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Reid leads, or Mason Dixon understating Angle again?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 16th, 2010 at 11:00 AM  | 

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Angle Reid

In the runup to the Nevada GOP primary, Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review-Journal understated Sharron Angle’s support by 8 points, and cut her 14 point win almost in half to 8.

Now the pair releases their first post-primary poll. Are they gauging Angle’s support accurately this time?

I have to question whether they are. This poll only shows Angle getting 70% of Republicans versus Harry Reid’s 80% of Democrats. That plus Reid’s slim 37-35 (MoE 4) lead among Independents, gives Reid an overall 44-37 advantage in the poll.

The 44 for Reid is slightly higher than his trend in recent months, but is not unreasonable. The 37 for Angle, though, is abnormal. If we look back at the Real Clear Politics trend, Angle has only been below 40 twice: once in a fraudulent Research 2000/Daily Kos poll, and again in an earlier Mason-Dixon/Las Vegas Review-Journal poll.

I certainly don’t blame Democrats for feeling good about this result, but I would caution Republicans not to get too worried until some other pollster shows Angle dipping quite that far.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • proudgop

    Well, Angle is going to be given every negative ad in book and more

    Reid has 9 million COH according to his report yesterday. Angle has about 1.5 COH

    Angle really needs to put some ads out there defining herself ( make herself come ass a sweet mom like fugure)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Come on.

  • Richard Mullins

    So they start to get thin on the Green. Angle just needs to lay low and make Reid blow throw cash.

  • proudgop

    i get that but he has huge advantage financially still and has been defining her when she hasn’t been able to hit back

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think you’re way, way, way overreacting to a poll which has a track record of understating Angle’s support.

    Don’t spook so easily. Nevada is NOT New York. :-)

  • deano64

    bunch of money in to this race. If they aren’t we need to be asking why.

  • redcometchar2010

    Now I haven’t been following this race as closely as others, so if I am mistaken in the facts please correct me. However, Ms. Angle needs to release two ads. The first should be an introductory ad, highlighting who she is and what she stands for, something to get the people of Nevada comfortable with her. The second one needs to be a defense ad explaining a defusing an attack ad Reid has launched against her. There should be plenty to choose from. I would suggest it be her personally explaining and defusing an attack Reid had made against her. She can close the ad by saying, “Harry Reid, bad for jobs, bad for health care, bad for the truth.” or something of that nature. Now some people might say that the second ad would be her playing defense, but it is more of a counter-attack than just defense because it helps even more to undermine Reid’s credibility and lets voters know more about her record. She doesn’t have to respond to every attack, she just needs to respond to one or two over the course of the campaign. Just my two cents.

  • pdawk

    the only reason this is competitive is because the Republicans did a terrible job recruiting candidates, and Sharon Angle is much to flawed to pull in the required independents to win an election. Harry Reid is incredibly unpopular in his home state, is a guy that has taken very liberal positions to satiate Obama, and should be down 15 points to whomever is running.

  • KevinM

    Their management and editorial staff are predominately conservative.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Even this poll shows the fight for independents to be about even, and well within the MoE.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • IJB

    …Is where the NRSC should shoot their wad.

    I don’t think the NRSC needs to worry about OH, PA or MO – those candidates will all have their own cash.

    But NV and FL are two places that the NRSC needs to start spending money (and *lots*) RIGHT NOW.

  • davidabippus

    Karl Rove’s group is stepping up and starting to run some ads against Reid:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HmOOTgjh1A

  • tngal

    Yesterday, Neil you pointed out how Handel was tied with Deal in GA with Ox coming in third according to Rasmussen. Insider Advantage yesterday also came out with a poll showing Handel in the lead with her three opponents near tied far below her. But the figs out yesterday from Mason Dixon had Ox in the lead by 8 pts over Handel. MD says the poll was taken at the same time as Rasmussen was.

    I know Reid’s got more cash and everyone’s smearing Angle, but still you gotta question some of these Mas-Dix numbers.

    (well you don’t HAVE to, but I know Neil you really like to)

  • davidabippus

    Angle has raised $2.3 million in the last month, so she is gaining momentum and can start firing back soon. She WILL defeat Harry Reid.

