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Swinging the Rasmussen Generic Ballot

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 13th, 2010 at 08:30 AM  | 

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House

Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.

The last time we checked on the Rasmussen Generic, Republicans were projected to gain 60 seats in the House.

The Democrats have gotten closer since last month, though, so let’s see what the damage is to Republican hopes:

Category D R
2008 two party split 56 44
Rasmussen two party split June 6 44 56
Rasmussen two party split July 11 46 54

So the swing from 2008 is now from a D+12 to an R+8, or a 20 point swing, down 4 from early June*. A 20 point swing toward the Republicans carried into every district from 2008 would yield a 57 seat Republican gain from that year, and a 235-200 majority.

So the news is better for Democrats, but not what one might call good.

* Last time I had it 22 points, not 24, due to a difference in rounding of the 2008 two party split.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • rdelbov

    come November.

    1. Candidates–can’t play the game without players in the field. There has been numerous candidates here interviewed by Moe or others that have really impressed me. I think perhaps other then Walsh in IL8 we have had a series of great nominees who have won primaries.

    2. Money–not a beat all end all but money is crucial. In Gov races we have either matched or unraised the democrats. The same for senate races–right now perhaps only in WA-NV are we at a serious money disadvantage. The picture is a little less clear in house races but apparently at this stage our candidates have raised enough money to be competitve. Generic ballot advantage is sweet but if you get outspent 10-1 it might not matter. I point to small donors that have fueled GOP fundraising so far this year. We need a 1 million small donors to put $100 to fund these races. I think that is what it will come down to. The voters are there we just need to fund our candidates.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Optimism tends to bring good recruiting and good fund raising.

    We of the base have to show up, and have to give, but it’s ag ood year to do those things.

  • wilfranc

    I am worried about the Benishek/Allen primary matchup in MI 1.
    I think Allen is picking up steam and is pretty much a career politician.

    If Allen wins, I am thinking of voting Dem or 3rd party, throwing the district to the Dems again. I would rather things go to hell under a Dem than a Republican, because with RINOs it will.

    Those toss ups depend on the Republican candidate, and those hoping to gain purely from the Dems mis steps should think twice.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Say hi to Arlen Specter and Charlie Crist for me.

  • rdelbov

    is huge for fundraising–look at Rubio & Toomey who had great quarters.

    All this talk about the GOP winning the house will also help raise money.

    I really like Dan B. in MI1-urge all to vote for him. I don’t think you have to be a career pol to win a congressional seat. He is an Upper P. (Allen is not) and that’s a huge help to him. Get those grassroots going.

  • Tbone

    are mutually exclusive. How about you just not vote for anyone ever again? That way at least you can avoid stupidity in your political life.

  • earlgrey

    Don’t get me wrong despite my activism, my mom will disown me if I vote for a D, but what good is an R like Scott Brown who just rubber stamps the Obama agenda? This was his first chance to stop the Obama agenda and he blew it. Worse, he put another R on this horrible financial reform bill.

    How do we convince the public that getting rid of dems will fix Washington, if the Rs keeping going along with them?

    At least with a Dem, you know what you are getting.

    I won’t ever vote D, but right now I am regretting my support of Brown. I’m looking forward to getting another email/mailing from his campaign asking for $$.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If you claim to be a Republican but don’t back the Republican in the general, you’re a RiNO. Period.

    If you don’t like the nominees, try harder in the primary next time.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • cwilson

    you never get a choice between your perfect candidate and a dastardly devilish democrat — unless you, yourself, are the candidate.

    Every election is a choice between two alternatives. It does no good to vote for the other team, to send “your team” a message. The primary is Message-Sending-Time, not the General.

    And if you REALLY want to influence how those primaries go…become a Precinct Committee(person).

