Do you think it might be a job bid?

I put this poll in the trash bin for several reasons

1. its a registered voter poll–2.5 million registered in KY but only about 50% will vote this fall. So exactly why is it relevant to ask the opinion of registered voters when 50% will not vote. I wonder what part of that 50% will vote in November?

2. In 2008 47% of voters identified themselves as democrats–this poll has it at 52%–One might ask where is the GOP surge or the hordes of excited GOP voters in this poll? PPP has found a democratic surge in KY

I don’t believe in taking anything for granted but this poll is junk.

Rand’s numbers go down proportionate to the number of times he opens his mouth.

They have a larger percentage of Dems by far even than showed up in 2008, a huge Dem voting year, whereas this year it was the GOP in the KY primary who had more voters show up than ever before in a primary in the history of Kentucky.

PPP acknowledges that it is a Dem polling firm, and has never had Conway far behind Rand Paul, despite what all other polls said. It is trying to influence the debate, is all I can think.

There hasn’t been much indication this cycle that they are biased or anything like R2K. Otherwise, Kentucky is an anomaly, and they might be under-sampling Democrats across certain regions, many of whom are in fact likely to vote for Paul (“conservative Dems” are big in KY)…or maybe as has been mentioned they have a fluky definition of who is a “likely” voter.

Either way, a Paul victory won’t be easy and that’s been the case all along. But even the anti-Paulites can probably agree that they’d rather see Rand in the Senate than Jack “one tough son of a b*tch” Conway. Right?

… 6,7,8 in Kentucky? in a GOP year? This shouldnt be a fight.

Here’s my take–in three points—very little 1-2-3

1. Rand is under MSM assault–make no mistake about that. There ain’t nothing wrong with Paul there its just whats to be expected.

2. Notice how little press there is about Lt Gov Mongiardo? He has endorsed Conway. The rural democratic wing of KY has not made its peace with Conway. I think even conservative sites have not played up the disunity in KY among the democrats.

3. I struggle now to find a polite way to describe this final point. The KY primary was in early May and the election is in November. Its hard to be intense , angry and ready to fight for six months–campaign frenzy cannot be maintained for six months . You go through a hard fought primary battle and then you sit back and say whew. That intense huddle shutting in Football takes place right before the game not three days before the game. Right now the Paul campaign is raising money-organizing but its too soon for GOTV. So the real test of this campaign, and many others, will be right after labor day. You got those 6000 volunteers and push them out. You start putting out signs-go door to door-you phone people. NV & KY is one reason I don’t sweat polls too much right now because you can’t measure the effect of thousands of people telling close friends-family-neighbors that Paul and Angle are really good. You have TV ad immunity when you thousands of people telling folks that the democrat ads are lies.

So I don’t sweat KY too much right now.

Even when they do a poll that shows only 34% of voters have a favorable view of Rand, the Dem still can’t be ahead. The fact that a clear majority actually have a favorable view of Paul according to the Rasmussen poll, the far more accurate poll, makes it clear that Rand is going to win big come election day. Of course we already knew that .

The MSM is trying to turn Rand into this year’s George Allen, the guy who seemingly can’t possibly lose, until the MSM makes it their singular mission in life to defeat him. But this is Kentucky, not Virginia, a state that has far more liberals and government workers. Kentucky isn’t going to be as easy to manipulate as Virginia, this is still Rand’s race to lose, and I’m confident he will run a good, strong race just like he did in the primary, and win this thing pretty easily.

They have the gubernatorial race tied, while everyone else had Perry leading White comfortably.

Either PPP is composed of geniuses who are picking up something that nobody else in the world of polling is finding, or they are so inept that they consistently poll 8-10 points to the Left.

Especially ones like Rand Paul who, along with the occasional first time candidate gaffe, are going to mount a full-frontal assault on the Liberal establishments talking points. When we threaten entrenched power, entrenched power hits back. That’s just how things work.

But I’m very optimistic Paul is going to win this race, and when he does, he is going to be worth more than a few establishment RINOs who want to play along with business as usual in DC.

Same thing in Florida, where I have zero regrets about showing loathsome Charlie Crist his walking papers. Guys like that ultimately may win a few elections, but long run they destroy our party’s brand.

The reality is that if we want to change the culture in Washington we have to take risks and change the debate. That means running more conservative candidates even when a moderate would have been a “safer” choice. We may lose the occasional battle, but in the long run, we will win the war.