, and he’s been talking up a 33% tax increase (scaled back from the 50% he wanted last year and the 66% increase the Senate Dems wanted).

    I’m also in an area that is heavily union and leans strongly Democrat (Peoria) so it’s sometimes an uphill battle. I like to encourage the Green’s because they siphon votes from the Dems (Sheldon Shaefer took 3% from Colleen Calahan which didn’t matter for Aaron Schock’s 60% victory). 3% isn’t huge, but it can make a difference in a tight race.

    But I get your point…. TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED!

    So if you’re in Illinois, go here:
    http://bradyforillinois.com
    and sign up to help or send him some $$$$$.