    Even given Brown’s recent alliance with the Maine Moron Twins, he’s better than Coakley would have been. At least he voted against the health care bill, and his opposition forced Pelosi and Reid into weird and publicly disgusting abuses of power like even *considering* “deem and pass”. Eventually, Brown’s opposition forced the House to pass the Senate bill, rather than the other way around. And the Senate bill was pure anathema to the hard left, so now they are almost as upset with Pelosi/Obama/Reid as the right.

    That’s a good thing.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • redcometchar2010

    NRO has a good piece in the Corner I believe detailing their disappointment with Scott Brown on his vote, bt ultimately giving him a pass on this vote. Basically, they argue that if (and with this administration more like when) another financial panic occurs, Brown will have something to go back to his liberal constituents and say, “Don’t blame me, I was for reform, blame…” They say it was a decent strategic move and I can understand it even though I disagree with it. As a conservative I try to find and support the most viably conservative candidates around and I am prepared to give A LOT of leeway to candidates in the northeast, hence my support for Castle in Delaware and Brown in New Jersey. I have very few litmus tests, the only two at the moment: Obamacare and partial-birth abortion. If you don’t support repealing the former and if you don’t vote against the latter than you are persona non grata to me. As to what I can tell, Brown would have been the 41st vote against Obamacare and is against partial birth abortion so he is OK.

  • earlgrey

    what exactly will they blaem the financial meltdown on? I got it, the republicans.

  • rdelbov

    Here’s a partial list of what Scott Brown has helped to stop and in some cases his voter was crucial

    Doctor Fix for Medicare–$10 billion per month(you can say for ever)
    Unemployment benefits extension(3 billion per month)
    Cobra benefits extension(2 billion per month)
    Cap & Trade (the cost to America is more I can count)
    Imigration reform(What price America for obama amnesty reform)
    Stimulus III
    Stimulus IV
    Stimulus V(there are three different stimulus bills totally over 200 Billion)
    The “lets keep teachers working act-(26 billion to keep 300K teachers working)

    Has anyone noticed what has passed sinc Brown was sworn in? HC was passed using reconciliation–There was one tax cut plan passed (new hires allowed employees to get tax credits) and that’s it. I estimate that Brown has stopped 500 billion in spending in 2010-2011-2012 plus with Cap/Trade & Immigration reform killed we actually have an American future.

    So why exactly are we wailing on Scott Brown? 41 votes guys has killed a lot of bad stuff.

  • earlgrey
  • Scope

    First, the Senate passed a 6 month extension for the Doc Fix, by unanimous consent back in June. If one Republican Senator objected to it’s passage it would have required the full 60 votes. Scott Brown did not object, and either did any other Republican.

    I believe that the unemployment extension, Cobra extension and the Teachers union benefits were all a part of the same bill, as well as the Doc Fix, until the Doc Fix was pulled out and voted on as I said above as a stand alone. It will be back, and we will have the opportunity to see how Brown votes.

    As to Cap and Trade, and, the Comprehensive Immigration legislation, those bills have not yet come up in the Senate to vote on. I’m not sure how you can say Brown stopped them when the legislation hasn’t even yet been presented. Again, we will see what Brown does with those issues, which will probably come up in the lame duck session. Up until a few weeks ago Brown was not voting for the Fin. Reform bill, but, now he is. He said in a radio interview recently that Tim Geithner called him twice to discuss the bill. We will see what Brown does when his fellow Mass. Senator Kerry calls him and begs him to support the Global Warming bill. My money is on he folds.

  • rdelbov

    that Cap/Trade and Immigration reform has not come up. Scott Brown is #41. The democrats could force a bill to the floor-Nelson-Landrieu-Lincoln could say let’s discuss but then vote against but its still passes 52-48 or whatever. Scott Brown and the GOP 40 says unless there is a fair process we don’t move forward. Well none of that stuff passes with a fair process. So that is done.

    As to the other matters lets be completely fair its very-very complicated. The democrats were democrats were doing a month to month unamious consent fix on Doc/unemployment/cobra and this cost around 12 billion or so per month. Jim Bunning stopped it one month but now the GOP says fund it. Brown’s idea was to spend “Stimulus I” money on it as there is some $400 billion of Stimulus I that is unspent. That idea did not fly.

