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The primary heats up in New Hampshire

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 29th, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

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Ayotte Binnie

From Unlikely Voter: The big, scary to Republicans headline over at Hotline is Ayotte’s Unfavorable Ratings Rising in UNH Poll.

I’m sure it’s true, but that’s what happens in contested primaries such as the one right now for Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate race. Right now, Bill Binnie’s fans don’t like Kelly Ayotte much, her fans don’t like him much.

Anyone could have predicted polling shifts like this one in the Granite State Poll of the University of New Hampshire for WMUR. This is exactly what one would expect to see as Ayotte and Binnie trade blows from now to the primary. Hotline points out that Ayotte’s unfavorable ratings have doubled. Yes, that’s true, but when she was only disliked by 14% of the state, and her favorable ratings were approaching triple that at 39%, a doubling isn’t exactly a catastrophe for her.

So now Ayotte’s favorability split stands at 38/28, so she hasn’t actually lost many fans since Binnie surged. She’s just gotten some Binnie fans (or possibly even some Paul Hodes fans watching the other side’s primary) starting to dislike her.

So despite this highlighted doubling of Ayotte’s unfavorability ratings, she still leads Bill Binnie in the new PPP poll 47-14 (Margin of Error 4.81). She also leads Paul Hodes in the UNH/WMUR general election matchup 45-37 (MoE 4.6), which are not the numbers of a collapsing candidate, but rather the signs of a still-leading frontrunner in both the primary and the general.

I’m sure Democrats will still be heartened to see that Kelly Ayotte is not made of teflon and is starting to gain detractors, but the longer she hovers near 50, the more likely she is to be able to gain an outright majority of support in the state, ending the hopes the Democrats have of picking up this seat in a Republican year.

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COMMENTS

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  • rrreaganite

    This thing is getting pretty close to over. Ayotte’s lead is 33 points and growing. Paul Hodes may of cut the lead, but come November he is going to be one sitting duck, just waiting to be picked off.

  • rdelbov

    Ayotte was an absolute crushing blow in this primary. Looks like Haley-Martinez-Handel and now Ayotte get the Palin bear hug on the way to victory.

    47% in a four way primary where she is getting outadvertised 4-1 plus Hodes is doing negative push polls against her. Plus an 8 point GE lead we need more candidates who are in Ayotte’s shape

  • chihank

    The big reason why Ayotte’s negatives are rising is becuase Hodes has been conducting push poll calling which slam Ayotte. Hodes is involving himself in the NH GOP primary in hopes of creating a bloody primary.

    I believe the NH Attorney General has agreed to investigate whether if Hodes’s push polling calls violated NH campaign finance laws.

  • america1st

    . . . I do believe Bill Binnie would be the better Senator. I heartily endorse his zinger: “Kelly Ayotte puts people in jail; I put them in jobs.” We have *WAY* too many lawyers in government at all levels. The people who actually *do* things seldom make the time to take an active role in politics. Which is a shame, because: (1) it takes a lot more talent and drive to build a successful business from scratch than it does to be an attorney and (2) lawyers tend to live in isolation from the truth of daily reality. .

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • proudgop

    I don’ t think any primaries should be past July

    The first in nation state has one of latest primaries in nation for statewide offices and congressional campaigns?

    I hope the bad blood here does not impact our chances for Senate or 2 congressional races

  • NHConservative0227

    Ovide is the only real conservative in this race. Binnie is an ultra liberal leftist and Ayotte is a RINO who supported Sotomayor. I will not ever forget this and those who are concerned about the future of our country should not either.

    As for those who think that Ovide has no chance and it’s only a 2 person race:

    The facts are?a vote for Ovide is not a vote for Binnie?a vote for Ovide is a vote for Ovide. People should remember that Ovide was down 20 points in the ?96 primary against establishment primary opponent Bill Zelif the week before the primary. A week later he beat Zelif by 5 points! The only thing a poll can indicate this far out amongst primary candidates is name recognition. Once people tune in and start learning more about where candidates actually stand on the issues the polls will look much different. We do know that in a head-to-head match-up that Ovide beats Paul Hodes, and that?s the message we need to convey!

    Real conservatives need to utilize blogs like Redstate to get the word out to support Ovide!

  • travelkingnh

    PPP is the only pollster that continues to spew this data from 400+ likely voters (whoever they are) in the GOP primary?. that Ayotte has 47% of the primary vote. As a NH republican activist, I can tell you with no uncertainty that this is completely BOGUS. Yes, she still remains the front runner in the race, but a far more unbiased UNH-WMUR poll (http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_summer_senate072810.pdf ) will tell you that 91% of Republicans and 95% of Independents have not yet decided who to vote for?.and they are the only ones eligible to vote in the GOP primary. Even 70% of the Democrats polled were undecided, and they have only one candidate running?Paul Hodes.

    So, anyone that says this race is over has no clue about NH politics. It will be over in the wee hours of Sept 15th, the day after the ballots go in…….the only poll that counts. I still predict Ovide by a nose.

  • roger138

    Ok not exactly, but republicans in NH are focusing in on one positive about her, just like the Dems did with John Kerry, But they are ignoring her list of problems (Castle doctrine, illegal immigrant, JUA, Richard Brothers, John Lynch, ECT………..) Kelly?s looks good to the casual observer just like Kerry did to the Dems and look, but dig a little deeper and we all saw what happened.

  • irishrebel2000

    It is amazing how Ayotte has failed to take advantage of all the money the Washington elite is pouring into her campaign coffers. She reminds me of Martha Coakley, the Mass AG who lost to Scott Brown… There was no way she could possibly lose Ted Kennedy’s sheet.

    Ayotte supporters are counting on Judd Gregg’s coronation of Ayotte to do the same thing for her in NH. Problem is it is not Judd Gregg’s seat,The senate seat that belongs to the people of NH, not Washington power brokers.

    Washington Democrats backed Jim Craig in a Congressional race against Carol Shea Porter . Porter defeated Craig even though his campaign war chest was 6 times more than Porters.

    You will also notice Ayotte’s handlers are pulling her out of scheduled debates because she is falling in the polls the more people hear her actually speak about issues.

    Her latest gaffe was stating same sex marriage is a states’rights issue. She doesn’t say what to do when the states disagree on the issue..

    I am still wondering why she is considered so tough on crime when the man who murdered the police officer confessed to the crime. Wow, it must have been really tough getting that conviction. Then she plasters the picture of the fallen police officer all over her political ads. Wow, what a sense of decency when you use the murder of a police officer for political gain. I realize her Washington puppeteers are handling her ads and I personally do not think this approach is something she approves of but she must be sweating bullets because the primary is not turning out the way she expected and she is letting the Washington establishment control her campaign.

    What a shame….