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Missouri Senate race also opens up

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 12th, 2010 at 11:30 AM  | 

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Blunt Carnahan

From Unlikely Voter: In my estimation, Missouri Republicans have underperformed. The state doesn’t strike me as especially friendly to Democrats, and failed to swing for Obama, but Republicans there ought to do better than they have.

I think Roy Blunt may be opening the kind of lead I expect in that state, after months of concern and close polling.

Much like my views on the Ohio race, I’m not counting Robin Carnahan out. Not yet, anyway. But per RCP PPP’s last showed Blunt +4, Mason Dixon’s last showed Blunt +6, and now Rasmussen has Blunt at 50, 7 points ahead of Carnahan at 43 (MoE 4, not 4.5).

A larger lead, a smaller Margin of Error, and a budding majority are all great news for Roy Blunt. I expect this kind of Republican consolidation to make a difference in my next Senate projection.

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  • rdelbov

    could be related to Obama’s big fundraising visit with Carnahan. After months of evading the President she came and got his sign of approval plus some bucks.

    I think the Obama/Carnahan ticket goes down in November. I look for this race to close and would not be surprised by 6 or 8 point win. That’s a relatively tight contest. Republicans rarely win landslides in this state.

  • itrytobenice

    Yes, I’m from MO and I’m sure this is because of my illustrious presence and influence.

    BTW, it’s too bad Robin Carnahan is another union bought, pro-death, statist Democrat, because she’s not a terribly ugly woman. She hardly belongs in the party of death, because as you all are well aware, all the foxes belong in the R party. :-)

  • Oz

    Where does that put the odds of Blunt definitely having a lead or whatever your usual stat is.

  • tomato

    MO raised and bred, Missouri is truly a purple state. Though I think by numbers there are more of us right of center in the state as a whole. But the sympathetic density gravitates to St. Louis and Kansas City. They are solid blue. When tallies come in from precincts dominated by farmers, ‘burbanites, and Ozark ‘billies, it tilts the election.

    I’ve seen this cycle many, many times in MO elections.
    Missourians don’t generally rush to make their feelings known until its necessary. The inner-cities will be the first to cheer for a liberal statist in Carnahan. The media will gloat how our state is finally becoming progressive, how Republicans are losing the midwest, et al. Then comes the election. Shock. Blaming poor messaging, the electorate unable to understand what’s really important, etc.

    The election is won or lost out in the fields not inside the brick and mortar housing community organizers.

    Like a plum, MO is purple on the outside but may be more red once you take a bite.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I guess I do usually do that.

    Pulling out my tool, it’s a big 80/20.

  • http://wadingacross.wordpress.com logus

    And I agree. The state is split almost 50/50 population-wise between the metro areas of KC and StL and then the rest of the state. And many of these people living in the two major cities are diehard liberals and Democrats.

    Frankly, I’m a bit perturbed but not surprised at how the Republican primary went down here in Missouri. If the Tea Parties, 9-12ers and other conservatives were so riled up and ready to go, then why wasn’t more votes taken away from Blunt? Blunt took something like 80% of the Republican vote. If there has been so much talk about getting good candidates in every other state, why wasn’t there as much focus and effort spent on Missouri?

    And so now, Missouri is left with Blunt. Better than Carnahan, but leagues behind Purgason and some of the other Republican candidates in my mind. Evidently quite a number of conservatives and Republicans in Missouri were more concerned about Carnahan winning than voting for candidates with character and values.

  • jomo2009

    churlish of me to suggest that Robin Carnahan would look more natural if she were munching that bale of hay instead of sitting on it?

  • tomato

    I think Missouri relies on name recognition. Both Blunt and Carnahan are known political families. I don’t underestimate MO’s desire for the comfort zone. I can’t say the state wants proven candidates. (reference the inept widow Carnahan), but the state does want proven names.

    On the one hand, MO is a great place to be defiant of an overreaching government a trait of a Tea Party member. But on the other hand, we’re conservative against making big leaps into the unknown. We’re Bluntly better off than with a crazy carnie.