  • pdawk

    It is wrong and essentially an insult, but I am not going to waste my time trading barbs with you.

    If you read my original post you would note that I blame a complete failure to recruit top level candidates in Nevada as the primary reason Reid may be able to keep his seat. I thought they all sucked.

    To respond to your other post, the fact that it is even with independents is a huge problem in Nevada. To get near 60 in November we need to win big with Independents, especially since that self identified voter block has increased so much over the past few years.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    So I don’t know what you’re going on about.

    The primary is over. Move on.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    They seem to tilt against Angle. Not against Republicans necessarily, but specifically against Angle.

  • RealQuiet

    I call BS. Aside from that, Angle will probably play a few spot ads until going nuclear around Labor Day. She has to build up her coffers for the stretch run. She really doesn’t need to go negative on Reid. Reid’s negatives are through the floor. She just has to tell people what she stands for and what she is going to do. Once she gives voters reasons to vote for her, she’ll do well.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I don’t know who to blame, but something is causing these polls to tilt against Angle.

  • Oz

    Not sure if you read it that way or 60% of independents which is how I read it the first time.

  • Oz

    Hard to tell or it might just be polling sample again.

  • Oz

    It’s not like Reid is popular in Nevada right now (see his son dropping his last name in his Ads).

    And Angle’s “extreme” positions probably wouldn’t seem that extreme to most Republicans (even Nevada Republicans).

    Also, given the independent nature of Nevadans in general, I think they are pretty well done with the Democrats massive government take over.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • Richard Mullins

    and you sir, seem to talk like them. Getting 60% against Reid, that’s stupid talk. Reid is fighting for his job and what Independents there are(morons to exact) are bound to vote against who angers them more. I see why you don’t like being here.

  • IJB

    I can actually believe that a relatively controversial nominee like Angle is only pulling in 70% of GOP’ers currently. (Though if the poll shows anything more than 10% GOP support for Reid, I call “bunk!”)

    What’s unbelievable to me is this poll showing Reid slightly ahead with Indies – I don’t buy that for a minute, so I think this poll is probably bunk…

  • pdawk

    It should have been 50. Regardless, I have no idea why you are being such a jerk.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The primaries are over, but you keep trying to refight them.

    Back the nominee.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Are you implying Harry Reid isn’t controversial? Come on. He gets 80 of his party.

  • proudgop

    via hotline

    “Since June, Angle has lost 9 points among men; 5 points among women; 5 points among populous Clark Co. residents; and 17 points in Washoe Co., home of Reno. Even GOPers are less enthusiastic about Angle after her primary win: 70% say they would vote for her, down from 81% last month.”

    I am not worried but I do think you should look at data every poll provides. Why has she lost so much support in Washoe County? I heard Reno Mayor a Republican has endorsed Reid not sure if this plays into it??

  • IJB

    Dem voters will support Dem candidates like lemmings – they can be embezzlers, rapists, murders: it doesn’t matter, as D voters will support them regardless.

    But there is *no* way Reid is ahead with Indies. That’s just not credible to me.

    And there’s no way Reid would pull over 10% of GOP voters either – that’s just not believable.

  • teapartypatriot

    What’s the result when ILLEGALS are NOT included?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I read the crosstabs. I told you what I think is going on. Do you have anything to say about that?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But Nevada isn’t New York, as I told proudgop. I don’t think it’s safe to assume what they have, they keep.

    Especially after Operation Chaos, mind you.

  • earlgrey

    He held a party on election night for Obama. He attended a local town hall meeting in support of HCR. He is now regretting his support of the O.

    This is what we need. People can and do change, but Republicans have to play offense something that no one has really done since Reagan. I’ll let the experts tell me if I am wrong on the last one.

  • nvrepub

    you can’t watch TV or listen to the radio more than 2 minutes without seeing an ad for a DUI or accident attorney. However, Reid lately has blanketed the airwaves with negative ads on Angle.

    He has one in particular where he uses her own words and cuts her off mid-sentence (that was obvious to me; perhaps not to other voters) saying it’s not her job to bring jobs to the state, she wants to phase out SS & Medicare, etc. etc.

