Gallup retreats and I claim victory
From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention.
It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the poll has in just two weeks shown a remarkable 9 point swing toward the GOP.
Where in the week I complained, Democrats were ahead 48-44, projecting only a tiny Republican gain in November and continued control of the chamber by Democrats, now the poll shows Republicans ahead 48-43, which projects a much different result:
|2008 two party split
|Gallup two party split July 19
|Gallup two party split August 2
It’s a complete reversal. The latest results swings the electorate from D+12 to R+6, and that net 18 point swing projects to a 51 seat Republican gain from 2008 in the Swingometer, and a 229-206 Republican majority in the House.
Now don’t try it again, Gallup. We’re watching. The Internet is funny that way.
P.S. Rasmussen has a new generic out, too. It never made a radical turn toward the Democrats, and now has Republicans up 46-38. That translates to a 55-45 two party split, a 22 point swing from 2008, and a 60 seat Republican gain.