From Unlikely Voter: When Ron Johnson showed a lead over Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate polling, it could have been a fluky outlier result. The incumbent Democrat could still have been safe.

Rasmussen again has Johnson ahead, though, so that theory is ruled out. The lead is tiny, but looks real.

I call the lead tiny, and the 48-46 (MoE 4.5) advantage Johnson shows is one of the smaller ones there is. By itself it shows a 58/42 split, with Feingold having that 42% chance of being up.

So was the last lead, which shows Johnson up 47-46. It was even tinier, obviously, and managed a 54/46 split. But probabilities multiply. If we combine these two polls, we get an 82% chance Johnson has squeaked ahead.

In this climate, national Democrats and independent progressive groups are already having to pour millions of dollars into unlikely places like California. Is Wisconsin next on that list?

One final note: even with Feingold showing weakness, Dave Westlake is still running markedly behind as Feingold is ahead of him 10 points. Between that and Johnson’s GOP Convention endorsement, I’m about ready to call Johnson the presumptive nominee.