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Could None of These win in Illinois?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 18th, 2010 at 03:11 PM  | 

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Giannoulias Kirk

Elections in Nevada give the voter the choice to vote for “None of These” candidates listed. Every poll I see of the Illinois Senate race suggests to me that if Illinois put that option on the ballot, None of These would win.

The next bit of evidence for the pile: PPP’s latest poll of the race.

Unlike many states we’ve seen, support for the PPACA runs relatively high: with 45% actually supporting it versus 43% who oppose it, meaning this had the marks of a close race before it began.

But since it did, both the Republican Mark Kirk and the Democrat Alexi Giannoulias have been hit by scandals, and support for both is running low. Giannoulias leads Kirk 31-30 (MoE 4.2), which is in line with previous polls I’ve seen.

PPP does throw in the wrinkle of a spoiler candidate, the Green Party’s LeAlan Jones, who pulls in 14% support, and 26% of self-identified African American voters.

The poll asks about the Kirk scandal, with 10% saying Kirk was truthful about his military record, while 45% think he was lying. However no questions are asked about the Banking controversies surrounding Giannoulias, leaving us with only half the picture of why 39% of the electorate isn’t ready to line up behind the Democrat or the Republican.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    I wrote about this as well, but more from the side that Kirk is in danger of losing to Giannoulias because of a possible new entry to the race. Also, the Green Party only received 3% in the last Senate election, so 14% might not hold by the time November rolls around. The Green Party received about 10% of the vote in the 2006 Governor’s race between Blago and Barr-Topinka, but they don’t seem do as well in the federal races.

    http://downstateiladvocate.com/2010/06/13/illinois-senate-race-might-get-interesting.aspx

    Then there’s this posted on Illinois Review this morning…

    http://illinoisreview.typepad.com/illinoisreview/2010/06/giannoulias-goons-manhandle-videographer.html

    This race is going to be absolutely brutal (as if it isn’t already).

  • jb13

    A federal judge has ruled that the government of Illinois erred (I know, big shock, but stay with me) in allowing Roland Burris (D-Blago) to serve out the entirety of the remainder of Obama’s Senate term. It seems the Constitution requires a special election for Senate replacements. That means that whoever wins on Nov. 2 could immediately take office. (If you don’t think this is important, reference earlier posts regarding Obama’s plans for lame duck Senate votes on cap and tax.)

    I know Kirk isn’t a conservative. But he will at least caucus with Republicans and the surest way to ensure the swift death of his political career would be to enter the Senate and immediately side with the Democrats in setting energy policy.

    http://illinois.statehousenewsonline.com/3303/judge-special-election-needed-to-replace-burris/

  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    I wonder how that will play out in November. It might confuse the voters. Vote for one to serve 8 weeks, Vote for one to serve 6 years. It’s hard enough to get people to vote in the mid-term elections in Illinois, and then we’re going to confuse them on top of that? Will Illinois always be the butt of political jokes?

  • SirGladiator

    Is there any chance a Conservative, Tea-Party type candidate, who basicly has the same platform as the GOP candidate for Illinois Governor, might get into the race for Senate? Because given how awful the major candidates are, as well as the presence of a far-left candidate taking a large vote from the Dems, I’d say a Conservative/Tea Party candidate might be the outright favorite to win a 4 way race right now.

  • http://truthupfront.blogspot.com jsanzone

    Obviously, and for a number of reasons. But Giannoulias is a much worse choice. I guess this is the card they’ve got to play in IL this year: the lesser of two evils. Sigh.

  • jb13

    I know, but it’s true. Choosing between the lesser of two evils is par for the course in Illinois. We are usually left hoping for a RINO who will simply help a conservative or moderate leaning to the right ascend to majority leader.

  • southernilpat

    The LAST thing we need is some conservative throwing their sour grapes into the ring. They had their chance in primary, and instead of coalescing behind one good conservative candidate they continued their squabbling amongst themselves while Kirk sailed to victory. So be it – Kirk is now the Republican candidate and as such, gets my support. Until his next primary.

  • AceInTX

    This is what happens when we water down the message and appoint people who stand for NOTHING to represent us.

