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…And Pat Quinn will be bad for Alexi Giannoulias

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 12th, 2010 at 02:00 PM  | 

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Illinois

From Unlikely Voter: The Illinois Senate race is already set to be an ugly war, only distinguished from France 1916 by the lack of chemical warfare. Both candidates are hated and have baggage that is not going to go away. Either one can win, though, judging by the polling I’ve seen.

But if Republicans rally around a surging Bill Brady while Pat Quinn polls as poorly as Alexi Giannoulias, then that will only help Mark Kirk, just as I expect in nearby Wisconsin.

Maybe Quinn is doing badly because Blago is back in the news, but this is just bad. Brady leads 48-35 (MoE 4), and Quinn is down to a negligible 6% chance of leading according to this poll. This is the kind of poll that makes people stop caring about a race, in my personal experience seeing such polls the other way in elections past in California.

And of course, every Democrat who stays home, or likewise for any independent who leans toward the Democrats, is a vote lost to the Senate race. It won’t matter for the Governor, but in a close Senate race, such voter depression could be critical.

Because even more so than Russ Feingold, Alexi Giannoulias needs every excited voter he can muster.

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COMMENTS

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  • http://wadingacross.wordpress.com logus

    All the funnier as it will reflect on Obama indirectly. Bwahahahahah!

  • http://www.theminorityreportblog.com/blog/loren_heal Socrates

    We had a multi-way Gov race between two moderates and several conservatives. Brady squeaked it out over one of the moderates. Brady wasn’t my first choice, but he was my second, and that’s an enthusiastic second.

    Senate candidate Kirk has close to zero base support*.

    But with Brady’s coattails, Kirk should win Senator on turnout, provided we can find enough clothespins.

    ———-
    *John Cornyn should resign from the NRSC.

  • acat

    Quinn was *Never* going to get to the Governors Mansion under his own power. Too bland, not enough of a campaigner, no “fire”. More remora than shark.

    He got there the only way he could – attaching himself to a successful campaigner. My guess is his plan was to run for Governor once Blago quit to run for Senate, but Blago self-destructed first.

    So, we’re left with Quinn, a dirty-by-association milquetoast kind of candidate and campaigner, in a bad year for Dems.

    I’m very optimistic that Brady and Kirk can create some synergies for each other.

    Kirk does appeal more to a segment of Republicans, the socially moderate, fiscally right-leaning folks from the more liberal suburbs… as a group we call ‘em “North Shore Republicans” around my ‘hood.

    I expect Brady can demolish Quinn, and am hopeful that he can generate some synergy going Kirk’s way as well.

    I know I’m pulling the lever (well, coloring in the oval) for both.

    Mew

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    Ace O’ Spades has Boxer down 5! Blog fodder for tmrw if you needed it…

  • mostlygood

    the north shore is his firewall – they love him up there, all the way from wilmette to lake bluff. so be nice to the north shore types – they’re not all bad, and they’ve been opening their wallets to him generously ;-)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • acat

    Seriously. While I disagree with their politics, if this can be a starting point for the illinois republican party coming together …

    Mew

    (even the Crook County Repubs…)

  • ralatredstate

    SurveyUSA 8/9 – 8/11 602 LV 42 47 Fiorina +5

  • Scope

    and had a chuckle. It was a surveyUSA poll done on the VA 5th district race, and, Hurt, the R, was ahead of the Dem, Tommy Perriello by 20 points. Perriello’s team immediately hit the blogsphere in the district that SurveyUSA is not a credible polling outfit. They claimed that more reputable polling outfits had him leading or tied with Hurt. Never mentioned the first “credible” polling outfit, because, there were no other polls done on the race. Can we say desperate.

    At a Senior Center today, Perriello told a crowd of about 300 that he was very much against the VA Atty. General’s lawsuit against the mandate for Ocare. He said that the bill is going to save everyone about $2,800. The seniors weren’t buying his bullcrap. They might be dumb Dems, but they know they are going to get screwed by this bill.

  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    we are told here in Illinois that a conservative (fiscal and social especially) cannot win statewide office.

    We were also told that Brady will ride Kirk’s coattails into the Governor’s mansion.

    However, if you look at the polls and as Neil has pointed out, Brady is up 13 and Kirk/Giannoulias are tied.

    It seems Kirk will be riding Brady’s coattails into the Senate and I hope both win. But, I hope Brady wins by a larger margin than Kirk does to prove a conservative’s worth in running statewide (because I won’t accept the Judy Baar Topinka “bad candidate running a bad campaign” argument anymore). Either way, I think that Kirk’s numbers will begin to improve as Brady’s lead remains constant or increases.

    Illinois is the key to capping a GOP victory. If we win all over in November but the Illinois Senate seat stays Democrat, the libs in the media will say that since Illinois stayed blue, the mood of the country hasn’t gone completely GOP which would also set up the storyline until 2012. If Illinois goes red, then the libs in the media, Sen. Durbin, and the White House will have a huge black eye. It’s one thing to lose Ted Kennedy’s seat, it’s another to lose Obama’s old seat.