    So Doc Fix/unemployment benefits/Cobra has been broke into three different packages. Brown and others voted for a six month Doc Fix that was paid for various items–it was paid per paygo rules. Everyone agrees we need Doc Fix but the GOP wants it paid for. My understanding is that “stand alone Doc/Fix” is dead in the house as Pelosi wants to tie Doc Fix to unemployment and Cobra extensions. Unemployment & Cobra extentions are dead in the senate because they are not paid for.

    I do think-since you did not disagree with me-that Brown deserves kudos for stopping the three stimulus packages plus the lets keep the teachers working bill. Plus I forgot that the democrats want a 30 billion bill to bailout the states on Medicare costs. All these bills have died.

    I understand the point about the lameduck session and I have heard people say “McCain-Bennett-Brown-Snowe_Collins-Voinovich-Graham” are all going to cave and Immigration plus Cap/Trade are going to be passed. My crystal ball does see that far in advance. I personally think that after the democrats get their whipping in November that the 20 or so democratic senators up in Nov 2012 are going be unwilling to ram things through.

    On a finer point of process look for the GOP to absolutely delay everything they can right now. So no budget-no spending bills-very few confirmations-no other bills will be taken up without a huge fight. So come lameduck time there will be a huge backlog of things to do. Schumer/Durbin (or whoever the new D leader will be) will not want to poison the well for their Jan 2011 term as leader by ramming stuff through. I think Brown and the other GOP types hold firm

  • callawyn

    If a RINO wins the primary, we’re all much better off with a RINO winning the general than a Dem.

    Congressmen vote with their party the vast majority of the time. They want party support for re-election and for getting on preferred committees. There can be tremendous pressure from the party to vote the party line on an important issue.

    Raw #’s of Congressmen/Senators are important too. The numbers alone determine control of each House. They also determine # of members sitting on each committee and who the committee chairman is. This is HUGE. Look at the damage being done by Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Baucus, etc, etc, etc. If you regain control of the House or Senate, you get control of all the Chairman positions in every commitee.

    Who would you rather have as Speaker of the House, Pelosi or Boehner? Who would you rather have as Senate Majority leader, Harry Reid (or Chuck Shumer if Reid loses but the D’s keep control of the Senate), or a Republican?

    There’s a lot more at stake than the positions/character of an individual representative. I’m sure others on here could go on ad nauseum on this topic. Suffice to say: Conservative in the Primary, Republican in the general election even if you have to hold your nose and vote for a RINO and this country will be a whole lot better off.

  • callawyn

    As Biden would say. This is a huge bill and will have a massive, and hugely detrimental effect on not just the economy but also our society as a whole, until it is repealed (if ever).

    I agree with your points that Brown has stopped some ugly bills, and his mere presence has likely prevented worse from happening (losing that 60th D was huge).

    BUT, this is NOT the kind of bill anyone should get a pass on. It may not be as horrible as Obamacare, but its not far behind. Preventing this bill from becoming law is well worth the potential risk of losing a seat later on.

    Also, do you really think the D’s won’t blame the R’s regardless of when or how the next economic crisis occurs, and regardless of how anyone votes, and that the media will parrot their ridiculously transparent lies? If you have any doubts on this score, let me just remind you of how Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Franklin Raines, etc. have all escaped any blame from the ‘MSM’ over the collapse of the housing market. Its ‘Bush’s fault’, Obama “inherited it”.

    If you’re going to get blamed anyway, at least have the cojones to prevent abominations like this from becoming the law of the land.

  • rdelbov

    is a truely truely ugly bill–no doubt about it. I think you and I agree that its not as bad as Obamacare and not as bad as Cap/Trade. I oppose it 100%.

