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What is going on in Kentucky?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 6th, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Paul Conway

With the help of the Real Clear Politics, here are the last few polls of the Kentucky Senate race. PPP: Randal Paul +1. RR: Paul +25. SUSA: Paul +6. RR: Paul +8, Paul +7. And now we have PPP: Tie.

Why is PPP running so much further toward Jack Conway than the other two pollsters?

Now in the primaries the contrarian poll result was so often the right one, but this isn’t a primary with all the sampling issues primaries bring. This is a general election result, which should be much easier to survey.

So why exactly is PPP trending a good 5 or so points toward Conway, when compared with SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports? Rasmussen had Obama job approval at 58-41 against, PPP at 58-37. That’s not the difference.

Rasmussen has Paul’s favorability at 55-38 in favor, while Conway’s stands at 51-36 in favor. PPP shows Paul underwater at 42-34 against, while Conway is at 31-29 in favor. Why the sharp difference? Is it just different definitions of likely voter?

Let’s watch as these polls develop and look for more patterns.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    Do you think it might be a job bid?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    PPP strikes me as honest, though I do wish Kos would hire them. They’d be a HUGE step up in reliability and, as it turns out, integrity.

  • rdelbov

    I put this poll in the trash bin for several reasons

    1. its a registered voter poll–2.5 million registered in KY but only about 50% will vote this fall. So exactly why is it relevant to ask the opinion of registered voters when 50% will not vote. I wonder what part of that 50% will vote in November?

    2. In 2008 47% of voters identified themselves as democrats–this poll has it at 52%–One might ask where is the GOP surge or the hordes of excited GOP voters in this poll? PPP has found a democratic surge in KY

    I don’t believe in taking anything for granted but this poll is junk.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I just would like the evidence myself if I ever make this case myself.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/230765/some-expect-more-heavily-democratic-electorate-2010-2008-i-really-i

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I should have done more than skimmed that. My fault. :-)

    thanks,

  • http://www.reddogreport.com reddogreport

    Rand’s numbers go down proportionate to the number of times he opens his mouth.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    So I definitely agree :-)

  • sailingaway

    They have a larger percentage of Dems by far even than showed up in 2008, a huge Dem voting year, whereas this year it was the GOP in the KY primary who had more voters show up than ever before in a primary in the history of Kentucky.

    PPP acknowledges that it is a Dem polling firm, and has never had Conway far behind Rand Paul, despite what all other polls said. It is trying to influence the debate, is all I can think.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    So is Rasmussen trying to warp the debate when they have NCsen closer than PPP does?

  • http://truthupfront.blogspot.com jsanzone

    There hasn’t been much indication this cycle that they are biased or anything like R2K. Otherwise, Kentucky is an anomaly, and they might be under-sampling Democrats across certain regions, many of whom are in fact likely to vote for Paul (“conservative Dems” are big in KY)…or maybe as has been mentioned they have a fluky definition of who is a “likely” voter.

    Either way, a Paul victory won’t be easy and that’s been the case all along. But even the anti-Paulites can probably agree that they’d rather see Rand in the Senate than Jack “one tough son of a b*tch” Conway. Right?

  • Swamp_Yankee

    … 6,7,8 in Kentucky? in a GOP year? This shouldnt be a fight.

  • rdelbov

    was 47% D 42% R for state of KY

    They ask if you are republican or democrat and voters self describe.

  • rdelbov

    Yup NRO has the correct number–I got the democratic number right 47% but GOP was 38%

    One hint about KY when 47% of the voters in a state say they are democrats but McCain gets 57% or so —you have to have some conservative democrats in there.

  • earlgrey
  • earlgrey

    Yes there are a lot of dems, but I didn’t think there were that many socialists, which is what the dems have become.

    By the way, San Francisco is banning sugary soft drinks in city vending machines. While I usually stay away from the abortion debate, I think it is weird that you can have an abortion, but not drink regular coke. I am sure this will be a huge success for them as people bring in their own sodas purchased from other sources. sorry for the threadjack.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • rdelbov

    Here’s my take–in three points—very little 1-2-3

    1. Rand is under MSM assault–make no mistake about that. There ain’t nothing wrong with Paul there its just whats to be expected.

    2. Notice how little press there is about Lt Gov Mongiardo? He has endorsed Conway. The rural democratic wing of KY has not made its peace with Conway. I think even conservative sites have not played up the disunity in KY among the democrats.

