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Kansas Senate: Moran up big, Democrats split

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 29th, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Moran Johnston

SurveyUSA polls usually bring a wealth of information to those of us without any sort of subscription, but this poll the Kansas Senate primary was conducted for KWCH and we apparently don’t get to see the usual large tables SurveyUSA churns out.

We do get to see who’s winning and who’s losing though, so let’s check on that.

Republicans have gathered together around two top candidates, Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, with Moran taking a conclusive 55-33 lead (MoE 3.7). I suspect Tiahrt will need some help if he wants a comeback in this race, because I only find a 1% chance he’s ahead if this poll is sound.

As for the Democrats, four candidates are in double figures, making the situation on that side less clear. Lisa Johnston leads at 24 though, ahead of Charles Schollenberger at 16, Robert Conroy at 11, and David Haley at 11 (MoE 5.2). Still, despite the smaller lead and larger MoE, I find Johnston has a 77% chance of being ahead according to this poll.

So the Democrats could have some huge shifts ahead given their four cornered race, but right now the pictured general election matchup of Moran and Johnston seems likely.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • SIConservative

    Who knew?

  • tempest

    Palin, Hannity, Rove endorsed Tiahrt….while Coburn, Thune, DeMint endorsed Moran.

    Tiahrt holds the line on taxes…Moran, not so much. Otherwise, they are about equal.

    SurveyUSA interviewed 2,500 Kansas adults 06/24/10 through 06/27/10.
    -Of them, 2,182 were registered to vote.
    -Of the registered voters:
    -721 were determined to be likely voters in the August 3 Republican Primary
    -364 were determined to be likely voters in the August 3 Democratic Primary

  • chihank

    Mike Pence, Rick Santorum, and James Dobson Tiahrt.

    John McCain and Tom Tancredo backed Moran.

    Both Tiarhrt & Moran are decent candidates. Either one would win the general election. I hope the KS primary doesn’t get as heated as the Utah fight.

  • Alone_in_the_Dotte

    …of this poll. Maybe they concentrated their polling in the 1st District? I feel that if it were this lopsided, Tiahrt would not have pulled 73% of the vote in the Johnson County Picnic Straw Poll on Saturday.

    Todd showed up to the Tax Day Tea Party in KC and was very accessible. Moran hid in Washington for a meaningless vote. (I suspect the vote was scheduled on that day to give Reps cover to not attend Tea Parties.)

  • StandardCandle

    A) one candidate was a poser that just mimicked the other guy to keep the polls close.
    B) that same poser didn’t have the temerity to prevent absolute self-destruction by making false claims about an honest and respected man…

  • rdelbov

    I was going to toss in Dobson.

    This whole race has been a puzzle to me as Kansas’s other Senator was already the “rural” guy. Usually one senator from Kanas is from the rural west and the other has been from one of several urban or suburban areas. Brownback was Topeka area and Tiahrt is Wichita.

    Both of these guys are solid if we had a 100 Morans or 100 Tiahrts in the US senate we would have a very different America

    I have always like Brownback.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    They aren’t predictive of primaries at all. Not even slightly.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    How do endorsements and policy views refute a poll?

    Thune’s endorsements haven’t moved the needle this year as far as I can tell, and in at least one big Senate race Coburn and DeMint were on opposite sides.

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    Ron Paul isn’t President?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The fact that Ron Paul won every straw poll, but only got 3 delegates, just pro ves there was a vast right wing conspiracy against him.

    Obviously.

    I mean, what do you take me for? Somebody who won’t come out and say UBL was behind 9/11 when directly asked to in a debate?

  • tempest

    only 43% of those polled are likely voters in the primary. I guess I should have stated that as the primary point. Both are well respected in KS and both getting big endorsements. Currently, the primary difference between the two is Moran has more than 2x Tiahrt’s money so Tiahrt is forced to run a more negative campaign. I guess we shall see if there is a Palin effect in this race.

    It would be interesting to see the counties where the respondents reside. Wichita will support Tiahrt 70-30 and Moran will get KC area likely by a similar margin. Turnout in these respective area will be key.

    I like them both, but probably leanTiahrt since he has a more solid record on taxes, which is front and center in KS,,,since state legislators just upped the sales tax by 1 cent.

  • Tony_Cruz

    I live in Olathe, and I’ve been seeing A LOTTTT of TV ads by both…both pretty negative.

    Moran’s AD says something like “plus Moran lives here…Todd Tiahrt doesn’t.”

    I don’t get it. And I dare not bring it up with my parents who are terrible Registered Republicans…have have voted Obama into office. ugh.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    A lot of House Reps basically set up housekeeping in DC.

  • Tony_Cruz

    Thanks! That makes a lot of sense.

    I really have no idea who to vote for between the two. They both seem pretty authentically conservative. Its sure made for good KS TV though…

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    a wise and philosophical sage of the Internet Tubes who could inform us all that fire in fact does not melt steel and that Al-CIADA either LIHOP of MIHOP (of course, just kidding).

  • chihank

    Tancredo says those GOP elites and Moran lied to him. So he is backing Tiahrt