    Let me be clear that Dodd-Frank mostly deals with heavily regulated industries like the Banking business that is already heavily controlled by the government. Think FDIC.

    I hate that Fannie and Freddie are not addressed.

    I think he could find some reason to oppose it.

    maybe he still will.

  • Scope

    about future legislation, and how Brown will vote. First of all the Cap and Trade legislation and the Amnesty legislation has not come up for many many more reasons other than Scott Brown. I don’t buy the 41st vote schtick because there are 41 R’s that can all go whatever way they choose. Brown promoted himself, or others promoted him as the 41st vote against Obamacare, long after it was obvious that it would never never go back to the Senate. Before Brown, Reid had to make ever deal known to man to get it through, Reid and O would never have allowed it back into the Senate, only to have to make more deals to get it through. That was a given.

    Global Warming has been drastically stalled because it has been proven to be a fraud. The Global Warming crowd, and the green economy crowd have been seriously damaged, but those like Kerry are still trying.

    As to Amnesty, the O himself has claimed that there is no support for it in Congress at this time. The AZ lawsuit has only exascerbated the problem for the Dems. Please be honest and stop trying to give your guy credit for things he really has not had any part in.

    I don’t think that I am on the same page with you on the R’s wanting to request that the D’s be fair, and utilize some of there ideas. Oh for sure there are some, and Brown is more than willing to stick his arm across the aisle to tweak the D’s really bad legislation, and make it a tad better, and I mean a dang tad.

    Brown won his election with half the voters wanting him to make the D’s policies better, and, the other half wanted him to stop the O agenda in it’s tracks. The Fin. Reform bill does not stop the Bill in it’s tracks. Brown has also voted for ever single Obama Federal Judge appointment made, and, there is no question his nominations have been activist Judges. See Sotomayor and recently Kagan., to see where is judical preferences lie.

    I realize that you are a big big Brown supporter, and that you are trying to put lipstick on a pig, but, at the end of the day the pig still squeals like a pig.

  • Scope

    that at the end of the day, Brown loses one half of his base on the right, or, he loses one half of his base on the left. I don’t predict a great future for Brown. Brown has been an anomally.

  • Scope

    than I have some waterfront property in AZ to sell you. Or better yet, how about Brown takes window number 1 to see what is behind the real bill. Didn’t Dodd say that, as in Ocare, you will have to pass it to see what is in it. I really don’t believe anyone can speak to the legislation at this time, with any knowledge. Brown, Snowe and Collins, are voting on a blind bill, pure and simple.

  • callawyn

    Brown may yet turn out to be a principled Conservative, he may be turn out to be a squishy RINO. He should be bombarded with information to convince him to vote against this. Top 3 horrible things Frank/Dodd will do, top 10 horrible things it will do, top 100 horrible things it will do, and debunk the flimsy myths being spun in support of it.

    If he actually votes for it, he should get hammered by conservatives/teaparty folks, for having done so. Do it respectfully and with facts and logic. Convince him why its such an abomination and make him realize why voting for it is such a huge mistake.

    If he continues to disappoint, threaten to, then actually carry out the threat, to find an actually conservative to run against him in the primary. He ran and won on a Conservative platform, in Massachusetts. No reason an actual conservative can’t do the same.

    The Maine ladies have to go. The Republican convention in Maine this year should make it clear that they are considerably to the left of their party, and are probably a fair bit left of the electorate in their state. Lets not forget that Obamacare wouldn’t have made it out of committee in the Senate but for the vote of a Maine RINO who felt it necessary and ‘right’ to ‘move the process along’ or some such nonsense, and now they appear to both be on board with this Frank/Dodd nightmare.

    If the party leadership actually cared about the principles the party supposedly stands for, they’d be agressively seeking candidates to run against these ladies in the next primaries they face. But, of course, they’ll do no such thing and instead back them against any Tea Party backed Conservatives that might appear, if any. Is ANYONE looking to find such a Conservative candidate to defeat either of these ladies in the primary?