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More good news for Rob Portman

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 21st, 2010 at 02:39 PM  | 

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Portman Fisher

Since I tried to tell Rob Portman his business, and suggested he was emphasizing the wrong issues in his campaign, two polls have come out covering the Ohio Senate race. Both by Rasmussen, the late June poll had Portman up 4, and now Rasmussen’s July poll has Portman up 6.

I clearly picked the wrong moment to speak up!

When Portman, a Republican, not only has a big cash advantage over Democrat Lee Fisher, but a 45-39 (MoE 4.5) poll advantage, he’s positioned well to win in November.

The race surely isn’t over, even if PPP and Quinnipiac also come in with polls that show movement toward Portman, but for the seat that I think Republicans are most likely to lose in November, this is important news.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • http://www.laborunionreport.combrand/brhttp://www.laborunionreport.blogspot.com LaborUnionReport

    http://www.dialbforblog.com/archives/368/frank_gorshin_riddler3.jpg

  • benson1

    (didn’t see that article for some reason) but it seems he grew a pair and instead of the usual political mush his latest political ad really blasted the Democrats on Cap and Trade. I thought he looked decisive (a first) and up for a fight (also a first). I actually contributed to his campaign after seeing the Ad. Lets hope he doesn’t go back into his gosh I hope I can win mode.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • Finrod

    .

  • IJB
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I know the FL polling looks miserable right now, but my personal ratings on the seats we’re most likely to lose are not poll based.

    I worry about OH, MO, *then* FL.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    At one point I’d have put it above FL but I probably put it just below now.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Randal Paul had better get in gear or KY will get on the list.

  • swami7774

    I think this is a year in which relatively weaker candidates could be dragged across the finish line. I think Paul will make it. Not sure about Angle.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I was speaking of the seats we’re defending this year.

  • eburke

    Specter’s lead against Sestak didn’t collapse until the last 3 weeks when Sestak pounded him with the political opportunism meme. That is a death knell in this cycle and once the primary’s over, I expect the Rubio campaign to beat Crist on this like a rented mule.

    When that happens(’cause Rubio’s campaign team has played this whole thing like a Stradivarius) Crist’s number’s will drop like a rock.

  • redneck_hippie

    Specter and Crist provide more examples where ‘RINOs have no base’ is true.

    Graham, too, will fall–by the time his primary rolls around, he’s going to need titanium armour.

  • eburke

    I agree completely, redneck. As far as Lindsey goes, I will pledge my life, sacred honor and whatever fortune I have left in 2014 to see that weasel taken out in the SC GOP primary.

    I’m betting I’m not alone.

  • redneck_hippie
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Our recruitment against McCain’s Batman to Graham’s Robin wasn’t… stellar.

  • IJB

    I’m not worried about KY.

    Unless there’s another major gaffe, Paul will win that seat comfortably, probably by about 10%…

  • ladyimpactohio
  • averagevoterdotcom

    Portman 16K+. Fisher 4K+. not scientific but an interesting barometer of grass-roots support.

    Handel here in GA was near 20K+ fans, whereas Oxendine barely had 4K+ by yesterday’s 4th place finish. Oxendine didn’t even get a colorful ribbon – just a plain ribbon saying “Participant”.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    He was doing better before he opened his mouth.

    If he doesn’t shape up he could get in real trouble.

  • Adjoran

    He has a national funding base now, and a credible challenger will need at least $1-2 million for the primary. Incumbent Senators are notoriously difficult to unseat in South Carolina, none has lost in over half a century at least. We even kept Fritz Hollings (the man who as Governor first raised the Confederate Battle Flag over the Capitol) in office for 25 years after he went DC-Demo-batship crazy.

    And WHO could you recruit? Forget Nikki Haley – she’ll be completing her first term as Governor, but if it went well she will surely stand for reelection, and if it goes poorly she wouldn’t be well positioned to challenge Lindsey anyway. So, who, then?

    I’d suggest outgoing AG Henry McMaster. He finished third in the gubernatorial primary, but endorsed Haley right away and had defended her against the smears from the start. He was also the first state AG to begin legal action against the PPACA insurance mandate. A former US Attorney, he’s not part of the corrupt establishment, but isn’t fully in the reformer camp, either. He has the gravitas to beat Graham if he could be convinced to run, assuming he could raise the money nationally.

  • Adjoran

    Which is why he’s been kept out of sight since his last big gaffe-fest.

  • Martin Knight

    Rubio has significantly more cash on hand to spend on a campaign than anyone who could get on the ballot barring Greene, who is not looking like he’ll be getting on the ballot anyway. So what exactly is he still waiting for?

    Not withstanding that the Democrat in the race is yet to be settled – it could be either Meek, Greene or Crist (if Obama prevails upon the other two to drop out so the party can unite behind him as the de facto candidate) – there is simply no reason to allow Crist to hold a lead long enough to have the punditocracy start publishing articles about his “resurrection” i.e. Newsweak. The typical mush-minded “middle voter” seeing this – i.e. Crist=Underdog – will naturally swing over to him.

    In my opinion, August is when the Rubio campaign must get into gear and start tearing Charlie Crist to pieces. Rubio’s silence has enabled Crist to establish a much larger (even if shaky) base of support with FL voters that want to punish Democrats but like to think of themselves as “Independent.” Note that this includes many registered Republicans (many of whom voted for Obama in 2008) – Rubio should not have allowed Crist to successfully get so many of them to see him as a viable candidate.