« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Neck and Neck in New Mexico

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 24th, 2010 at 02:42 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Denish Martinez

Via Real Clear Politics we now turn to this Magellan Strategies poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. New Mexico is a swingy state, capable of going with either party for Senate, Governor, or President, that swung sharply against Republicans in recent years.

But right now the race for Governor is nearly even.

Magellan shows Republican Susana Martinez so slightly ahead of Democrat Diane Denish 44-43 (MoE 4.2), resulting in the smallest lead probability gap I’ve seen in a poll since I started doing polls at Unlikely Voter: 54/46.

I often like to look at how well the PPACA polls in a state, but Magellan didn’t ask, unfortunately, so I don’t know if that’s helping drive an apparent Republican comeback in the state. I have my suspicions, though.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

Tags: , , , , , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • rdelbov

    leans to the left–53% D per registered voters in a state that only 50% D by registration in May 2010. What that passion gap that was highlighted in another post on this site. This poll finds more democrats.

    I think Mrs. Martinez is even further ahead then this poll shows–ditto for the two GOP nominees. I might add that I also believe that she and Sandoval from nearby Nevada will be two huge successes for the GOP. Yes they are Hispanic but they are also very solid in their political views

  • E Pluribus Unum

    We need our ground game and lawyer teams operating at full capacity in New Mexico.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • redtillimdead

    Do not lean more Democratic this year though. They pretty much lean more Republican.

  • plwinteregg

    Denish has more funds, and the GOP Primary ended with a fair amount of blood, especially among the top 2 of the 5. However, Denish went extremely negative almost before the primary votes were fully counted, and has a ton of baggage having been associated with the incredibly corruption laced Richardson administration and Santa Fe bureaucrats. Her ads attempt to paint a picture that somehow she’s been on a different planet these past years, and has been using some pretty outrageous, unfounded claims against Martinez.
    Sounds like her internal polling isn’t looking good.
    2 of the 3 congressional districts have strong conservative candidates looking to oust the ‘D’s, and the ‘R’s actually have a number of other good candidates for some of the state and local offices. This should help Martinez, as well.
    From a personality standpoint, my guess is Martinez will eat Denish alive in a face-to-face, but until it happens, who knows.
    What this points to is a real opportunity, but not without a good fight.

  • rdelbov

    on campaign contributions so if anyone has a spare million (law changes 11-3-2010) please send it to Susana M. That includes corporate donations.

    No limits at all this year in New Mexico. (someone did give her 1/2 million) last month.

    This was 53% D in this poll on likely voters but I think the likely D number is closer to 44%.

  • reddawgmcm

    Especially in the southern part of the state she was District Attorney for Dona Ana county, home of the second biggest city in the state Las Cruces.She successfully prosecuted several high profile cases including a child abuse case that would turn your stomach. As a native New Mexican now in Idaho I am following this race through updates from my folks who still live in the Land Of Enchantment.

    Winteregg is right from a personality standpoint Martinez will eat Denish alive. Should be an interesting fight to the finish.