Swinging Democracy Corps’ Generic Ballot


Spoiler: 50 seat Republican Gain

House

(H/T to Liberty Central)

So Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did another generic ballot for Democracy Corps, as Democrats try to find messages that will stem the Republican tide.

But how are things looking now, and what does the Swingometer say about it?

This poll of registered voters, likely voters, and “Drop-Off voters” (2008 voters not likely this time around) still doesn’t look good for Democrats. The first bit that jumps out at me is that Drop-Off voters like Democrats. Both Likely and Drop-Off voters agree on the Republican party, giving the party a mean “warm/cool” rating of 46. Democrats though see a split: Drop-Off voters give Democrats a 49, and the Democratic Congress a 47. Likely voters though rate those two a 43 and a 41. Any Democrat counting on a 2008 electorate clone will be disappointed and possibly losing.

And on to the generic ballot itself. Drop-Off voters again will be missed by Democrats: They favor Democrats 49-35. Likely Voters however favor Republicans 48-42. For context, two party splits:

Category D R
2008 Actual 55.6 44.4
GQR 2010 Drop-Off 58.3 41.6
GQR 2010 Likely 46.6 53.3

So per this poll we’re seeing a 17.9 point swing from D+11.2 to R+6.7. And the Swingometer says a 17.9 point swing would win Republicans 50 seats over 2008, to take a 228-207 majority.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter


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21 Comments Leave a comment

You always know how to brighten my day,

earlgrey (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 5:44PM EDT (link)

but in a just world that swing would be much bigger.

I read that cable news ratings (for all networks even CNN, sorry Erick) are down, and ratings for the big Net news shows are way down. I am just wondering if that might explain some of the stabliizing we are seeing in Dems slide, and also play role in higher health care numbers.

Tea Party in Memphis on July 4th (sorry for the shameless plug). I am going to try to have cards made with Cold Warriors The Precinct Project web address to hand out to people.

It's summertime and in a time of uncertainty if you can go play,

Achance (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 5:58PM EDT (link)

you do. People are frightened and they’re turning away from the news and if they have the means, they’re just grilling on the deck, hanging on the boat, camping, whatever they enjoy, and they don’t enjoy watching the news.

In Vino Veritas

The thing is, they're not watching the news ...

acat (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 6:11PM EDT (link)

but they’re still getting facts – they’re just getting transported via social network, not MSNBC. “If something important happens, someone will mention it”.

This is actually an opportunity for clever conservatives to work right around the Mainly Slothful Media and take the argument to the barbecue or to the boat or around the campfire, or to the racetrack…

Mew

——
self-portrait

Caveat Suffragator

 
 
 

They're in big trouble.

NeoKong (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 6:03PM EDT (link)

You know what the best part is….?
They cannot campaign on their own records.
For example. Can Harry Reid go to voters in Nevada crowing about how he pushed through the stimulus and Obamacare ?
To a majority of the public those are swear words.
His own son cannot even use his last name in a campaign ad.
Think about that for a moment.
Can you imagine the doom he felt when a focus group researcher told him that he absolutely must not use his own name because of his father.
Can you imagine the sort of conversations the two have…?

Hey son…

Hey Dad…

How’s your Campaign going son…? Hello

Good…good Dad.

I can come campaign with you if you want son.

(Long pause)
Aaahhh….that sounds really great and all but I aahh… think we’re good…

Hey I noticed you dropped our last name in your campaign ads.

(Ahem..clears throat)
Yeah…about that...aaahhh I just sort of thought Rory sounded good.
You know, short and sweet.

You sure…because I thought of a really great slogan for ya’
I feel the need for Reid…huh…huh…?
Kinda’ got that Top Gun thing going.
Whatcha’ think….?

(Nervous coughing)
Oh..aahhh.. sounds good Da… Da..Dad ?
Oh Dad geez ..I got a call on the other line I gotta go.

B..but ..but …Rory…I gotta’a lot of great …
(Click..) ideas…

The Democrats have basically spent the last year hiding and avoiding their own constituents.
They have insulted them.
They have lied to them.
They have show them their utter contempt for them.
This ain’t gonna’ blow over.
People are mad and they cannot wait to vote.

Follow me on Twitter.

LOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 6:22PM EDT (link)

Yep, I don’t even thinke th NRA endorsement will save him.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

Yes, what is the thinking here? Are they thinking?

izoneguy (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 6:45PM EDT (link)

Do they have any brains left????

So if the NRA rolls out a Reid endorsement….
What voters are they going after? Reid’s supporters
would be anti-gun all the way. Don’t you think that an NRA
endorsement for Reid would turn off those nut roots???

And the NRA is in a lose-lose here….If they support Reid they
just might lose a huge base of conservative candidates and
especially conservative voters….

Now, after I find my NRA card I will be canceling my LIFETIME membership.

Those who had once simpered: “I don’t want to destroy the rich, I only want to seize a little of their surplus to help the poor, just a little, they’ll never miss it!” – then, later, had snapped: “The tycoons can stand being squeezed; they’ve amassed enough to last them for three generations” – then, later, had yelled: “Why should the people suffer while businessmen have reserves to last a year?” – now were screaming: “Why should we starve while some people have reserves to last a week?” – Atlas Shrugged

Ditto that

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Friday, July 2nd at 12:30PM EDT (link)

This is an insane line of thinking that can’t possibly benefit the NRA or their purported major cause (gun rights).

