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The mother of all unity bounces in Washington

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 23rd, 2010 at 11:00 AM  | 

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Murray Rossi

In the Washington Senate primary, those candidates with an expressed preference for Democrats combined for 48.7% of the vote, with Patty Murray leading at 46.4%. Those candidates preferring Republicans combined for 49.7%, with Dino Rossi on top at 33.3%.

And yet, looking at SurveyUSA’s poll, Republicans are coming out of the primary energized and unified, Democrats are depressed, and Independents are ready to try someone new.

That’s the only way I can interpret this result: Rossi leads 52-45 (MoE 4). Rossi wins 90% of Republicans, Murray wins 88% of Democrats, and Rossi nabs 59% of Independents. With Murray keeping her base, the only explanation I have for this result is that Democrats are unhappy and not as likely to vote, as SUSA’s poll is of likely voters.

That said, I think some may have been afraid that there would be lingering resentment on the right of Rossi after he took so long to enter the race, giving others a chance to enter, especially when those others were perceived as being to Rossi’s right. But when Rossi pulls 94% of those who favor the TEA party movement, that’s clearly not an issue.

Of course, in Washington’s system there is no third party option. The top two vote getters in the primary, in this case Rossi and Murray, are the only options in November.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • fpete13527
  • rdelbov

    in the SUSA poll as opposed to the Rasmussen poll from last week.

    1st as you noted Rossi wins the Indies by a 59-35. That’s huge and is in line with numerous other GOP senate candidates from NH to DE to PA to OH to MO. The republican are winning the indie vote this year in specific polls and in the generic numbers as well.

    The 2nd story is the partisan makeup. SUSA has it 33D-29R-34I. That’s a +4D sample. In 2008 the exit poll info had a breakdown of 39D-29R-32I. So according to SUSA there is a 6% shift from democrats to republicans in WA. I see that as a reasonable shift. That’s a combination of people either giving up on the democrat party or you see republicans who are anxious to vote.

    This poll is really bad for the democrats.

  • reaganauh2o

    Living in King County during the first gubernatorial race between Dino Rossi and WA State Attorney General, Christine Gregoire; it was maddening when Dino won the election, then won the recount, then…the hand recount started. I kept hearing on the radio how uncounted absentee ballots were “found” on shelves, stuck between stacked ballot collection bins, etc. Gee, guess who won?

    Well, what goes around comes around. Right after she moved into the governor’s mansion, her little gerbil sized dog got run over. Watching her blubbering on camera I wanted to feel sorry for her, but watching an election get stolen in broad daylight I just couldn’t.

    Dino needs redemption and I can’t think of a better way than to retire the “mom in tennis shoes” after 18 years. She so needs to go away.

    GO DINO!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Richard Mullins

    and seeing that Patty Murray was down is great. Maybe we should Didler against Cantwell in 2012 and turn Washington state into a 2 Republican state(maybe try DeVore against Feinstien in 2012 out in CA as well). Killing off the Dems is great.

  • Richard Mullins

    and get some revenge for the 2004 governor race is certainly good. Getting rid of Patty Murray is a good thing and the only thing better might be getting rid of Maria Cantwell in 2012.

  • bobojake

    sitting at the end of the table past midnight holding the candle,making sure reid and schumer got the CORNHUSKER KICKBACK wrote correct for Ben Nelson in the foney fraudulent obamascare..
    Schumer mentored murray and she is just as CORRUPT as reid, obama and pelosi and schumer. i can’t say teddy kennedy or robert byrrd anymore.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • rdelbov

    spot on. You mention nearly every time. There is an l aspect to any “wave election” and the polls are picking it up. One side is excited and the other party is gloom/depressed.