    We can’t nominate people who have moral convictions because it might offend liberal Republicans and libertarians….but then we act surprised when the people who will say anything….do anything…be anything to get elected turn out to be crooks and liars of the worse order.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    What Republican is going to win the general if he couldn’t even win the primary?

  • AceInTX

    he voted for it in the house

  • AceInTX

    It;s frustrating beyond belief but I think we should learn from this. Kirk benefited from the the backing of the establishment starting with McCain and his PAC. That’s a lot of the reason he’s the nominee now.

    All I’m saying is…when you insist on backing people who have no core beliefs and who stand for nothing…people who scoff at the very notion that there is a right and wrong and that there is any principle so important it can’t be compromised, traded or outright betrayed for their own political gain….why is it surprising to anyone when they turn out to be unprincipled crooks and lairs

    see Crist, Specter, Scozzafava and on and on…and the list just keeps growing doesn’t it.

    I broke my own rule about this race because I said when Kirk won the nomination I would shut up and work to do no harm so with that I’ll shut my mouth and leave it there….but it’s getting old saying “Told you so”.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Focus your efforts on beating the Democrats, and not in finding pleasure in Republican difficulties.

    And besides, being down one point with a 4.2 MoE is a rather small deficit. According to this poll there’s a 45% chance that Kirk is even ahead right now.

    Plus we have to consider that the Governor’s race is looking to be a real rout right now, with Blago dragging down his successor. That will likely help Kirk with turnout.

    It’s way, way too soon for you to start saying I told you so. Because if he wins… well…

  • AceInTX
  • AceInTX

    why are you on my back about criticizing Kirk when your post is more critical of him than I am….I’m speaking in general terms about backing unprincipled candidates with Party resources while you are saying “none of these” would beat Kirk if it were on the ballot…you seem to be pretty down on him as well…or am I miss-reading your post?.

  • ronalds

    Mark Kirk is no RINO!! Sure he could be more conservative–I’d like that–but the district he has represented for the past 10 years (North Shore/Chicago suburbs) is somewhat left of center (went for Gore 54-46 in ’00, Kerry 56-44 in ’04 and Obama 60-40). I know cause I live in this district. Illinois is still quite blue! To survive he has had to be a squishy moderate on some issues.

    However, he has been great on spending, voted NO on the Stimulus, always has supported tax cuts, voted NO (and was quite vociferous in his opposition) on Obamacare, strongly opposed Obama’s crazy idea to close Gitmo and move it to a vacant Illinois prison, strongly supports Israel, is strong on terrorism, supported the Iraq war, etc. Guys, he blew it on cap and trade and he is more moderate (not liberal though) on social issues than I’d like, but he’s waaaay better than Giannoulis the crook. Let’s unite behind him and win back this seat!!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m reporting the plain facts of what the poll asked.

    So don’t try to use me to justify your usual backbiting.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I said equally bad things about Giannoulias’s curren tpoll figures.

    You never seem to bother noticing the Democrats. You’re too busy hating Republicans.

  • AceInTX

    I’m not using you to justify anything…and I’ll leave it at that

  • AceInTX

    and it is my goal to defeat the Democrat…the difference between you and I is that I don’t think you can beat the Democrats by becoming the Democrats.

    I didn’t mean to get a flame war started with you Neil…I just made an observation…I’ve already said my goal has been to do no harm to Kirk in this race…and I hope he defeats Giannoulias and tried to beg off this discussion but you seem to want to keep it going with petty digs.

    so…with that…I’m off…I didn’t see you were the poster of this post or I’d have avoided comment…so…with that…I’ll leave off commenting further.

  • proudgop

    1, The attacks on Kirk have been scorch earth. They are attacking his military career for him claiming he received an award when the whole squad received the award? He did receive the award. Now attacking him being a teacher. They are going to just try to purge him anyway they can cause they have mobster as their guy

    We need to stand by Kirk he has been chosen to be the nominee and the attacks on him are disgraceful. He has been a fine congressman, a stellar supporter of Israel and a leader on getting tough with Iran.