    3. I struggle now to find a polite way to describe this final point. The KY primary was in early May and the election is in November. Its hard to be intense , angry and ready to fight for six months–campaign frenzy cannot be maintained for six months . You go through a hard fought primary battle and then you sit back and say whew. That intense huddle shutting in Football takes place right before the game not three days before the game. Right now the Paul campaign is raising money-organizing but its too soon for GOTV. So the real test of this campaign, and many others, will be right after labor day. You got those 6000 volunteers and push them out. You start putting out signs-go door to door-you phone people. NV & KY is one reason I don’t sweat polls too much right now because you can’t measure the effect of thousands of people telling close friends-family-neighbors that Paul and Angle are really good. You have TV ad immunity when you thousands of people telling folks that the democrat ads are lies.

    So I don’t sweat KY too much right now.

  • IJB

    The answer to your question, Neil, is – no: the problem here is PPP.

    I’m starting to conclude that PPP’s Senate poll numbers are c**p – they are consistently projecting higher Dem turnout in 2010 than in 2008 (you know who else used to do that? – Research2000! D’oh!!).

    So, to answer your questions, I don’t put much stock into PPP’s NC numbers either: it’s ridiculous that they have a 38%-33% result – there’s no way that’s right in a race with an incumbent running. I don’t care what the margin is – I care that the topline numbers seem completely unbelievable, esp. vs Rasmussen.

    But this election is going to put an end to the Rasmussen vs. PPP debate – either Rasmussen’s model of increased GOP and GOP-leaning voter turnout is correct, or PPP’s “better than 2008 for the Dems” turnout is going to be correct.

    I’ll let you guess which model I think is the correct one… ;)

  • IJB

    For an open seat race, in a GOP year, Paul’s numbers (in Rasmussen) are fine – he’s on track to win that race short a major race-changing gaffe.

    And his margin is likely to increase when he starts advertising in the General, and defining Conway.

    FL, OTOH, is looking increasingly like a total disaster: that’s the one GOP-held seat that I think we’re likeliest to lose – and I think we only have about a month or two (at most) to turn it around or it’ll be too late…

  • tngal

    Why exactly we want KOS to actually move into the realm of reliability and integrity? I mean its not something they were known for before so why confuse the libs. If you start trying to give them facts, logic, truth and reason now it’ll just gum up their thought process.

  • SirGladiator

    Even when they do a poll that shows only 34% of voters have a favorable view of Rand, the Dem still can’t be ahead. The fact that a clear majority actually have a favorable view of Paul according to the Rasmussen poll, the far more accurate poll, makes it clear that Rand is going to win big come election day. Of course we already knew that :) .

    The MSM is trying to turn Rand into this year’s George Allen, the guy who seemingly can’t possibly lose, until the MSM makes it their singular mission in life to defeat him. But this is Kentucky, not Virginia, a state that has far more liberals and government workers. Kentucky isn’t going to be as easy to manipulate as Virginia, this is still Rand’s race to lose, and I’m confident he will run a good, strong race just like he did in the primary, and win this thing pretty easily.

  • http://rhymeswithright.mu.nu Rhymes With Right

    They have the gubernatorial race tied, while everyone else had Perry leading White comfortably.

    Either PPP is composed of geniuses who are picking up something that nobody else in the world of polling is finding, or they are so inept that they consistently poll 8-10 points to the Left.

  • constitutionalconservative

    Especially ones like Rand Paul who, along with the occasional first time candidate gaffe, are going to mount a full-frontal assault on the Liberal establishments talking points. When we threaten entrenched power, entrenched power hits back. That’s just how things work.

    But I’m very optimistic Paul is going to win this race, and when he does, he is going to be worth more than a few establishment RINOs who want to play along with business as usual in DC.

    Same thing in Florida, where I have zero regrets about showing loathsome Charlie Crist his walking papers. Guys like that ultimately may win a few elections, but long run they destroy our party’s brand.

    The reality is that if we want to change the culture in Washington we have to take risks and change the debate. That means running more conservative candidates even when a moderate would have been a “safer” choice. We may lose the occasional battle, but in the long run, we will win the war.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    They benefit everyone, and they’re useful to us as much as to them.

    Did you see Kos’s posts? He was publishing everything. They would have been incredibly helpful polls if they weren’t faked.

    In fact by your logic they’ll be more useful to us than to them, due to their resistance to facts :)