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Rasmussen on California: Whitman and Boxer up

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 26th, 2010 at 02:00 PM  | 

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California

Rasmussen Reports has two new polls out: one on the race for Governor between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman, and the other on the Senate race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina.

I don’t think the results they show are compatible. If one is right, I think the other is wrong.

When Rasmussen showed Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 5 with leaners, 49-44 (which isn’t a deterioration for Fiorina because without leaners she’s as close as she’s been in the Rasmussen poll, 44-43), Margin of Error 4, I wasn’t surprised. It still gives the Republican a one in four chance of being ahead per my calculations, but I don’t expect Fiorina to make any moves until later.

But after seeing that poll for Senate, the poll for Governor did surprise me. Whitman up 8 with and without leaners? Ahead 51-43 with? That’s not what I expected. While I show a 26% chance for Fiorina, I only find 16% for the former two-term Governor Brown Jr.

I’m not surprised that Whitman leads, though. I’m surprised because Whitman and Fiorina are showing such a wide swing between their results. I have a hard time buying that there will be a 13 point swing between them when the votes are counted in November. Despite the fact that they do hold opposing positions on abortion, they’re synchronized on key issues of the day such as the economy and marriage.

I just can’t believe that so many California voters will vote for Meg Whitman and then vote for Barbara Boxer. I suppose it is possible, particularly if abortion carries the day, but with unemployment where it is, I can’t imagine California’s election will turn on that issue.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • tskcoug

    I do not find it hard to believe that there are fewer Californians who want Governor Moonbeam back than there are those who want Senator Boxer reelected.

  • rdelbov

    I agree with you 100%

    defies logic–poll chatter.

    I think conventional wisdom is that Whitman is doing a bit better then Carly F but not 8 % better.

  • indylawyer

    Lots of reasons someone might split their votes between candidates of opposite parties: state vs. federal issues, executive vs. legislative roles, specific characteristics of the particular candidates. Here in Indiana we re-elected Mitch Daniels in a landslide while giving our electoral votes to Obama, and folks down in Louisiana re-elected Mary Landrieu by a pretty solid margin despite also voting for McCain. Haven’t actually done it, but I could much more easily see myself voting for a Democratic governor some day than for a Democratic senator.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    I’m not saying that you’re wrong, though. I have to remind myself that just because I can find a plausible explanation for something that doesn’t make the explanation correct. :)

  • Tbone

    to this point. Carly can easily close the gap come October and people actually have to define Boxer vs Fiorina.

  • IJB

    And, as I always suspected, I’m beginning to find evidence that the young (left-leaning) CA voters I associate with are finding Jerry Brown too bitter a pill to swallow.

    I can easily conceive of scenarios where Whitman wins (fairly big), but Fiorina loses (barely). (However, I really can’t conceive of the opposite happening…)

  • Oz

    I know at least three HP employees (current and former) who will vote exactly as these polls show.

    They can’t stand Carly …

    That might be at least part of it.

    Carly has a lot of baggage especially in California.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    HP doesn’t employ that many likely voters.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.2010blog.net jsanzone

    For one, Whitman’s campaign has been far more effective than Fiorina’s, as far as imaging. That’s not to say that Fiorina doesn’t have a chance, it’s just going to be a brutal path.

  • tomato

    One can’t help but see the frustration in polls. What we saw in Florida and Alaska is an example how of little use they are. Good for trends, poor for predictions.

    The California Governorship is an open seat, no ruling class are endangered. Boxer losing the seat damages Obama’s ego more. His ego is everything.

    ObamaCare is not threatened by a Republican Governor one bit. A GOP Senator does even by a minuscule. The more incumbents are kicked out in the primaries the more we will see this trend of defending the weak, defenseless, (D) incumbents from extinction from the MSM.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • rdelbov

    RAS almost certainly used the same sample for both polls. Maybe these bitter ender democrats/liberal indies can only bring themselves to poll for one GOP candidate.

    So they like Whitman better.

    In the GE they vote for a democrat for board of equalization or state senate. Perhaps then they can go for both Carly F. and Meg.

    This is a wild idea but after Boxer has won three terms and to be that’s unbelieveable.

  • SIConservative

    I find it hard to believe that there’s that much of a difference between the two races, but I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch for Whitman and Boxer both to be leading. Although both California’s and the federal governments budgets are unsustainable, I think the effects of California’s budget crisis are much more immediately recognizable to voters than the federal problems. The federal government can fund its programs by continuing to print more money (won’t last long, but puts off dealing with the problem). California doesn’t have that luxury.

