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Boxer falls behind Fiorina, Whitman even with Brown

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 13th, 2010 at 10:30 AM  | 

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Fiorina Boxer

From Unlikely Voter: SurveyUSA polled the California statewide races for San Francisco’s KPIX, a television station for one of the most safe cities in the state for Democrats. This is Nancy Pelosi’s own district here. Any bias introduced into this poll won’t be from the right.

So it’s notable when this poll shows Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman ahead of Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown.

Boxer and Brown have been up in other polls, but this one shows Fiorina with a real lead. 47-42 (MoE 4.1) certainly isn’t a runaway advantage, but a 72/28 lead probability split has to be among the best polling results any Republican has managed statewide against Barbara Boxer in her entire career. She’s certainly faced no real threats in any previous re-election chance.

Meanwhile Whitman has essentially tied up the race with Brown, as her 44-43 result creates a virtually even 54/46 lead probability split. We don’t rightly know who’s ahead for Governor per this poll, in essence. This is one of those polls that can safely be called a “statistical tie.” That, in itself, is an improvement for Whitman who fell off her poling leads in the matchup against Brown starting around primary day.

The Senate race though, it’s not at all a tie according to this poll. Fiorina has shown a lead for just the second time in a major poll, even counting results before the primary. She sure has come a long way from March 2009, when Field had her down 55-25.

Possibly the key demographics? According to KPIX, Fiorina’s lead in the central valley, one of America’s great agricultural regions and the home of the Delta Smelt, has tripled. And for Boxer, her support among the critical Independent bloc has declined.

If that trend continues, we’ll be seeing plenty more leads for her after this one.

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COMMENTS

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  • rino

    How can self-described “progressives” oxymoronically nominate a couple of dinosaurs? Barbara Boxer, Jerry Brown…good grief.

    Hey California Democarts, 1991 called. It wants its “progressives” back.

  • renny

    If Whitman and Fiorna win in CA, and maybe Haley in S. Carolina and Barchman in MN, and McMahon at the outside in CT, what propaganda will the left pile on those women?

    And, this is totally off base, how come Rep. women come out of businesses and are celebrity-quality in looks, and liberal female twits come out of faculty lounges and look like smashed pumpkins? Are there no attractive profs?

  • rdelbov

    california a while back and here is a followup on that last Rasmussen poll.

    One or two polls ago Rasmussen has Boxer at 89% among democrats. I said then and I say it now. No way San Jose. Boxer barely got 75% in the primary and that was certainly a more liberal representation of democrats as a whole. In this SUSA poll Boxer gets 73%–with some undecideds. Spot on in my opinion. Poll after Poll plus the primary results show that moderate democrats are shying away from Boxer. If she only gets 75% of D’s she is toast.

    The Partisan breakdown in this poll appears to be +7 or so D. I think I had to calculate it as opposed to it being given. Still too D for this election cycle.

    The indies are the killer for Boxer in this poll. She has lost the middle ground to Carly F. I think-and I don’t think I am wrong-Boxer is one of those 1/2 dozen of so senators that opinions are set. She is a big time liberal and cannot run to the middle in CA. She might hammer her foe as a conservative radical but Babs cannot run as a “moderate”. So expect a very nasty campaign from BB.

  • chihank

    In a liberal state like CA, Whitman and Fiorina have to walk a tight rope- statisfy conservative and appease liberal leaning indies.

    Lets all foucs on realitistic goals that Whitamn and Fiorina can do like voting “no” on the Obama agenda.

    Some conservatives are whining that Whitman & Fiorinia oppose tampering with the 14th Amendement to stop anchor babies. Stop that whining. Chaning the 14ht Amendement won’t happen any time soon.

    Again. Focus on short term, realistic goals.

  • Oz

    I love the analysis here.

    Thanks,

  • zarathustra57

    They’re just also conservatives! ;)

    Seriously, I think it would be great if this year’s election cycle retires Harry, Babs, GI Blumenthal…AND the “The GOP are just old, rich white men!” meme.

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    Have come for your uncool niece
    Go quietly too the camp
    You’ll look nice as a shade for a lamp.
    (HT: Jello Biafra)

  • msctex

    CA is like MA: we take what we can get, because the status quo is currently so toxic. Just as Scott Brown was an enormous symbolic victory, being rid of Boxer would as well make a thundering statement as to the mood of the nation. Sometimes that is all you can hope for, and it is a thing to be devoutly wished.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Fiorina is a mainstream, pro-life Republican, period.

  • SIConservative

    This poll looks too good to be true. It just doesn’t fit with the others. That said, if it is confirmed we can start talking very seriously about the prospect of retaking the Senate.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    …but SUSA did pretty well in the latest elections.

  • http://www.twitter.com/RS_yoyo yoyo

    No, really. COME ON!

    http://unlikelyvoter.com/2010/08/03/nikki-haley-cruising/

    Aside from this, there are plenty of attractive professionals, aside from the mainstream group:
    Conservatives
    – MK Hamm
    – Jenny Sanford
    – Dana Loesch
    – Lady Ann (Coulter)
    – SE Cupp
    – Tabitha Hale
    – Lori (Snarkandboobs) Ziganto
    – Ericka Anderson
    – Melissa Clouthier
    (to name a few)

    Progressives…
    I can only think of one: Kristen Powers – but as soon as she speaks… not so much.

    LOL

    ‘:o)~

  • http://www.twitter.com/RS_yoyo yoyo

    And would like to add that *Spellcheck* is your friend, Hank.

  • zarathustra57

    I think that’s how Renny was using it, at least.

  • waxmanlaw

    Looking at this poll, the only thing I have qualms with is they may have oversampled the central valley. That may be due to their likely voter screen. This may not be a flaw in SUSA’s methodology, it may well be an accurate predictor of the November turnout. It may well be that the Delta Smelt issue is bigger than the other polling firms have detected and SUSA is ahead of the curve.

    Anyway, Fiorina is killing Boxer in the Central Valley and it would be justice if an environmental wacko like Boxer would be done in by the fruits of her policies. You might say Boxer has gone one irrigation ditch too far.

  • tomato

    Never before had I imagined any possibility that an incumbent will refuse to step down. However, after hearing certain failed incumbents, Bennet and Specter lash out against the voters as if an election is their burden, I imagine differently.

    I don’t see “X-Files” Boxer nor Harry Reid step off the stage quietly.

    Of course, I don’t expect them to be in the Senate Chamber, if defeated, come January 2011. But I do expect inflammatory words worthy of a dictator on election night. Worse, I do expect a dangerous lame-duck session to enact vengeance on its subjects.

    Is the Central Valley known for having its water cut off by Pelosi and her Northern CA brethren? I would expect zero votes Democratic from a constituency asked to “let them eat dirt”.

  • Zaber

    “You’ll look nice as a drawstring lamp”

    Not that one lyric makes California uber Alles any less offensive when taken out of context. ;)

    I can see a Koskid posting about how one Dead Kennedys song posting confirms that we’re Nazis, since they’re not old enough to remember real punk and they’d never do enough research to know the song was about Jerry Brown. ;)