From Unlikely Voter: Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues.
I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.
For the House generic ballot, the result we see is 47% for the Republicans, 36% for the Democrats. Republicans split 88-3, Democrats go 84-10, but Independents decide the day by favoring Republicans 43-20. Once we boil it down to a two-party vote, excluding Other candidates and the Undecideds, here’s what we get:
| Category | D | R |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 two party split | 56 | 44 |
| Fox two party split July 28 | 43 | 57 |
This will be among the largest Swingometer results I’ve yet seen since its introduction. Fox/Opinion Dynamics takes us from D+12 in 2008 to R+14 in 2010, for a 26 point swing. When I first glanced at this poll last night, I wondered if it would show a 75 seat gain for Republicans.
So, plugging 26 into the Swingometer, we check and see that it’s not quite 75. No, this poll projects a 67 seat Republican gain, for a 245-190 House. For context, Democrats won a 257-178 House in 2008, making this projected result nearly as lopsided as that big win, and more so than the 233-202 win for Nancy Pelosi in 2006.
Of course, as always, the Swingometer most likely under-projects the actual results should this poll accurately reflect how Americans will vote in November. The Swingometer is a simple tool, and has embedded in it several factors from the 2008 climate such as recruiting and retirements. All the Swingometer does is look at the actual 2008 results in every seat and move them, so where one party recruits better or the other retires more, the Swingometer will likely underproject a wave.
So we might see that R+75 seat gain yet.
Dan McLaughlin
Hunter Baker
Ben Domenech
streetwise_IT
Dan Spencer
JadedByPolitics
Jim Kelly
Now it the time to ramp up, foot to the floor board through Janurary and stop this corrupt mongrel administration illegal EO's outright by Congress.NT
bobojake Friday, July 30th at 12:15PM EDT (link)Speaking of "mongrel," I wonder what would
throwback59 Friday, July 30th at 4:50PM EDT (link)happen if a Republican, even a black one such as Michael Steele, had called African Americans “a mongrel people.”
Actually, I don’t have to wonder, I know exactly what would happen.
More information
stilhdr Friday, July 30th at 12:33PM EDT (link)More information on this would be great to see. I would be interested to see how states and districts break-down. Personally, opinion polls make me nervous, would really like to see more concrete evidence, also to make this better for races to see where changes might be made.
I'll tell you one reason they don't do those breakdowns...
Neil Stevens Friday, July 30th at 12:41PM EDT (link)The Margins of Error blow up for subsamples of a poll like this.
The data would be mostly useless.
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
Current Senate Projection: Republicans +7.
Current House Projection: Republicans +58
Give to the NRCC to fire Nancy Pelosi in November. Become a Precinct Committeeman to fire Michael Steele in December.
Ye Olde Tryranny O' The Small Sample....
Repair_Man_Jack Friday, July 30th at 12:47PM EDT (link)It’s a low down, dirty shame.
“smug doesn’t balance a spreadsheet” -Moe lane
There are polls of some of the House Districts
gemimail Friday, July 30th at 4:04PM EDT (link)There is a list of them here: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=468&Itemid=1311. I notice that the same site ties the results of the generic congressional votes using likely voter samples to not only how many seats the Republicans will gain but which ones. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=496&Itemid=1347.
Can you tell us how this compares with
romeg Friday, July 30th at 12:38PM EDT (link)Karl Rove’s prognostications?
I don't know
Neil Stevens Friday, July 30th at 12:40PM EDT (link)I don’t really pay attention to him.
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
Current Senate Projection: Republicans +7.
Current House Projection: Republicans +58
Give to the NRCC to fire Nancy Pelosi in November. Become a Precinct Committeeman to fire Michael Steele in December.
That's like asking Rasmussen what Gallup shows! nt
californiasam Friday, July 30th at 3:11PM EDT (link)It just keeps getting better and better for us
Scope Friday, July 30th at 12:47PM EDT (link)and worse and worse for the Communists.
Yes, it will be interesting to see where the polls go after the O’s mongrel comment yesterday. I really had no desire to even hear anything about the creeps visit to the beeitches on couch potato daytime TV yesterday, however, that did make my ears perk up. That won’t go over well with as they like to say “his people.” He’s the pres, and he’s black, but, all those lessers are just mongrels.
I’ve been watching RCP polls each day for a good while. In their averaging, they always had more polls of just adults, thank Likely or Registered voters. That seemed to keep his approval number higher. One day he was down maybe .5%, the next day he was up again. For this past week, his disapprovals have overtaken his approvals by the wides margin ever- A-45.8, D-49.3= -3.5, which is still using a majority of polls of just adults. For me, there is a psychology about the number 50. It’s almost there, thankfully.
Another interesting average poll there is the approval/disapproval of Congress. They don’t poll for that as often, but, it finally hit the magic 51% disapproval number.
RCP has also had the R’s polling just slightly higher than the Dems, by a mere tenths of a percent. They now have the R’s ahead by 3.5%.
This is all really great news. Now, it is up to the R’s to keep that dial running to the right, all the way up to November 2010.
A message to President Obama, and Progressives everywhere-
“I won’t insult your intelligence by suggesting that you really believe what you just said.” Wm. F. Buckley, Jr.
“You lie.” Joe Wilson
Proud member of the Achance YAADI (you are a dumb idiot) Club since 2008.
A good way to
rdelbov Friday, July 30th at 1:13PM EDT (link)compare -in my opinion-these generic numbers to actual districts is to look at a poll in specific district. Erick did a post on WI3. This was a 58-41 Obama district and that means +5% over his national numbers.
Yet the re-elect Ron Kind numbers stink plus the generic GOP numbers are good.
So if nationally its +11R on the generic ballot and that nearly matches the numbers in a strong Obama district (58%) then the doom scenerio seems accurate.
Keep the pressure on because ...
kchand Friday, July 30th at 2:22PM EDT (link)November 2, 2010 is national Take-Out-The-Trash day.
——————–
The ‘N’ word is November!
say no to recycling
tngal Friday, July 30th at 4:27PM EDT (link)Absolutely, kchand!. Don’t recycle them, just take out the trash.
( as bumper stickers go,its catchy. Pelosi actually looks like she’s been recycled one too many times)
100-120 seats
congressworksforus Friday, July 30th at 7:17PM EDT (link)This was my projection 2 months ago and I stick by it.
But don’t celebrate too much; I think the Republicans will lose far more “safe” seats than anyone is paying attention too.
Folks like me have had it with both parties. A pox on both their houses.