    You can’t compare Gov race to this race. Quinn is linked to Blago and is in power while Illinois for whatever reason hasn’t voted a republican at federal level in decades and even then it was over corrupt Braun.

  • shadowtax

    Vote None of the Above! :)

  • Raven

    Giannoulias is a banker who laundered money for the mob to the point that his bank went under. Got that.
    What’s Kirk’s issue?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But he’s accused of fudging his military record.

  • liandro

    …which it was; he says he will not vote for it in the Senate. I believe him, mostly because I can’t see him wanting to take that firm a stand against his party leadership and base voters. Never know, though.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If a conservative candidate couldn’t win the R primary, how would he be a favorite in the general?

  • liandro

    I was given Hultgren, Kirk, and Brady, and they’re all getting my vote. Some I will just be more enthusiastic about then others. I think IL republicans need to master the art of putting primaries behind us when they’re done, uniting behind our candidates, and getting them across the finish line.

  • houstoneagle

    Illinois is one of them.

    If the only rationale you can bring yourself to vote for someone is “lesser of the two evils,” then by all means exercise exceptional prerogative.

    Y’all nominated two exceptional stinkers up there in Fibber land.

  • mbecker908
  • houstoneagle

    From ontheissues.org:

    Support woman?s right to choose; along with family planning. (Sep 2000)

    Voted NO on Constitutionally defining marriage as one-man-one-woman. (Jul 2006) (I actually agree with him on this, but this is the only issue I am liberal on).

    More funding and stricter sentencing for hate crimes. (Apr 2001)

    Voted NO on allowing school prayer during the War on Terror. (Nov 2001)

    Voted YES on $2 billion more for Cash for Clunkers program. (Jul 2009)

    Make EPA into a Cabinet department. (May 2002)

    Rated D by the NRA, indicating a pro-gun control voting record. (Dec 2003)

    Rated 0% by FAIR, indicating a voting record loosening immigration. (Dec 2003)

    But even with all of THAT, that’s not enough to warrant the exceptional circumstance of not supporting him even though he won the primary. What really is the last straw is his repeated lies and exaggerations: winning that annual award when in fact he did not, claiming to have been a preschool teacher when in fact he was not.

    I will not give his candidacy the same kind of imprimatur as given to the many fine folks who really are conservative Republicans who are NOT prone to exaggeration and lies…it would diminish the value of our endorsement if we did.

  • houstoneagle

    and mbecker908 replies merely with name-calling, you know you’re on the right track.

    Thanks for the confirmation, sir.

  • Achance

    just so you can say you didn’t sully your pure conservatism! You people make me want to puke.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Stop using this site to advocate third-party idiocy.

    Signify your understanding of my instruction in your next post.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Naughty, naughty, mbecker. ‘Idiot’ is a loaded term. Next time, just call people like this their proper name of RiNO and be done with it.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • mbecker908

    Raging
    Idiot

    did cover the first two letters of RiNO. And I’m sure I could come up with a family friendly creative “N” and “O”, but on second thought I wouldn’t waste my time on this particular fool.

  • mbecker908

    write a diary on the efficacy of third party voting and really focus on just how voting for a third party teaches Republicans an important lesson. I’m sure you’ll eloquently make your point that standing for principles in the general election trumps all.

    We’re waiting for your genius.

  • aesthete

    for years. How’s that working out for them?

  • aesthete

    If you could get a Republican who cared half as much about small government as he did about the War on Drugs, public morality, or increasing deficits, you’d find a fair amount of support around those parts. Admittedly, the black helicopter folks wouldn’t, but it’s pretty hard to see any viable candidate appealing to them, anyways.

    Libertarians (little “l”) agree on the big issues with conservatives about 85% of the time. It’s amazing how often they get blamed by both parties for all sorts of things, despite the fact that they have no real political power (that they have had no power is partly their own darned fault, but that’s another issue).

  • houstoneagle

    I support wholeheartedly the right of conservative Illinois voters not to vote for someone when it would violate their conscience to do so; for example, an extreme RINO and confirmed liar like Mark Kirk. To advocate for a third party solution was a bridge too far on my part.

    It betrays the weakness of a position when name-calling is the only refutation.