  • randycorporation

    Socrates nails it. This is such a blown opportunity for the liberal “Republican” establishment to have bought the nomination for a jerk like Kirk. They could easily have backed a Peter Roskum but Roskum wasn’t screaming liberal enough for the GOP powers that be. Now Kirk has distinguished himself as a soulless liar about his military record and has even lied about some “life changing” event when he was capsized on Lake Michigan and had to be rescued. I’m sure his tony yacht club was very disappointed. A sock puppet could have beaten Giannoulias, but we got stuck with the liar Kirk. One of the 8 “Republican” Cap and Traitors who shived us in the back on Cap and Trade. He proudly announced he would have voted for Elana Kagan and said he would vote for the Teachers Union stimulus until the heat from the right finally got to him. I cannot be complicit in voting for this amoral RINO, and send another Olympia Snowe to the Senate. I’ll probably vote for the libertarian Mike Labno.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    His policy views aren’t what’s holding him back…

  • proudgop

    and once again Illinois has 4 key congressional races ( we pick up 3 and hold Open Kirk Seat the House is coming our way) and we can do it right in Obama’s back yard

  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    about Kirk right now. He’s made some voting decisions that went with the GOP like the $26 billion union bailout. Maybe he’s noticing what Brady is doing and wants some of that?

    Btw – Kirk robocalled my work this evening. Good robocall all around, but I think they need to check their phone numbers of people versus businesses.

  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    Polling is showing a possible IL House takeover. It’ll take some work, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

    Imagine the GOP taking the Senate, Governor and ousting Mike Madigan as Speaker. A triple play. I don’t care if my hopes are getting up, I want to see this in the worst way…

  • mriggio

    so, other than your rote repetition of Kirk’s opponent’s attack ads, all this was hashed out during the primary. We’re pretty much conservative in the primary, Republican in the general around here. If you want to vote against the Republican candidate, that’s certainly your right, but you don’t need to be making the Democrat’s arguments here. Maybe review the Posting Guidelines: “The purpose of this site is promote conservative and Republican ideals. ” Not to replay Democrat attack ads.

  • liandro

    He didn’t aggressively attack the budget, but he has to do something. So he has slowly released small cut after small cut, and still has barely dented our deficit+debt numbers. End result: upsetting fiscal hawks, because the numbers are still ugly. Upsetting services and education, because he is hacking away at them. And spreading all that pain over the entire summer. People are left uncertain, angry, and scared.

    Take that brew and add in R enthusiasm, Blago’s stain, Quinn’s tone-deafness (giving RAISES to his staff, including the guy in charge of CUTTING the budget??? yikes!), and an inability to escape responsibility (governor in a state with a powerful executive,and having near-super majorities in the the legislative). Quinn’s goose is cooked.

  • liandro

    Principled conservatives CAN win in Illinois.

  • randycorporation

    because I am a conservative; not a Republican. It’s Republican Party incompetence that handed over the State to the democrats in the first place; good job. I am not repeating demonrat ad points, I am reciting news stories. Kirk is, in fact, a RINO and a liar as has been shown by press stories time and time again. Even Mr. Stevens original story here recites both Kirk and Giannoulias are hated, well, I’m an example to back up his statement.

    You can sell out conservatism in favor of your team with the “R” emblem; I won’t. If there were such a thing as a conservative democrat, I’d gladly vote for him/her over a liberal “Republican” like Kirk.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    We don’t shill for third parties, here; and frankly this particular hypocrisy of yours – calling people RiNOs while simultaneously announcing your refusal to abide by a Republican primary – needs to be sat on. So, toodles.

    Frankly, I’d ban for RiNO if I could – it’s like ‘neocon’ by now; it’s semantically equivalent to ‘Republicans that I don’t like’ – but I probably couldn’t swing it, and people do need to vent. But we don’t play give-the-election-to-the-mob-banker-Democrat games, here.

  • mriggio

    It’s great you’re a conservative; so am I. And yes, the Republican Party in Illinois has certainly not done itself proud in recent memory. But, do you really believe name-calling and third-party voting is a productive way to proceed?

    If you were to check out my posting history you’d see that I was not a Kirk supporter during the primary. As I said, the primary’s over.

    Both Kirk and Giannoulias are hated, have baggage, etc. But, one of them will be the next Senator from Illinois. Since I’d much prefer it NOT to be the Democrat, I won’t vote against the Republican just to prove my conservatism.

    Reciting negative news stories about the Republican nominee, along with childish name-calling (“jerk”, “liar”), here of all places, only serves to vent your spleen, not to defeat the Democrat.

    The OP was about the possible, and to-be-desired, synergy that Brady’s surge might give to Kirk. Your comments can’t help that happen.

    BTW, are you actually doing anything to help improve the Illinois Republican Party, besides keyboarding? Or are you really convinced the best way forward for conservatism is third party? Since you don’tlike the way the primary turned out (neither do I), you can personally work to change things rather than just flinging poo all over RedState going into the general election.

  • mriggio
  • eburke

    I am particularly fond of your closing sentence:

    “Since you don?tlike the way the primary turned out (neither do I), you can personally work to change things rather than just flinging poo all over RedState going into the general election.”

    Well done, my man, well done! (and thank you for your service…both in the past and as a PC)

  • eburke

    sell my soul to see than Barbara “I’m dumber than a box of rocks but please call me Senator” Boxer getting tossed out of the Senate on her arrogant, sanctimonious, baby-killer, moronic a##.

    In a Senate full of Dem posers and losers, she’s the 2nd biggest schmuck up there right behind Sen. Stuart Smalley.

  • IJB

    But I get your point.

  • mriggio

    you’re welcome!
    Cheers!

  • redneck_hippie

    We do not come here to depress Republican/Conservative electoral turnout.

    For the readers out there –WE COME HERE TO DEPRESS DEMOCRAT TURNOUT!!!!!!!

    Among other things so aptly stated by mriggio.