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Three seats I’ll stop wondering about

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 20th, 2010 at 12:30 PM  | 

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Senate

Some Senate seats I’ll worry about all the way to November, but today when I looked at the list of new polls out, I got a flood of races I’m pretty comfortable calling for the Republican, barring any new news of course.

Georgia: Johnny Isakson +12 over Michael Thurmond per Insider Advantage for WSB. MoE 4.

Louisiana: David Vitter +12 over Charlie Melancon per Clarus Research Group for WWL and other Louisiana stations. MoE 4.

Arkansas: John Boozman +38 over Blanche Lincoln per Rasmussen Reports. MoE 4.

Some may worry over these races when one of the Republicans makes a brief but inevitable dip or one of the Democrats makes a brief but inevitable rise in the polls. However I might not even write about any of these three races anymore unless I hear of a reason they should be changing, or see sustained movement toward the Democrats.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • http://www.2010blog.net jsanzone

    Safe!

  • http://www.2010blog.net jsanzone

    Of course.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    the Braves and Gamecock. Only then do you get to “ia”

  • NeoKong

    I wonder.
    If Blanche Lincoln knew then what she knows now would she still have voted or Obamacare….?
    I bet she like all the rest of the soon to be unemployed are regretting that vote.
    I think they thought it would all blow over in a few weeks and never dreamed the anger would be even stronger 9 months later.

    This November THEY will remember too.
    Ha Ha!!!

  • kewgardens

    Kentucky is turning my stomach. Paul is not a good candidate and there’s a real chance that Conway passes him in the end — even in the 2010 environment. The Kentucky GOP should have nominated Greyson. If they had this race would be over.

  • ktsub

    So row the boat, or get off…

  • proudgop

    is so far running ads in PA, KY, and MO ( they are running 4.5 against Blunt they announced today)

    Paul will be fine no way in KY going to vote for someone in favor of Obamacare, cap and trade, and failed stimulus thats all they have to hit him on

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The new poll is total garbage.

    I dismantled it here.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Cut the sour grapes whining.

  • itsjoanne

    Hoeven will probably get about 70% of the vote there.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I never wondered about either of those. :)

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    I know Moe is predicting Republicans taking both houses. I am pessimistic by nature, but even I am thinking it might be possible.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • itsjoanne

    :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    +6 to +8.

  • whiskey_sierra

    As a voter in that district, all I have to say is GOD NO!

    Greyson is a retard….Conway would have eaten his establishment McConnel-lap-dog butt.

    Conway doesn’t know how to respond to Paul’s non-neocon style.

  • itrytobenice

    I know the Ds have high hopes, but Carnahan is ducking BO, and her only hope is big turnout in KC and StL.

    If she drags him around with her, she’ll get their votes, but if she does, she loses by 70% in the rest of the state.

    It’s over for her. He’s toxic and she has to have him.

  • eburke

    to help get Rand Paul elected.

    If you have made any, thanks for your help but your pining for what’s not going to be is not going to help.

    If the answer is nothing, I would suggest you get off your butt and start doing something or just shut the hell up while the rest of us work to get Republicans (and that includes everyone from Paul to Buck to Fiorina to Kirk (says through clenched teeth) elected this fall.

    Thank you.

  • earlgrey

    We need Rs to win, but we also want strong Rs to win. Greyson struck me as silly putty to be molded however the R leadership wanted. That is not what I want (or would want if I were voting in KY). Besides he is no longer a choice now.

    Moe had an excerpt from Ace of Spades about how we need to give up our sour grapes and contribute to the Rs as much as we can, because we have to make a difference now. Staying home and and whining is a rubber stamp to Obama’s agenda.

    BTW, I used to live in Lexington. I miss it very much. A beautiful place.

  • joecollins

    Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

  • callawyn

    for blowing a pile of money on Lincoln’s primary :)

  • IJB

    …And that is, in both of these polls, the incumbents are under 50% (barely).

    In general, that’s not a good thing.

    The caveat to the caveat is that both the GA and LA polls are from lower-rung polling organizations. Unless and until more reputable polling firms also show these two below 50%, I’m not planning on sweating it… :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • nvrepub

    nt

  • IJB

    Is there some historical results that show this to be true? Or is it just a “gut feeling” thing?

    On my end, I’ve instituted a “only look at the ‘top-line’ number” in races with incumbents – personally, I’m coming to think that whether an incumbent is over, or under, 50% (and by how much) is pretty much the only thing that matters.

    (And my back-of-the-envelop thinking is – any incumbent at, or below 52%, c. Labor Day is at least theoretically “beatable”, and any incumbent under 45% or so has *already* lost!…)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think they both can win, but Rubio at this point I have better feelings about than Angle.

    But it’s early and if Angle’s bottomed out then it’s a very good sign for her.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’ve run these numbers so many times, that I’ve seen it in practice. 45-30 is far less dangerous for an incumbent than 49-43.

  • calgacus

    Rand Paul is leading in the polls solidly, as was Trey Grayson before. The only difference is that Paul will be a better Senator.

  • calgacus

    Reid is flat out despised in Nevada. Crist, on the other hand, is somehow still very popular. Furthermore, I do not see how Angle can do any worse, without trying, than she is now. Reid has spent about $10 million attacking her.

  • SIConservative

    I’m inclined to disagree with you on the safety of a twelve point lead with the incumbent under 50. That said, I’d agree that GA is a lock based on other numbers, namely, the 6/30 FEC reports. Sen. Isakson leads Mike Thurmond in CoH $4.9 million to $0.1 million.

    In Louisiana, though, the numbers tell a different story. Sen. Vitter lead Rep. Melancon in CoH, but Melancon had $2.2 million on hand. Further, in the survey you cite, 20% of black voters are undecided compared with only 12% of white voters. Since the black voters are likely to break very heavily for Melancon, I think the race may be closer than the top line suggests. I expect that Vitter will win, but I think it’s too soon to say that this one is in the bag.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You’re assuming all undecideds will vote. In a poll of RVs that’s not going to be the case.

  • Richard Mullins

    so with that, I think that Melancon is toast. Vitter v Melancon is going to more a cakewalk than Cornyn v Noriega in 2008. I’m not sure of the number in Landreiu v Kennedy in 2008.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • SIConservative

    In 2008, 29% of Louisiana voters were black. In the poll, 24% of respondents were.

  • SIConservative

    If you’re going to make it, that also raises a legit question of how valuable a RV poll is at all. A couple of LV polls would be much more enlightening.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But I think that it’s safe to assume that an RV poll tilts toward the Democrats. People registered to vote just to vote for Obama, who won’t be showing up in November.

    If Vitter is up double figures among RVs, he could be up 20 among LVs.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    2008 was not a midterm.

  • SIConservative

    29% in 2008 to 24% in 2010 would represent a drop off in black turnout, which is exactly the point that Richard brought up.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But let’s just all agree a poll of LVs would be nice? :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The last Rasmussen had Vitter up 18, and that was of LVs.

    The fact that RR and PPP haven’t polled this race since June suggests to me they’ve both written the race off, though.