    Who has the passion? Who is excited and who is depressed. +10D in 2008 and you saw an Obama wave in WA. +4D in 2010 and you may seen a nice Rossi win. Here’s another point for you to ponder. Last week WA had a new primary system where people had to declare party perference. Keep in mind WA was +10, per exits, in 2008. Last week it was roughly 50-50 between the GOP and democrats. Now there was more of a GOP tussle but there were numerous legislative races plus a few congressional races on the democrat side. So 50-50 is wonderful considering the preference in 208 was more like 60-40.

    That’s why I harp weekly on the nearly 20 states where the GOP has set midterm primary turnout records. The republicans are excited and eager to vote.
    .

  • IJB

    …But I’ve noticed that SurveyUSA polls have tended to skew Republican this cycle.

    Either they’re an outlier, or they’re on to something. We won’t know which until Nov. 3.

    OTOH, PPP is all by itself on the FL GOP GOV primary – they’re either on to something, or PPP will be left with egg on their faces come Wednesday. I’m betting on the latter.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That’s why Rasmussen got all the shrieking from the left, why I expect SurveyUSA to be the next target, and PPP is going to cause a lot of wailing over at Kos.

  • earlgrey

    Is that based on their anticipation that they won’t win because of the polls (vicious – sp, cycle)? I mean they have gotten everything they want (almost) in terms of laws/regulations/freebies.

    I am hoping for something more permanent, from the conservative side. I know I am more active in contributions, etc. Always a political junkie, now political activist! I hope there are more like me, who will keep fighting, when the Rs have the tough job of governining from their leading positions. Good thing is the MSM seems to accelerated their journey towards becoming irrelevant.

  • rdelbov

    voters can have numerous roots.

    I think we all saw conservatives who disappointed in DC republicans in 2006 & 2008. Everyone has their ideas but GOP turnout was down in 2006/2008.

    For the democrats in 2010 there are several reasons to be depressed.

    1. If you are a hard core netroot or even a casual netroot Obama has not closed gitmo-we are still in Iraq-plus healthcare reform did not have a public option. Little guys are losing their homes -where is their mortgage bailout while the big unions & big business are getting bailed out. The netroots see Obama as less then half of glass of water. He ain’t done 1/2 of what he said he would do.

    2. Failure can make you glum. The economy stinks and if you are unemployed democrat you are in a funk. Obama has not delivered on his promise of 8% unemployment–union jobs are still being lost-there are tons of reasons to be depressed. Even healthcare reform has lead to more people losing their insurance and those of us with it are paying more. Exactly why did we do healthcare now?

  • mboyle1988

    SurveyUSA is just predicting an electorate that looks more like 2004 than either 2006 or 2008. Rasmussen is predicting a 2006 electorate. The other polling firms are predicting a 2008 electorate, essentially. If you look at the differences in the numbers, they come almost exclusively from the proportion of D:I:R. Within those groups, they are pretty consistent. I’d be happily surprised if Rossi won by 7 points on election day, but I do have to think he’ll pull it out, given the primary went and the lack of third party candidates.

  • chihank

    PPP tends to give a Left Spin with its poll results. Every month, PPP polls the NC Senate race, then ponders about ways to bring Richard Burr down.

    Last week, PPP recommended Dem Senate candidates to remind conservatives how much the last GOP Congress were run by big govt spenders like Roy Blunt and Richard Burr.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Rasmussen has us winning races we’d have lost in 06.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Centrists are disappointed at how left Obama is.

    The far left is disappointed at being mocked as “the professional left.”

    And everyone’s unhappy about the devastating unemployment reports.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    Been awhile since I looked at all of this, but I think Ras uses a different likely voter model and doesn’t mess with the weighting. Don’t hold me to this though.

    Now I do know that he is still running his 10,000 sample party identification poll monthly. So if Ras is using weighting, he is using his affiliation results for the weighting, not a picture of previous voting patterns.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • chihank

    USA Today and Politico spoke of Clint Didler saying he won’t back Rossi until he signs a pledge to ban abortion and not raise taxes.

    From Survey USA and Rasmusseen polls, the GOP is united behind Rossi. There are no significant divisions in the WA Senate.