    I’m about as much of a RINO as Mike Pence.

    I will not comment further in this diary entry.

  • mbecker908

    I pointed out that you are a raging idiot, without further commentary, is that the issue of third party support is a closed book here. It’s been argued and the directors and site moderators have a firm policy that third party arguments are not welcome here at any time for any reason. It’s a sure road to getting gacked and I’m guessing Moe and Neil are flipping a coin to see who gets you the next time you pull this insanity.

    The weakness (actually, the stupidity) of your position is demonstrated historically. The only time third party candidates win is when they are long standing incumbents who break from one of the main parties. See VT and CT.

    The typical result for support of a third party is the election of the least favorite candidate of the third party voters. See Bush/Clinton/Perot. Perot voters made a solid statement that they stood for limited government and elected the biggest government candidate. Green Party voters put GWB in the White House in 2000.

    Again, if you really think supporting a third party is a good idea, write a diary. It’ll be fun.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But you always find ways to flake out when the chips are down.

    All talk.

  • streiff

    one more breath of third party here gets you shown the door.

  • streiff

    if you want to ask for reinstatement, hit the contact button.

  • JSobieski

    how in the heck can they actually win an election?

    I encourage all center-right third party candidates to run for the Republican nomination and then to support the Republican nominee.

    I would love to see a Libertarian party, Constitutional party, Conservative party, etc. candidate run and win the Republican nomination in just about any state.

    However, running as a third party candidate in a general election is just about getting democrats elected.

  • realskinny

    who wrote the recommendation for the award, Kirk created and commanded an intell unit in Bosnia. When the award was made, it was to the unit, not just Kirk.
    However, his former CO has said he sees nothing wrong with Kirk’s statements as it was his work that earned the award. The only other problem was an inaccurate claim made on Kirk’s website for two months in 2005 before being taken down.

    The biggest exaggeration appears to be by the media in an attempt to take heat off Blumenthal in Connecticut who lied at least three times on video about serving in Viet Nam or remembering when he “returned from Viet Nam”. Believe me, as one who was also in the USMCR, we sure as hell know the difference.

  • Bill S

    choose wisely.

  • cabanon

    Mike Niecestro is jumping into the race and will run right of Kirk as a conservative independent.

    http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=news/local&id=7500075

    With the Green party candidate running strongly this looks likely to turn into a complete toss up.

  • acat

    The names Judy Topinka and Alan Keyes have a special place in Illinois politics, and it’s important to understand a little of the history in order to understand Mark Kirk.

    Illinois Republicans are a coalition party – there’s downstate social conservatives, suburban social conservatives, suburban fiscal conservatives, and cook county crooks.

    Judy Topinka is of the fiscal conservative faction, as were former governors Jim Edgar and Jim Thompson. For several decades, the fiscal conservative faction bullied the suburban social conservatives into line while the downstate social conservatives voted with the Democrats. (that is how we got Sen. Paul Simon and Gov-candidate Poshard – both blue-dog type Dems) The cook county kleptocrat Republicans don’t care who wins – they’ll cut deals with either Repub or Dem factions – whichever pays more.

    The balance that kept the fiscal conservatives on top shifted at some point, when the Jim Ryan campaign imploded over rumors that he had tried to boink his wife in a semi-public location – the social conservatives went into open revolt. Topinka, then head of the party, brought in Alan Keyes, a sop to the social conservatives, and denied him any party support – resulting in a weak Dem candidate with a thin resume being elected to the Senate. Some of you may have heard of him – Barak Obama ring any bells?

    The multi-sided war in the Illinois republican party really hasn’t gone away – the social conservatives don’t like Kirk, but they’ll tolerate him – the fiscal conservatives don’t seem to think much of governor-candidate Brady, who is from downstate but might support him…

    Kirk won mostly because he organized first, got his name out first, and kept punching away. He’s far from ideal, but I’ll take him, hands down, no reservations, over the mobbed-up banker the Dems put up.

    There’s actually a potential synergy – if Brady can bring out the social conservatives and Kirk can bring out the fiscal conservatives Illinois could look quite Red next spring.

    Mew