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Challenger crosses 50 in South Dakota House Race

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 16th, 2010 at 04:03 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Sandlin Noem

South Dakota has only one House seat, so its House elections are full-fledged statewide affairs, and so we get a rare House poll to look at, from Rasmussen Reports.

It’s not looking good for the three term incumbent and Democrat. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is behind Republican Kristi Noem 53-41 (MoE 4.5) for a huge 90% lead probability. It’s hard to be behind when there’s a 95% likelihood that you’re above 48.5, as is the case with Noem. Intersting quote from Rasmussen:

Noem earns 75% support from those voters who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care bill. Herseth-Sandlin gets 75% of the vote of those who are Strongly Opposed.

The PPACA just isn’t popular enough for those Strongly Opposed to repeal to help Sandlin enough.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • teresakoch

    …it seems as if her constituents didn’t like what was in the ObamaDon’tCare bill after all…..

  • Wubbies World

    …. In South Dakota, the ObamaCare bill is kryptonite. Herseth-Sandlin voted against it, but only because it was safe for her to do so, and it would still pass.

    Herseth-Sandlin has been trying to do what typical South Dakota politicians do. They go to Washington and stay too long. In Washington they do and say one thing and then come home and say another. They play both sides of the fence.

    Herseth-Sandlin is getting caught doing it just like Daschle did. She campaigns as a fiscal discipline Blue Dog Democrat, then voted for TARP and Porkulus.

    She is about to get burnt by it just like Daschle did.

  • nvrepub

    nt

  • Wubbies World

    .

  • Kyle-MI

    Thune broke that lock and now this year it looks like the Dakota congressional delegation will go from 5-1 in the Dems favor to 2-4 for the GOP. In ND for the House Berg (R) is ahead of Pomeroy (D) by 52 to 43. In ND for the Senate Hoeven (R) vaporizes Potter (D) by 72 to 23. Thune will be reelected and now Noem is in a good position against Sandlin. The only Dems who will retain their jobs are those who are not running this year.

  • Wubbies World

    My wife personally knows the Sec of State Chris Nelson. He is a great guy, Christian and definitely a solid conservative. He was expected to win the primary in a cake walk. Before the primary he was beating Herseth-Sandlin in the polling.

    Then Kristi Noem, a state Rep out of Sioux Falls, stepped into the election. She didn’t have a lot of money and came out of nowhere. Listening people talk about her is amazing. She has become very popular very fast. The really nice part as the spot light shown on her after the primary, she has not wilted. She has stayed rock steady in her beliefs and positions.

    As people get to know her, they like her even more, just as I have. She has a real chance to beat Herseth-Sandlin.

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    B..b..but I thought that passing the health care bill was gonna stop making them lose

    You mean that forcing unpopular legislation on the country hurts majority party incumbents?

    The sad break for Sandlin is that she is a blue dog who voted against the health care bill and she still isn’t getting any strength for that. I’m not shedding any tears though. Sorry “moderates,” that’s what you get for being in Nancy’s party. If you want credit for bucking the party, then oust the extreme leadership that is trying to drag this country into socialism.

    I’m wary of counting unhatched chickens, but with South Dakota deep red and this being a Republican year, this is looking pretty close to a big pickup. This was somebody who was considered one of their rising stars. 3 term incumbent here… does she bail and decide to retire at the ripe age of 40, or does she start talking guns and try to make the state forget that she’s pro-choice.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Who are you calling a long shot in CA?

  • nvrepub

    I was just using the CA primary as an example; out there (or NY, etc.), a money bomb is a relative drop in the bucket. Same with any expensive media market.

    SD, however, is a small state; cheap media market; and it’s a general election, where our money will be used against a Democrat, not against other Repubs. That was my only point – that dollar for dollar, we can do much more to impact this race.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Because our statewide candidates for Governor and Senate this year in California are NOT longshots :-)

  • nvrepub

    Neil, I went to USD; what part of CA are you in?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Lived in OC until I was about 8, been out here since, save for a brief time in Pasadena for school.

  • Wubbies World

    This is also another strike against the liberal feminist mold. Kristi is another hot conservative woman.

  • smagar

    I know this might sound shallow—but your hair looks as if it was done by the hairdresser for the B52s (The rock group, not the strategic bomber).

    Then again, Herseth-Sandlin looks anorexic…

  • IJB

    IOW, it’s sexy. ;)

  • smagar
  • proudgop

    I mean she basically is in Texas with her hubby who was ousted I guess she can join him in ex congressional club in November

  • JX12

    I could see the fireworks show at Disneyland from my back yard.

  • Wubbies World

    …. then she went to college and moved to Washington and became an abortion lobbyist Then she moved back to South Dakota to run for her seat. She comes back to visit a couple times a year during Congressional vacations.

  • SIConservative