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Incumbency Matters: The Joseph Cao story

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 14th, 2010 at 11:30 AM  | 

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Jefferson Cao

Plug -2.8 into the Swingometer and you’ll see 5 districts swing. Louisiana’s second district was the fifth closest seat won by a Republican in 2008, and that Republican was Joseph Cao. He beat William Jefferson, the now-convicted felon who received bribes and kept the cash hidden in his freezer.

By election day Jefferson had already been caught, and the money had already been found. Why was the election so close? Incumbency matters.

Zoom ahead to the present. Most analysts have assumed Cao would at best have a difficult race this year, and at worst be crushed by the next Democrat on the ballot. Well, we now have a name for the most likely Democrat to face Cao in November: Cedric Richmond. So pollster Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight took a look at the race.

That poll shows Cao almost doubling Richmond’s support, putting him ahead 51-26 (MoE 5). Even this early in the cycle, I’m amazed that a Republican in such a left-leaning district could poll over 50%, even if he’s working hard to keep his constituents happy and earning 54-9 (fifty-four to nine) favorable-unfavorable split. Incumbency matters.

All is not good news for Cao, though. Kennedy is making a specific assumption in this poll: He believes that, says Hotline, “turnout among black voters will top out at 57%” and weighted the results accordingly. So whether we believe this poll depends heavily on whether we believe that assumption.

For reference, Congressional Quarterly says that 64% of the district identifies as black. 57% would be under-representative, but not unreasonably so given the historically low turnout of that group in that region.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • IJB

    Until I see more than one poll showing Cao at >50%, I’m not buying it for a minute.

    These poll results don’t pass the “smell” test, AFAIAC – my expectation is still that Cao loses, esp. now that the D’s have managed to clear out all the Indies running in this race.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    My apologies to the two who commented in this thread.

    I was incredibly clumsy and accidentally deleted them when I was trying to reply.

    So sorry. Please restore them if you want.

    thanks,

  • IJB

    If so, I’ll take it in pie!! :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I was told there would be punch and pie.

  • rdelbov

    can do it. Post Katrina who knows how to poll this district?

  • redtillimdead

    But he is very valuable. Remember, Cao is one less vote for Pelosi. Richmond or LaFonta is one more vote for Nancy Pelosi.

  • thelibrul

    I don’t know about that poll, which was just released but is from early June. And I wonder what the result is without that assumption.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I seemed to have missed where Hotline said that?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Am I reading your username right?

  • redtillimdead

    The poll was taken for the campaign according to the Hotline’s headline. Also, the poll is good news for Cao as far as black’s go. The pollster says he is “99% sure” black turnout will be lower than 57%, but he kept it at that in the poll so people took it seriously.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I read the meat and overlooked the headline.

  • rick554

    Joesph Cao cast important votes in the House. His vote against obama care ,against his own familie’s wishes, were the votes of a Patriot and a Hero.
    This Man is a Vietnamese boat kid that made his way from the deck of an LST to the halls of Congress. He has embraced the American dream for all of us.
    I have, and will continue to, support Joseph Cao , and I hope all you RedStaters will too.

  • thelibrul

    My views depend on the subject.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If you want to continue posting you might not want to go around objecting to good news for Republicans.

  • thelibrul

    Are pretty straight forward. I actually misread your post and thought you knew it was an internal poll. I’m actually pretty conservative on fiscal and deficit issues, and on social issues it varies. I’m not on this site for a fight, I’m on it because I like politics and politically affiliated legal issues.

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …Cao isn’t going to get any black votes in that district.

    What he needed was an independent to run who could split the black vote. That didn’t happen.

    While I’d love to see him win – he’s a RINO but compared to Richmond and Juan LaFonta he’s a veritable Calvin Coolidge – he’s got a huge uphill fight.

    Richmond has a reputation in the state legislature as an unmitigated crook, though, so it’s possible Cao can turn up some oppo research after the primary that could paint him as Dollar Bill, Jr. That’s his best shot at winning.

  • redtillimdead

    Black voters elected a white man mayor and voted for a white man for gov (Georges). Cao has been good in his outreach to black voters. However, which Richmond steps up the racebaiting (he has started) I think he will go up. I’m hoping Cao seizes on Richmond’s donation to William Jefferson on August 25th 2006, just 3 months after the money was found in his freezer and he was facing a strong primary challenge. I also know who Richmond’s roll model is: Nikki Tinker (look her up) whom he gave 1k to in 2006. Richmond’s whole campaign is based on the fact that he is black and Cao is not.

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …is the troglodytes at the DCCC will get involved and pour money into the campaign and you will see the most incredible filth spewed out onto the airwaves you’ve ever seen.

    You will also see the street money deployed in a style that would make a Landrieu blush.

    That having been said, if the poll has any validity at all and Cao can get a third of the black vote, he can perhaps eke out a victory. Turnout in the black community won’t be the 64 percent of voter registration, because nothing else on the ballot will generate much interest. Melancon certainly won’t turn out the black vote in the Senate race, and the only credible Democrat in the Lieutenant Governor’s race is Butch Gautreaux, who will be lucky to get 10 percent of the vote.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You really think that the DCCC has the money sitting around to pour into seats like LA-2 that Cook rates PVI D+25?\

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …opportunities they have this year – so yeah, I think they’ll do everything they can to get it.

    The race industry establishment, particularly in these parts, is deeply wounded that the Chocolate City is represented by somebody off the reservation. You hear that all the time. The fact that Mitch Landrieu is the mayor of New Orleans right now makes it even worse. They’ll be BEGGING for resources to beat Cao with.

    Not to mention that if they lose this race they will be completely frozen out of the Louisiana House delegation altogether, because right now Melancon is the only Democrat in that group right now and his seat is either going to Hunt Downer or, more likely, Jeff Landry, who are both solid conservative Republicans. So the question becomes whether the DNC wants to vacate Louisiana completely or put resources into LA-2. It’s the only major race they’re in a position to win in this state for the next 3-4 years.

  • letswinsomeelections

    To say Hunt Downer is a conservative or Republican is a joke. He was a liberal Democrat Speaker of the House for years passing massive tax increases, regulations and anti family values bills. Then when he became a Republican just to try and run against and defeat Bobby Jindal, after he lost, he went to work for liberal disastrous Governor Katlhleen Blanco. Downer is a downer.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    Who was, as I recal not a big liberal.(He is now a professor at McNeese.) But that was a looooong time ago. How old is this guy?

  • letswinsomeelections

    Look at Downer’s tax record … he’s a big liberal. He should have stayed a Democrat and not tried to switch to be a Republican just to defeat Bobby Jindal.

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …issues. I’d say he’s OK as a conservative and he would likely be a reliable vote against Obama in the House. I’d be comfortable with him in that seat.

    That said, as I posted above I’m thinking Landry is the likely winner of the primary, and he’s cut from the same cloth as Cassidy, Fleming and Scalise who are SENSATIONAL conservatives in the House.

    Point is, if Cao wins the seat it will mean there are zero House Democrats from Louisiana. The DCCC is either going to mount a last stand with LA-2, or they’ll vacate the state for the foreseeable future – because they really don’t have any wins coming any time soon in the state’s other congressional districts.