  • Adjoran

    Governor is an open seat, with a controversial and somewhat clownish Jerry Brown running, who sports a spotty track record having had the office before. He’s also the current Mayor of Oakland and hasn’t exactly turned it into a Garden by the Bay.

    Boxer is an incumbent Senator. Look up the reelection records for incumbent Senators who make it past one term – it’s outlandishly high, 95% the last time I saw it published a few years back. Her record is down-the-line leftist, but that mirrors the California electorate pretty well – Ahnald notwithstanding, it’s been a while since anyone with conservative street cred won a top statewide office.

    Also, it is still just August. Fewer people are paying close attention to the races than will me in another six weeks, so naturally an incumbent is going to benefit from the name recognition in polls leading up . . . . which should serve also as a warning to Harry Reid next door.

  • rdelbov

    all of those reasons. Of course Boxer being under 50% -mostly around 45% puts her at Corzine incumbent levels. Ditto for Reid–Heck Feingold has been at 46% in the last three polls.

    It could under the incumbent versus open seat theory that Boxer’s decline in the poll may be more evident either on election day or weeks before.

    She has not got the “I am an incumbent over 50 % in the polls household seal of safety” yet.

  • Raven

    He’s neck and neck with the “Girly-mahn!”

    On the other hand, Fiorina is a really bad candidate. I’d vote for Boxer before I pulled for Fiorina at this point.

  • IJB

    I’d advise you not to do again.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’s a good way to get banned.

  • Tbone

    Merriam Webster, Inc

    Gentlemen:

    Please accept this recommendation for an additional definition for the phrase. “Plain ‘effing stupid”

    Thank you for your consideration.

    Tbone

  • Tbone
  • Tbone

    Try to keep up.

  • SteveLA

    “I pity the fool”.

  • acat
  • renny

    Must be too much sun wherever you are.

    Vote Rep. for the majority in Cong.and the leadership positions and the staffs.

    Even a bad Rep. candidate of any kind is better than a Boxer who chairs a committee and doesn’t know that “Ma’am” is a term of respect in the military.

  • mboyle1988

    Carly is pro life. Meg is pro choice. This is California Aja first state to legalize abortion. That explains initial five point difference.

    Second difference has been stated. Babs is an incumbent. Moonbeam is not. That explains why leaners are breaking 3-1 for babs but going even in gov race. Carly has a much harder race to win. I wouldn’t count leaners at this point in this race. She’s one point down with momentum but she needs money to define herself and change those leaners.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    So how is it the elephant in the room?

  • Oz

    It’s funny how people who frequent this site don’t want to obey it’s prime directive about supporting the Republican in the general.

    Even on a stupidity test Fiorina edges out Boxer.

  • Oz

    As much as anything though it’s the fact that people in California know more of her stunts at HP than those of us out here …

    But that’s a moot point.

    I’d still vote for her because more Republicans in the Senate is far better for the country than less Republicans.

  • proudgop

    Forgot the issues and just look at the imagery. So many people vote on imagery and I will tell you why Whitman is running strongly

    If you saw Whitman and knew zip about her you would never guess she was a mega rich or was a CEO. She looks like your typical mom at soccer game

    Now I adore Carly but she comes off a bit frosty and I say this because I believe if her handlers made some ads showing a very light side of her the race would move heavily in her favor. She needs crack a smile and bit gentler ( in the debates be tough as nails but Boxer goal is to make her come off as she devil and snide CEO woman she needs to stop voters from believing that).

  • Raven

    But I know I’m not the only one here who knows Fiorina is an excruciatingly bad candidate and will be an even Worse senator.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I don’t like to ban long standing regulars, but I will not have you fouling my threads with your RiNO whining.

  • acat
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    For crying out loud Fiorina is to KBH’s right.

    If we can elect a Californian Senator that’s BETTER than a Texan Senator, it’s time to celebrate.

  • Tbone

    is that it on their printer for some reason.

  • http://opendna.com opendna

    The friends-of-friends of HP employees in California must number in the millions, and you don’t even need to know one to know that she was a disaster for HP. Everyone in the computer/software industry watched it happen, and it was consistently in the papers at the time.

    Oh look. Pissed off HP employees are using social media to spread the word. www.carly-fiorina.com

    It all kinda reminds me of Al Checchi. You remember? The guy who gave us Grey Davis? He was a former Northwest Airlines CEO who touted his business credentials, which were promptly blown out of the water when journalists went to Minnesota to interview employees.