Second; like you, I have not dug up all my NRA paperwork, but when I do it, I’m cancelling my $750 lifetime membership.

I’m done with them, even though today’s (Friday’s) news is they have backed off on that endorsement. What they SHOULD have done was endorse Angle, without even seriously considering doing otherwise.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

 
 
 
 

I hate to be an Eeeyore but...

gamechange11two Thursday, July 1st at 7:20PM EDT (link)

Four months is plenty of time for the Stupid Party to do something…well, stupid (like divide the party on repeal of PPACA).

This is going to be all about voter turnout. Certainly, everyone who voted for McCain (and everybody who stayed home to NOT vote for McCain) is a lock for “anti-incumbent fever”.

Bambi launched his GOTV campaign for the latino community today. His numbers have dwindled some among Hispanic voters since he forgot about immigration reform after the election. (Got stuck on something called health care reform.) He’s also using Kagan to shore up sagging numbers in the Jewish community. Apparently, it’s dawning on folks that he’s no friend of Isreal.

Bambi is entering the midterms in full campaign mode. Why, it’s almost like he never stopped. Very Clintonesque isn’t it?

He’s probably lost 80% of the swing vote, maybe more, and they can be fickle, those independents, which brings us back to my first point. Let’s hope we aren’t about to watch the republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory once again.

All in all, though, I feel good about the numbers these days.

You cannot be an Eyore because this is...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 7:30PM EDT (link)

a MOVEMENT from 20 just after the obamacare THEFT & it keeps moving MY WAY which btw is 80+. They will catch up on the biggest TEA Party of all November 2nd!

This isn’t about the “stupid” party this election is about WE THE PEOPLE and they will win big with a MAJORITY of Conservatives running the joint!

I'm with you, Jaded.

gamechange11two Thursday, July 1st at 7:39PM EDT (link)

I’m saving a couple of fireworks for 11/2. I really hope to be celebrating the TEA Party’s independence day at 10 o’clock election night.

Excdellent Idea

edintexas Friday, July 2nd at 6:25AM EDT (link)

Saving some fireworks for November is an excellent idea. I will only have two factors working against having a great display:

1. The natural Republican tendency to snatch defeat from the jaws; and,

2. Whether the pasture is too dry for fireworks to be safe.

 

Love the idea! nt.

earlgrey (Diary) Friday, July 2nd at 9:16AM EDT (link)
 

Over/under

BlueStateSaint Thursday, July 1st at 7:57PM EDT (link)

I’ve said for close to a year that the over/under for Senate/House pickups by the Republicans comes to 10.5/114.5, and I’ll be taking the “over” on both. When Israel strikes Iran, watch the Obumbler’s response. If it looks anything like Obama is hesitating in supporting Israel, the Dems will lose about 10 to 15 more seats in the House, and 3 to 4 more Senate seats, than my o/u numbers.

And the Obamination will continue to go the way he’s always gone, and he will continue to enrage the American people. He’ll lose not only the presidency in 2012, but the Senate majority of the Republicans will be fillibuster-proof when the elections are all said and done.

14 seats?

Neil Stevens (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 8:54PM EDT (link)

Democrats are only holding 18 that are up this time.

14 means we nearly run the table of those, plus don’t lose any of our own.

No way.

RS contributing editor and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 

WOW that is more agressive then my estimate for the Senate....

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 9:16PM EDT (link)

which is btw 9 and if you are true to those 114 wellllllllll then obama is going to have a really BAD 2 years…..LOL!

Jaded, how do you get to 9?

pilgrim (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 10:03PM EDT (link)

I see the following pickups
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Delaware
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Nevada

I see the following safe seats the Dems will keep
Vermont
Maryland
Hawaii
New York both Shumer & Gillibrand
Oregon
Connecticut

this leaves me questioning
Wisconsin
Washington
California


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

Don't forget our side

Neil Stevens (Diary) Thursday, July 1st at 10:32PM EDT (link)

Ohio, Missouri, and Florida are not gimmies right now.

RS contributing editor and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

Don't forget, the dems will spend every dime they can raise...

gamechange11two Thursday, July 1st at 10:55PM EDT (link)

to re-educate the public about all the great stuff waiting for them in the health care bill. With a compliant media ( receiving marching orders already) any push back from opponents is likely to be muted. This will move some numbers their way by November.

I’m not trying to rain on the parade here, but I’m not setting my sights on the senate.

Well find something to do to help then (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Friday, July 2nd at 1:02AM EDT (link)

RS contributing editor and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

Levin and Stabinow are dead ends here, but...

gamechange11two Friday, July 2nd at 9:28AM EDT (link)

Contribute to RGA………………..check
Contribute to Mike Rogers…….check
Mike Rogers yard sign…………..check
On county GOP email list………check
Attend HCR ballot petition rally…check

To Do

Phones for Mike Rogers
Attend local GOP events
Gubernatorial primaries, vote

Help me out here. What would be productive going into the home stretch? Getting voters to understand that we have a spending problem, not a revenue problem is my primary focus.

Well done sir (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Friday, July 2nd at 2:23PM EDT (link)

RS contributing editor and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder