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Gallup generic ballot suggests 45 seat Republican gain

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 1st, 2010 at 06:37 PM  | 

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The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Republicans have jumped to a 49-43 advantage, which National Review Online says is the largest Republican lead in 60 years.

Given the historical accuracy of the Gallup generic ballot in midterm elections, let’s plug this result in to the Swingometer.

In 2008, per Wikipedia, the national popular vote for the House went 53% for the Democrats and 43% for the Republicans. That translates to a 55 D-45 R two party vote when we subtract other votes. That gives the Democrats a 10 point advantage in 2008.

The current Gallup Generic Ballot reads 43 for the Democrats and 49 for the Republicans. That translates to a two party vote of 47 D-53 R, or a Republican advantage of 6.

From R-10 to R+6 adds up to a 16 point swing from 2008. If every district moved 16 points from 2008, the Swingometer projects a 45 seat Republican gain, for 223 seats in the House and the majority.

This will typically be a low end projection in a wave year, additionally, because the “national climate” influences fundraising, voter enthusiasm, retirements, and recruitment.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • bigalinaz

    Before they hatch…..?

  • scarlos

    if you’re going to calculate using a swing-o-meter, a better comparison would be the pre-2008-election Gallup poll instead (53-41 D) for consistency. That gives a 51-seat GOP pickup, assuming 2008 levels of turnout.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’d do all sorts of comparisons.

    Sadly, I don’t.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That’s why the swingometer’s there. I love to hear how other people use it!

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • http://www.rightklik.net rightklik

    It would be interesting to know if Gallup polling data comes from landline calls.

    Karl Rove notes that “landline-only” polls are increasingly skewing away from younger voters and minorities:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/the-feed/56101/landline-only-polls-produce-statistically-significant-differences-opinion

    http://pewresearch.org/assets/publications/1601-1a.gif

    Landline-only polls might create a rosier-than-real picture for Republicans.

    FWIW, data from Intrade would suggest a 30 seat gain for the GOP:

    http://electoralmap.net/2010/house_seats.php.

    But a 40 seat gain necessary to take bake the House seems well within reach to me.

    It’s still “the economy, stupid” and the Dems have trashed the economy to the extent that I don’t anticipate any big improvements between now and Nov.

  • http://www.rightklik.net rightklik

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/101872/How-does-Gallup-polling-work.aspx

    The MAJORITY of Gallup surveys in the U.S. are based on interviews conducted by landline and cellular telephones.

    So if this polling data came from a representative mix of landlines and cell phones, this is very good news for the GOP.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Do they have any track record of predictiveness this far out at all?

    Their markets are far too small to be of use, I would think.

  • WIBadger

    Mid-term elections and all that.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    2006 had different final results, so the swing from 2006 to 2010 doesn’t tell us the amount to swing the districts.

    2008 was a trough for us. We need to measure just how far up we’re coming from that point, and 2006 is insufficient for doing that.

  • earlgrey

    We have to be realistic, and not get our hopes up too high. I don’t sense the outrage that I did before. Immigration and the oil spill will boost voter turnout for dems.

  • Ausonius

    InTrade markets often have volatile contradictory swings within minutes of the deadline, so no, they have no track record of trustworthiness this far out.

    If Republicans/Conservatives/Tea Partiers cannot keep the outrage fanned, given how the MAObama regime pours out opportunities like gasoline on a barbecue grill, then we are doomed.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    We need 40 just to take the House.

    I’ve been expecting this number to blow open for some time. Remember: 100 is the upper bound if we get very lucky. 50, 60 is perfectly realistic to consider.

  • Next93

    This administration has proved that it’s not above sending helicopters over the countryside and shoveling other people’s cash out the open door, in order to secure “popularity”.

    Also, I beleive Gallup has historically undercounted the Zombie-American vote, which in the case of this bunch of Chicago Thugs, could conceivably be a force to be reconed with in this election.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    My starting point is the actual final vote. So any alleged fraud is already baked in.

  • MICHAELNLA

    For those who may have forgotten how Loretta Sanchez beat Bob Dornan in 1996…He lost by a few hundred votes and hundreds of voters just so happened to have been non-citizens…

  • JadedByPolitics

    when EPU and my numbers which are 80+ become a REALITY!

  • http://www.rightklik.net rightklik

    The Intrade data are certainly of very limited value at this point, but it will be interesting to check in from time to time over the coming months.

  • gunslingr45

    we do not see a MAJOR swing in electing “Conservatives” this fall, it will not make much of a difference. If you consider people who are RINO’S it may be not enough to get rid of the pork and spending people who sit in office.
    I fear many RINO’S do not get the angry message being sent by the people.
    Too many Arlen Specter’s in the closet IMO.

    “To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which He disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.”
    Thomas Jefferson

  • http://www.houston-pos.net geotex

    … is at work here. Not only do we have generic swings to Republican, we are seeing strong resentment to incumbents, no matter what side of the isle they are on. Republicans may well win a majority in both houses. I think we will also see an important change on the Democratic side as well. Polls aside, my (obviously non-scientic and biased) blog, newsletter and conversations and emails with a wide variety people show a strong “throuw out the incumbents” attitude.

    People of both parties are angry, realizing the Hopey-Changey thing so far has only given unwanted change and no hope.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Are we seeing any evidence that Republican incumbents across the board are doing poorly in general election matchups?

    I’m not. Perry was supposed to be a big example of that but now he got a unity bounce and he’s fine.

    Burr looks either endangered or alright depending on what likely voter model you use.

  • redneck_hippie

    I had thought 2012 would be “it’s the character, stupid,” but the people of America have become wise and are throwing out the liars and crooks even earlier than I had hoped.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Any that vote this year probably voted in 2008 too, and those are baked in already.

    Though honestly, I don’t think a LOT of them vote. Some surely do, but the real danger I think they bring is that they get counted for districting without actually being eligible voters.

    So you get rotten districts like Xavier Becerra’s, where the actual voters there have a disproportionate impact on the House.