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Dudley’s lead confirmed

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 28th, 2010 at 11:00 AM  | 

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Kitzhaber Dudley

From Unlikely Voter: We’re now at three polls in a row, counting the new Rasmussen, that show Chris Dudley ahead of John Kitzhaber in Oregon.

Even without a third party candidate mucking up the poll, the Democrat just can’t pull ahead.

So yes, Dudley still isn’t ahead by much (I show by this poll a 37% chance Kitzhaber is ahead), but I’m sure Oregon Republicans will take the 47-44 lead (MoE 4.5), which unlike the SUSA poll requires no successful third party candidate to engineer that lead.

What may be the key stat though isn’t in the poll. It’s from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Oregon unemployment is at 10.5%, putting the state worse off than 42 others in that statistic. And John Kitzhaber is a member of the party that holds the offices of Governor of Oregon, President of the Oregon Senate, Speaker of the Oregon House, and of course controls the White House and the US Congress. He may be taking party blame for the economy.

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  • rdelbov

    just one comment on the SUSA poll–it had a partisan breakdown of 38D-35R-27I(or other) which exactly matches the party registration numbers for Oregon.

    When you see a GOP candidate ahead without a surge in republican turnout that’s great. I believe nearly everyone expects GOP turnout will exceed democratic turnout.

    I also that RAS shows Dudley up by 10% among indies. That continues a pattern for the republicans in numerous polls.

  • http://www.deadfishwrapper.com wonder95

    I am keeping my fingers crossed here in blue Oregon that we can finally break free of the Democrat party, at least for Governor. Unfortunately, though, Oregon elections are controlled by the libs in the Portland and Eugene hubs (take a look at any county maps from previous elections to see what I mean), and it seems that these hubs have been blindly tied to Dems since Atiyeh was governor. They’re always wanting to raise taxes and are mortified to think that taxpayers should actually be able to keep their money instead of giving it over to the government, so hopefully, some of them are finally waking up to the reality of what havoc the Dem-controlled government has wreaked on us over the past 20+ years.

  • downcold

    the partisan breakdown in 2008 in Merkley’s race was 37D/37I/26 R. So Survey USA’s partisan breakdown is incorrect. I don’t see a huge dropoff in Independent turnout, or any increase in Democratic turnout.

  • rdelbov

    as well that the GOP will see a pickup in turnout/partisan breakdown in November. Poll after poll show the republicans fired up. I might add that 11 states have set midterm primary records for GOP turnout. No state has seen a democratic primary record broke. So maybe the GOP is fired up??

  • downcold

    would say yes. Kitz is running a horrible campaign right now which is energizing Republicans. However, in a state like Oregon, I highly doubt Republicans will have the highest turnout come November. I expect it to be I/R/D, in that order.

  • moderaterepub

    And you should too. He’s a really exciting candidate.

  • kakypat

    It was reported yesterday that Dudley has raised three times more money than Kitz since the primary, and now has more money than Kitz. Too, he’s in the top 5 gubernatorial candidates that the RGA considers to be able to flip from D to R. They will be putting resources into this race, too.

  • lucky364

    Mr. Dudley had the UGLIEST free throw technique ever seen by man. It was so UGLY it made kids cry and beg their parents not to bring them to any more games with the possibility of having to witness such an atrocity.

    Hopefully, the folks in Oregon will get past that. Good luck Mr. Dudley. Don’t use any clips from your NBA days in your campaign ads. Especially anything that was taken while you were “shooting” a free throw.