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Fisher fading in Ohio

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 17th, 2010 at 02:00 PM  | 

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Portman Fisher

From Unlikely Voter: According to Rasmussen’s latest, Rob Portman is holding a steady level of support in the Ohio Senate race. However the surge of support that Lee Fisher took after his primary win seems to be receding, which leaves Portman alone on top with a clear lead.

In this first Rasmussen poll of Ohio with “leaners” included, Portman leads 45-37 (MoE 4), giving the Republican a clear 84% chance of being ahead in my model. This is a very good poll for him, and clearly a terrible one for Fisher.

Fisher has never polled so low in Rasmussen. It may be he will recover in a couple of weeks, as this could have been a fluky result for him. But on the other hand Portman has a huge cash advantage, and should his campaign get on the air and go negative on Fisher, it may be Fisher will not recover.

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  • fbks

    of 48% Republican 36% Democrat effect projections for Republican gains in the house and senate?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    48/36 translates to a 57/43 two party split, or a R+14 advantage.

    2008 was 44/56 or a D+12 advantage.

    That’s a 26 point swing and the Swingometer projects a 67 seat Republican gain.

  • Oz

    I understand that negative campaigning often works but I also know that it can turn off some votes.

    Maybe a “Choices” ad where Portman’s choices compare to Fishers bad ones (sort of a positive / negative ad)?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I don’t know what Portman’s strategy going forward will be, but I do think that ads *contrasting* Portman and Fisher are far more likely than pure negative attacks.

  • earlgrey

    I guess it is the last name or something. Everytime I see his picture it reminds me of Barney Miller.

  • philhoganjr

    no reason to go negative. just reinforce what’s already been established.

    imo, it’ll take a major gaffe for portman to lose this race.

  • sayoung80913

    Senate Bill S510 Makes it illegal to Grow, Share, Trade or Sell Homegrown Food

  • IJB

    The new is all bad on the Senate Dem front today – not just OH, but bad polls for them from PA and MO as well. And from three different polling firms too, so it wasn’t just “Rasmussen bias”.

    (Even the 4th poll, a PPP poll from IL, was horrible news for Dems, as both candidates being mired in the 30s probably indicates very low voter interest – something that will favor Kirk.)

    I don’t think the Dems have gotten a favorable poll result in over a week now. :)

  • mboyle1988

    There were two PA polls that put Toomey up 9. I’m surprised no one here has commented yet. However, winning OH, PA and MO brings us to 45 seats. That’s a +4 advantage. That’s not good enough. Here’s what I’m looking for:

    1. I’m not counting any Florida poll until after the primary. I want to see if Meek wins, and if he wins, whether or not he gets a bounce at Crist’s expense. I expect this one to break Rubio’s way, but I’m still very nervous. We need to keep this seat.
    2. I want to see non Rasmussen polling on Wisconsin. Is Feingold in as much trouble as I think he is, having lost three straight polls, or is that just the Rasmussen effect?
    3. I want to see what happens in Colorado. This is perhaps the weirdest race. PPP has shown Bennet comfortably ahead in all its polls. Rasmussen has shown even bigger leads for Bennett. The Denver Post has them tied. But only Rasmussen was taken after the primary.
    4. I want to see another poll showing Fiorina ahead or tied with Boxer. She needs it to get the fundraising necessary to win. Boxer is going to spend $30 million.
    5. I really really want to see what Linda McMahon does. She is running, I think, the best campaign so far of any candidate. She’s cut her deficit by 40 points. Can she keep going? I think she might be able to. If she does, that significantly improves GOP chances in the senate.
    6. What happens if Rossi wins one of the primary spots today? Does he pull even with Murray?
    7. Which way does Illinois break? We got bad news there. We were leading that race. Now it’s tied or leaning Dem. What happened? Which way will it break?
    8. Finally, most critically, what does Sharron Angle do? Reid is the least popular of the four incumbents we can knock off. If we don’t knock him off, I don’t see how we win the Senate. Sharron needs to run a better campaign and get her poll numbers up. She should be winning this race in a walk.

    In other words, the states we got good news in were already breaking for the GOP. The news was good in that it basically means I don’t have to worry about them now, barring major gaffes. However, far more valuable to me would be something that shows one of the above races breaking our way. There’s nascent evidence in each state bar Nevada (which is most critical). If Angle is ahead in the next Rasmussen poll, I’ll start getting excited.

  • itsjoanne

    Sounds like good chance at least a couple of Ohio House seats will flip to the GOP as well.

  • JadedByPolitics

    …

  • harrisonmom

    Get out there today and do just ONE thing to help Portman. Give a few bucks, register your kids to vote, volunteer at a phone bank, but above all, turn your friends on to REDSTATE!!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That’s not my projection though; I’m just running the hypothetical above. :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • acat

    A large percentage of votes for Brady will also be votes for Kirk, despite what poll numbers say.

    Anyone voting for Brady is not going to turn around and vote for the crook Giannoulias.. and not likely to leave that chad un-punched. (or, from the last couple elections I’ve voted in, that oval un-filled)

    Mew

  • NotSoBlueStater

    The sooner you identify the (R) and the (D), the happier I am. I don’t always remember who is running where, and some days (gasp!) I’m scanning and don’t click the “READ MORE”

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I get more casual about that on the races I cover more, but the point is well taken.

  • IJB

    Notably, however, while Cook is willing to downgrade ‘Likely D’ to ‘Leans D’ and ‘Leans D’ to ‘Toss-Up’, he still is unwilling to expand his ‘Likely D’ field, which means that I feel like he’s still missing some races that should be on the board…

  • Coop

    … but if you think a sitting Majority Leader with about a $10 million warchest is going to be defeated “in a walk” then you’re just fooling yourself.

    Sharron Angle has raised nearly $3 million via the Internet since her primary win. And her incumbent opponent cannot break 50% in the polls. The last poll showed him up 46-44%. If the election were held tomorrow, I’m nearly certain Harry Reid would lose.

    Nothing has occurred in this race that should have surprised anyone. Angle’s original 50% mark was simply a post-primary bounce. Nothing more. And Reid was going to come in with guns a blazin’ no matter who won the primary. Instead Angle being an extremist idiot, it would have been Lowden or Tarkanian with the same labels. But the race isn’t about Angle or any GOP candidate. It’s about Harry Reid, no matter how much money he spends, being unable to achieve 50% in nearly twenty polls taken since last December.

  • Coop

    I’d like to see the updated races, please. Thanks

  • Coop

    I found it by hitting refresh on Cook’s site. I’m a genius! :-p

  • NotSoBlueStater

    n/t

  • Richard Mullins

    says Lee Fisher, who is a dead ringer for the Riddler on Batman: The TV show.