    I wish we had 100 Sharron Angles in the Senate, but part of the problem is she isn’t exactly silver-tongued, and that’s always been my personal concern… I pray she can reverse this slide; her recent money haul should help. But right now Reid is absolutely saturating the airwaves – you can’t get away from it.

  • Coop

    …for Harry Reid. All the handwringers worrying about Sharron Angle – I just don’t get it. There have been 15 polls from five different pollsters in the past 7-8 months, and Harry Reid has averaged between 39-44%. Those numbers are absolutely abysmal for any incumbent, but especially the sitting Majority Leader. Tom Daschle was coming in at 48-49% by this time in the campaign, and he still lost.

    The ONLY people who should be worried at this time are Harry Reid supporters.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If Reid is *cheering* to be at 44, he’s seriously gone wrong.

  • SteveLA

    nvrepub

    How is Angles more hard core social conservative message playing in Vegas? I tend to not view Southern Nevada as all that socially conservative, for the obvious reasons in Sin City, but do tend to view the state in general leading more Libertarian, of the leave me alone sort of place. Throw in that Vegas is a pretty Union town, at least in my dealings with conventions and such, it’s an interesting mix in the general election.

    Is this as much Angles race to loose by going too far to the right on social issues rather than Horrible Harry’s to loose because he sucks so bad?

  • rdelbov

    I junked it in the heap–MOE or not its has Angle at 10% lower then any other poll.

    Geographically the poll results are are just too weird to believe

  • Coop

    … Reid has raised $19 million yet only has $9 million left in the bank. So he’s spent about $10 million attempting to resuscitate his approval rating and destroy Sharron Angle. And the numbers aren’t moving much at all. So I really don’t see Reid’s financial advantage being that big of a factor going forward.

  • thelibrul

    Lower samples, higher MOEs, harder to predict who will likely vote, Angle had the momentum towards the end, etc. I always try to separate the accuracy of primary polling from general elections. But this one is certainly way off from the others. The race has been getting tighter but this is a 10 point swing. But still, Reid can’t and seems to never even get to 45% or above. However, Nevada let’s you choose “none of these” and there is that supposed Tea Party candidate who will likely pull a few percentage points just from the Tea Party label showing up on a ballot.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Which nobody really cares about.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m not arguing with you about the independent figures. I’m just saying the partisan figures can’t be diminished.

  • Vegas_Rick

    The attack adds follow one another duringevery commercial break. Reid must be spending a fortune.

  • Vegas_Rick

    to be “Fair and Balanced” in my opinion. The viewpoint section on Sunday is very conservative. But, the rest of the paper (except the hated liberal rag the SUN) is middle of the road at best. With the use of news services, it even leans slightly left.

  • Vegas_Rick

    That dude was totally debunked.

  • Vegas_Rick

    and Culinary unions. That’s about it.

  • Vegas_Rick

    Here ads are good, but they’re out number by 4 or 5 to 1. There are very large conservative communities in the Las Vegas area. I see anybody but Reid bumper stickers all over the place. But, it’s central and northern Nevada where most conservative live. And they reeeeeally hate Reid.

    Bt the way, don’t let the “Sin city” part color your impressions. Our demographics are similar to anywhere else.

  • SteveLA

    V_R

    Over the years I’ve spent some fair amount of time in Vegas, mostly conventions, some business meeting etc., so I sort of knew what you state…but.

    Guess the real question iIs NV more libertarian leaning or more deep South social conservative leaning? Angle is turning socially conservative right, not sure how that plays against how I view Nevada as more fiscal conservative, keep the government out of personal matters Libertarian, with some strong law and order thrown in….but hey, maybe I have a wrong view of the Silver State.

  • bobojake

    I sent a reveiw of Harry the LIAR Reid shortly after he was on Rusty Humphriy Show and Harry Reid lied again, to the one with the patch a year ago and was asked to remove it from their comment section. THE RJ is like the rest of the LIBERAL MEDIA. Don’t TRUST them. They are not for the best INTEREST of the USA Citizens/voters/taxpayer. I’m sure Rusty would provide the transcrpt of Haryy Reid live LIES.