  • rdelbov

    from the various reports in MSM-which you never know if you can trust_Didier has requested three things from Rossi.

    1. He wants Rossi to sign on as a supporter of the Ron Paul anti-abortion bill. I am leery of signing onto anything Ron Paul supprts and I think Didier is wrong to push this. Rossi is pro life and in 2004/2008 he had the support of the National Right to life organization. RTL and Dino Rossi want to end abortion except in the case of rape or incense or life of Mother. That’s the GOP platform position. Some folks-apparently Didier and Paul-want to push “life begans at conception”. While that is my personal view I do support the GOP platform that allows the three exceptions. Didier is playing games there in my opinion.

    2. Ditto on his demand for a no Tax pledge. Didier uses the word “never” and assume he wants it to cover every possible tax. Rossi was among the most conservative state senators during his time as a legislator so I don’t Didier should be requiring a fellow republican to sign a tax pledge. Rossi voted no on taxes. Unlike Murray who has voted hundreds of times to raise taxes. Rossi has to sign a pledge to get GOP support?

    3. Finally Didier wants “Rossi” to promise never to vote for a bill that will add to the deficit. So if a bill comes to pay for emergency ad to Washington state for a devasting tornado-that will add to the deficit-Rossi can’t vote for it? Rossi could break that vow by voting to spend $1000 for a Gold medal to Bill Buckley. Its the word “Never” that I object to.

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012678563_didier21m.html

    as I said the Paul bill sounds good but its going nowhere because its in conflict with what the GOP platform has been for years.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    His voters have abandoned is self-absorbed demands and are rallying around Rossi as nobody wants Murray anymore.

  • bobojake

    and realize he doesn’t controll the 130,000 vote+ he got. We Thank You for running Clint, now how about running for a State Legislature get some experience and come back in the future.
    Your a good man Clint but we have to defeat Murray even if we have do it without your 1 vote.
    God Bless You for running.

  • rdelbov

    absolutely spot on.

    Its either Rossi or Murray right now.

    Can any choice be clearer.

    What a day it would be to be rid of Boxer & Murray on the same night or early morning.

  • cactusjack

    to catch you. Have wanted to thank you for your good work esp helping us monitor the Western races they are wild and wooly this year and not for the faint of heart. My apologies to what extent they are good for, the Texans group of which I am a member got rowdy three or four weeks ago on that Defunding post; we can’t help it it is a very strange & aggravating feeling to have a bullseye target put on your back by your own federal government, a feeling which Louisiana and Virginia have also been getting. Forgive the occasional pot shots at California. It is a beautiful state which produced RWR and Duncan Hunter, on those grounds alone we must ponder ways to reclaim the once solid red state California. But still her lefty politicians are *fair game* I am sure you would agree.

  • JoeG

    The dems pushed the jungle primary to make it harder for the Republicans. It is apparent in this case that it prevented any possible primary challenge because dem voters felt that they had to vote for Murray to prevent two R names on the ballet.

  • JoeG

    Thank you Neil.

    Have you looked at anything in Oregon? If we end up with a 3 left coast state sweep in the Senate it would be a nasty sting for the Dems.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I haven’t seen much on the Senate race at all. I know Dudley is well positioned, but I haven’t seen much on the Senate race.

    That’s all I know.

    And being in California, I have a natural interest in the western races. :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Jungle primary = incumbent protection. No wonder it’s being pushed down here in CA.

  • Arad1994

    sponsored by Americans for Tax Reform. The claim that he hasn’t is unfounded. Here’s a link to the website: http://bit.ly/99sAKI.

  • JoeG

    I hope the enthusiasm gap costs the dems. The enthusiasm for Kitzhaber is non-existent. It just came out yesterday that he is now under investigation by the feds.

    If the Rs manage to pick up the house and senate then the Rs get to redraw the legislative districts. Oregon is heavily Gerrymandered in the dems favor and a redraw would cost them for 10 years.