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Fiorina also makes it close in California

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 8th, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

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Fiorina Boxer

Following up on yesterday’s Field release which saw Democrats bleeding the Latino vote in California, this poll of the Senate race brings more personal bad news for Barbara Boxer: her job approval ratings have sunk underwater, joining her personal favorability ratings.

So yes, Barbara Boxer does lead Carly Fiorina 47-44 in the poll (MoE 3.2), making it two straight results that the race’s margin was within the MoE, and giving Boxer a 69% chance of a lead by my math. But up until last time, Field’s results had California approving of her job as Senator. That is no longer the case, as Disapproval is now on top 43-42, and is as high as 48% among Field’s likely voters.

Meanwhile Carly Fiorina is steadily defining herself in the state, and also has the money to be on the air where she wants, when she wants, as she proved during her ad blitz leading up to the June primary.

Boxer is facing the first serious challenge she’s had since winning her Senate seat in 1992. She’s never had to defend herself and her record as she is now. Will she and her campaign react well, and be able to stop the Fiorina momentum? By November, we’ll learn.

In the last Republican wave in California, Republicans re-elected a Governor, elected an Attorney General, and took majorities in both houses of the state Legislature. The Legislative majorities seem unlikely in this era of the lockdown gerrymander, but this time Republicans just might compensate by electing a Senator.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • rdelbov

    of the Gov poll from the other day from Field. I think its somewhere around 4 to 6% off on GOP turnout. So to my mind I would reverse and say Carly F. is +3 ahead.

    Either way look at those negative numbers for Boxer. 43% approval is Corzine like and how did that work out?

  • IJB

    In the last Republican wave in California, Republicans re-elected a Governor, elected an Attorney General, and took majorities in both houses of the state Legislature.

    If you’re referring to ’94, the GOP absolutely *did not* take a majority in the State Senate – they weren’t even close. They did technically go to 41-39 in the State Assembly, that’s true.

    But I don’t think the GOP has ever had a majority in the CA State Senate *in my lifetime*…

  • Mason_Conservative

    am I the only one who thinks that Carly has been pretty impressive? She’s got some good fight in her, which you need against a street fighter like Boxer.

  • teapartypatriot

    Looks like a few lunatic-left EVEN in morally, ethically, socially, politically and economically bankrupt CA are finally starting to pull their heads out and realize that there is nothing worse than a d-crat socialist.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    That won her points with me.

  • IJB

    …From June 22 were very encouraging – the GOP candidate got 49.4% of the vote, well ahead of horrible John Laird the Dem running for CA-15.

    It looks to me like we’ll hold CA-15, which will keep the GOP at 15 in the CA State Senate going into November, where we might get a chance to up that to 17!…

  • student

    Boxer is an embarrassment to watch on TV in her Congressional role. Her sense of self-satisfied sanctimonious superiority combined with the contrast of her vapid, uninformed, thoughtless comments and complete inability to reason makes it quite clear that she is way out of her depth. She would have a strain running a 7-11 let alone being a Senator for a state badly in need of political leadership and rational representation.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I could be misremembering but I thought we did.

  • crosley

    I’m glad she won the primary, and I really think she’s got an excellent chance at knocking off Boxer.

    California is one of those areas that I’m close to completely writing off. It seems the only Republicans that can get elected are worthless anyway. I’m hoping a Fiorina win is a sign they’ve turned the corner.

    If the incredibly caustic and abrasive Barbara Boxer wins against a formidable and well-funded Republican like Fiorina in this environment, I’m wondering if the state is simply a lost cause for conservatives.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Thank you.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That’s gutsy and far outside of the conventional wisdom of how to be a candidate in an unfriendly constituency.

  • Tbone

    all it has to do is block vote for Democrats.

    I think the Latino community may be able to understand the problems that presents.

  • izoneguy

    when the two large minority groups start the battle for the government cheese?

    How long will it take before the zero liability voter overrun the producing voters?

    When that happens the money will run out. As the government will be unable to borrow anymore…..running the printing presses 24/7 will only take you so far…..

    We are headed here:

    http://www.cato.org/zimbabwe

  • IJB

    This is the best I could come up with, but it tracks with what I remember: 17R-21D and 2 I’s that caucused with the Dems from 95-97.

    I think 17 R is about the ‘high water mark’ we’ve hit in the CA State Senate for decades, which is why I think it’s significant that we might get back to 17 this year…

  • Tbone

    to be far more interested in jobs than free cheese. The Republicans need to keep that concept in mind.

  • izoneguy

    The Republicans need to broadcast 24/7 in Spanish on every spanish language channel about how the GOP are more interested in “creating the conditions” for job growth instead of using tax payer money to fund dead-end government jobs.

  • Tony_Cruz

    Wow. I was watching some videos of her today and she started gaining A LOT more of my respect in the way she was handling her self.

    But that makes me really wish I was in Cali to vote for her. Wow. That’s gutsy!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That community is not poisoned with a massive victim mentality from the after effects of slavery, the way a certain other community is.

    We need to win them by addressing their issues just like any other voters.

    And amnesty isn’t it, by definition.

  • chihank

    Boxer has faced positive political climate and wimpy opponents. This time, Boxer faces a 1st tier opponent and unfavorable political climate. It would really make my day if Boxer loses.

  • acat
  • cactusjack

    got it half a year ago when they called out O-bomber not as a Stalin, not as a Hitler, but as…a Mussolini. Our economy is very much now similar to the early stages of fascist installation in Italy in the 1920′s. And a lasting effect Mussolini left on Italy, even after he was gone, is the same I predict we start seeing if Obama goes on- that is, a big part of the economy, even for goods and services, goes completely underground. In Italy even in late 20th century it was estimated about 1/3 of their GDP economy was unreported, off the books, etc. Other nations may have joked about it, but it is survival and how one survives a Fascist takeover, and – Job 1 – feeds one’s family. I have lived and worked in South Texas and I know no culture or group that rates that priority any higher than the Hispanics – Tejanos. You are dead on, izoneguy.

  • proudgop

    Go Carly knock the wicked witch off her pedestal finally

    That said the poll indicates one worry that Boxer is leading with Independents. I still think Carly needs to get some ads showcasing herself in a lighter way. Start working those independents and let them come off liking Fiorina.

  • http://erickbrockway.wordpress.com/ Erick Brockway
  • JoeG

    Yes, she’s got fight. I still have my reservations on policy, but she won’t be a pushover.

    She is very smart so she’ll find the other side’s holes and won’t be afraid to attack where the other side is vulnerable.