  • Martin Knight

    … allows the “extremist” narrative to continue being deployed against her without an effective counter the more it becomes calcified and attains the status of being true, especially with the Independents and soft Republicans we simply cannot afford to lose. If they keep hearing “extremist” repeated over and over again and directed only to one side, they’ll start to believe it – that’s just how they are.

    My advice (not that anyone’s asked)?; Angle should begin an ad series with each ad highlighting legislation that Reid and/or his fellow Senate Democrats have or plan to have shepherded through the Senate to the President’s desk and highlight the consequences of each one to the average Nevadan’s pocketbook.

    End each one with a quick explication of Angle’s position on an issue and how it will save you money and an invitation to the viewer to decide whose position is actually “extreme.”

  • thelibrul

    I know the Tea Party came out quick and furious to point out he wasn’t one of them, but I think he’s still on the ballot, right? If so, the point is that there are a lot of low information voters out there who will see “Tea Party” and then just vote for it, because a lot of people haven’t been paying attention, especially when thjs flap ovet that candidate arose, which was over 7 months before the general. Honestly, I think the “none of these candidates” option will be most damaging to Angle’s chances. She’s getting defined very effectively by the opposing side, and that is certainly being reflected in her approval ratings and the tightening in the race. Her money haul might help, but Reid’s got the money and a lot of traditional conservative interest groups might not come out against him, bc they don’t want a more Liberal majority leader. (NRA, I even heard the Club for Growth might stay silent).

  • thelibrul

    he’s trying to make it into a “she’s a worse choice” election, and Angle will need to have better weeks then she’s had since the primary to prevent that.

  • Vegas_Rick
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Last warning: Democrat talking points are not welcome at RedState.

  • thelibrul

    Every election is about one candidate trying to define the other. This one is no different. Sorry to offend?

  • thelibrul

    N/T

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • thelibrul

    NT

  • waxmanlaw

    This race reminds me of New Jersey with Christie. Corzine couldn’t get above 44% and the only way to show him in the lead was to show a high number of third party voters (12-15%) and subtract them from Christie. In the end the third party voters broke towards Christie and he won by 4%.

    The none of the above and third party candidates will not get more than 5% in this race. The key for Angle is to prove herself worthy of being a Senator. Then the undecided and third party vote will come her way. She seems to be a good campaigner and has political experience.

    With a good campaign she should win 50-45-5.

  • waxmanlaw

    According to a fox poll, 83% of Republicans back the party’s candidate. I don’t think that Angle who won 40% in the primary and got the backing of the next two losing candidates is that far below the national average. If anything with the hated Reid on the other side I suspect that Angle will win 95% of Republicans come November.

  • Doc Holliday

    Of course there will be attacks, but we get to attack to, that is how battles work. I am wondering if Nevada went with the wrong person.

  • cactusjack

    get Mike Lee to campaign for her in Clark County. i hope he is available and hope her campaign would let him. It’s good for 2 or 3% of undecideds who are conservative but voted for Dirty Harry last time.

  • proudgop

    I believe they undersampled Republicans now

    They have Gov Race at Sandoval at 47% and Reid at 46%

    Ramussen has Nevada Gov numbers at 57% for Sandoval and 36% for Reid

    so numbers are way off compared for two

    and I relate that to senate Race now where Ramussen has Angle at 46% and Reid at 43%

    so in each case they off by 10 percentage points on each Republican

  • Martin Knight

    The key for Angle is to prove herself worthy of being a Senator.

    There’s a reason why Reid and Obama don’t go more than 30 seconds without using the word “extremist” when talking about Angle. Already, the Press is in full propaganda mode with the convenient “unelectable” “extremist” narrative about her.

    In other words, the other side is busy trying to prove that Angle is unworthy of being a Senator and for some reason, it’s almost as if she’s dozing off in her seat instead of taking the battle to the other side.

  • eburke

    what Reagan did in his debate w/Carter: appear like he/she can do the job. The country *knew* it didn’t like Carter. The only question was, would they look past the ‘extremist’ meme that the media had painted about Reagan. His debate performance reassured them that he wasn’t what he had been portrayed and he destroyed Carter in the last couple weeks of the campaign.

    That is *precisely* what Sharron needs to do: demonstrate that she’s up for the job and Reid’s masssive unfavorable ratings will take care of the rest.